Orioles 2021 Minor League Roster Projections

As exciting as it is to see the Orioles minor league system consistently rising in the ranks of places like Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and Baseball Prospectus since Mike Elias took over running the team we haven’t been able to see the results of that in practice for over a year now. The pandemic shortened season effected  everything in baseball (as well as literally everything else in the world) but the biggest disappointment to me was that we didn’t get a minor league season. One of my favorite things to do every day during baseball season is check the box scores for all the minor league teams and update the stats on the message board. And while there was development going on at the alternate camp in Bowie over the summer and then at the fall instructional camp in Sarasota, we won’t be able to see the fruits of that labor until at least this coming spring. So for this article I decided to put my optimism goggles on and try to predict whose names we will be seeing on those box scores at the start of the 2021 minor league season. The harder prediction might be in what cities each of the four full season clubs will be playing in. It looks like Aberdeen could be taking Frederick’s place but hopefully we’ll have a definitive answer on that relatively soon. I’ll also give each team a watchability rating for those who have MiLB TV or want an order of box scores to check.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

AAA

C – Austin Wynns
1B – Tyler Nevin
2B – Terrin Vavra
3B – Rylan Bannon
SS – Richie Martin
LF – Chris Shaw
CF – Ryan McKenna
RF – Yusniel Diaz
DH – Brett Cumberland

SP – Michael Baumann
SP – Zac Lowther
SP – Alexander Wells
SP – Bruce Zimmermann
SP – Kevin Smith

RP – Zach Pop
RP – Isaac Matson
RP – Cody Sedlock

Watchability Rating: 9/10

Its not very often that the AAA team is also the most watchable as its typically filled with AAAA players and used as a roster overflow for guys who just missed making the end of the roster that can be called up in a pinch. One of the good things about Elias’ methodical style when it comes to promotions is that he wants players to perform at each level and includes AAA. This rating is also probably the least stable because I can envision it dropping as some of the bigger names, such as Yusniel Diaz and most of the pitching, get called up to the big league club. At the same time its deep enough to hold my interest all year and can even get more interesting if/when the top prospects at AA earn a promotion.

This was also the toughest roster to fill out because there is a chance guys like Bannon, Shaw, Martin, Matson, and Zimmermann could break spring training with the Orioles. Players we saw at the major league level for most of 2020 could also make an appearance such as Cedric Mullins and DJ Stewart. There are also players who I didn’t include that will get plenty of playing time off of the bench. Mason McCoy in the infield and Stevie Wilkerson in the outfield as examples. The top arms in the bullpen could be completely different if say Pop gets taken in the rule 5 draft, Matson makes the team out of spring training, and they decide to start Sedlock at AA. Regardless of how it shapes out it looks like AAA will consistently be a team worth checking out as long as Elias is in charge. I could get used to that.

AA

C – Adley Rutschman
1B – J.C. Escarra
2B – Greg Cullen
3B – Cadyn Grenier
SS – Adam Hall
LF – Zach Jarrett
CF – Cole Billingsley
RF – Robert Neumstrom
DH – A.J. Graffanino

SP – Grayson Rodriguez
SP – DL Hall
SP – Kyle Bradish
SP – Brenan Hanifee
SP – Blaine Knight

RP – Zach Muckenhirn
RP – Ofelky Peralta
RP – Adam Stauffer

Watchability Rating: 8/10

This was an interesting call. AA will be exciting because they will most likely have the top three prospects in the Orioles system on the same team to start the season but there is also a bit of a talent gap here with the most filler. To me this is the bridge from the system that Dan Duquette left the new regime to the system that Elias has been putting into place since the winter of 2018. Obviously Rutschman is one of the best prospects in baseball and there is a chance he makes his major league debut at some point in 2021 but I would expect him to at least play at AA for two or three months. Rodriguez and Hall should be here for most if not all of the season. I could see them getting a late call up to AAA similar to Dean Kremer and Bruce Zimmermann in 2019. Kyle Bradish is getting reports from instructional camp that indicate he could be a top 10 prospect but like I noted in the intro it will be hard to be sure of that until we see some reports from live action.

The infield will be interesting in AA as I would expect a rotation between the three shortstops on the roster (Hall, Graffanino, and Grenier) between SS, third base, and DH to make sure they get the necessary at bats. Cullen and Graffanino were recently announced as the players to be named later in the Tommy Milone trade to Atlanta. The outfield cupboard is bare at AA to start the season outside of Neustrom who was in the bottom of my personal top 30 Orioles prospects before an injury filled disappointing 2019. He’ll look to bounce back before the next crop of outfielders leap frog him. The last couple of spots in the rotation I gave to guys outside of the top 30 but who could re-enter that picture with impressive seasons. I think the bullpen could see guys like Peralta and Stauffer who were starters in 2019 but could excel pitching out of the bullpen since there is a deep pool of starter to pull from.

High A

C – Maverick Handley
1B – Andrew Daschbach
2B – Anthony Servideo
3B – Toby Welk
SS – Jordan Westburg
LF – Johnny Rizer
CF – Zach Watson
RF – Kyle Stowers
DH – Joey Ortiz

SP – Drew Rom
SP – Gray Fenter
SP – Leonardo Rodriguez
SP – Nick Vespi
SP – Ryan Wilson

RP – Shelton Perkins
RP – Dallas Litscher
RP – Ryan Conroy

Watchability Rating: 7.5/10

I gave this team the lowest rating but there is a time in the not so recent past where it would be one of the most watchable teams in the Orioles system. There is still a lot to look forward to in high A. On the positional side there is exclusively players drafted by Elias in the starting nine. The 2019 crop of outfielders will get their chance to make a name for themselves after a very brief initial season following the draft and a non-existent 2020. I think 2020 draft picks Westburg and Servideo will split time up the middle as well with a little Joey Ortiz sprinkled in. Handley is known for his defense behind the plate and could be Adley Rutschman’s backup in a few years. Toby Welk was a great story out of the 2019 draft getting drafted late out of a division 3 school but lighting up the stat sheet in Aberdeen. He gets a chance to continue his Cinderella story in 2021.

High A is where we really start to see Mike Elias’ strategy of quantity over quality when it comes to pitching. That’s not to say that the guys he has acquired aren’t quality but he isn’t using high draft picks on highly regarded arms. It appears that he trusts his ability to develop pitchers (and why wouldn’t he after turning the Delmarva pitching staff into strikeout machines in 2019) and is targeting players who have tools that he can work with. I essentially have that successful Shorebirds rotation re-assembling at the next minor league level to try and repeat themselves against tougher competition. The bullpen should also see some guys that appeared as starters in the past like in AA. A pitcher like Dallas Litscher can work multiple innings in relief and slide into the rotation if needed due to promotions or injuries.

Low A

C – Jordan Cannon
1B – James Rolle
2B – Darell Hernaiz
3B – Coby Mayo
SS – Gunnar Henderson
LF – Stiven Acevedo
CF – Hudson Haskins
RF – Heston Kjerstad
DH – J.C. Encarnacion

SP – Kyle Brnovich
SP – Zach Peek
SP – Easton Lucas
SP – Kevin Magee
SP – Dan Hammer

RP – Houston Roth
RP – Kade Strowd
RP – Conor Gillispie

Watchability Rating – 8.5/10

Low A gets the second highest watchability rating from me for a few reasons. First, they should have the Orioles first round pick from this year (and second overall) Heston Kjerstad in right field everyday. If It wasn’t for the undisclosed non-injury related issue that kept him out of the fall instructional camp I might’ve had him starting at High A but with the missed time he will be a little behind his fellow 2020 draftees. Ultimately it shouldn’t be much of a big deal, he can earn his way up a level with some early success. Second would be the high school guys from the past two drafts. Gunnar Henderson has received rave reviews for his work this year in camp with his older teammates. He could move quickly if the reports are accurate at all. Hernaiz is an intriguing infielder who had great patience in the GCL in 2019 and Mayo is our big overslot signing from this year’s draft. He has big power and a big arm over at third base. Another 2020 draft pick, Hudson Haskins, should start here in 2021.

The third reason I’m so interested in this team for next season is the possibility of starting to see some early returns on the Orioles journey into the international pool. I have Stiven Acevedo and James Rolle starting the year in the lineup but it could just as easily be another international signing from the past couple years. The two biggest names I’m looking out for are outfielder Luis Gonzalez and left handed pitcher Luis Ortiz (not the guy we traded Jonathon Schoop for) but there are a bunch of other players who could’ve developed in the meantime who will make a name for themselves in 2021. Fourth and finally is this is the team where I honestly have no idea how the pitching staff is going to shake out. I put the pitchers we received in the Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Villar trades into the rotation and two guys who impressed at Aberdeen in 2019 but it could just as easily be a completely different starting five or six. I’m interested to see who emerges from the group to be a name we are forced to remember.