Note: This article is the second in a series looking at the Orioles 2022 depth chart.
The outfield is without a doubt the strongest position the Orioles have at the major league level and it may also be the deepest position throughout their minor league system as well. Strong enough that the team with the worst record in baseball doesn’t need to add anyone to the mix and may in fact need to remove a player or two to make room for some prospects knocking on the door to the majors.
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You can’t talk about the Orioles situation in the outfield without first and foremost mentioning Cedric Mullins’ breakout season in centerfield. He was the guy anointed as Adam Jones’ replacement in 2018 before struggling so bad in 2019 that not only did he get sent down to AAA Norfolk, he was demoted all the way back to AA Bowie. A solid pandemic shortened 2020 where he bunted for a bunch of base hits put him back on the map as a fourth outfielder type but instead he ditched switch hitting and exploded to a 30/30 season and a ninth place finish in the MVP race despite being on the worst team in the league. And it turned out he did all that after finding out he had Crohn’s Disease in the previous offseason. There is certainly no guarantee that he ever puts up those kinds of numbers again in his career but the underlying numbers indicate that it wasn’t a fluke either. Entering his age 28 season he should be able to provide well above average defense (96th percentile in Outs Above Average), speed, and an OPS >= .750 which is more than enough to start on a contending team at some point over the next few years.
Starting in left field will be another guy who’s name has been on the tip of everyone’s tongue for the past few years when it comes to who will be the next great homegrown outfield prospect, Austin Hays. Finally able to stay healthy enough for 500+ major league at bats he ended the year very strong (.933 OPS over 115 September plate appearances) to all but guarantee himself another crack at living up to his potential. The ceiling may not be what it once was imagined, his aggressive approach at the plate means he’s never going to walk much more than 5-6% of the time and his style of play does leave him more injury prone than others, but he is a dependable defensive outfielder that can play center in a pinch, has a great arm, and enough slashing gap to gap power to do some damage. He should be a great stop gap in a corner outfield spot at least until he reaches arbitration and/or some of the better outfield prospects come up and show they are ready to take over.
The trade winds have been swirling around Anthony Santander ever since his 2020 season was cut short after 37 games in which he put up an OPS of .890 and showed much improved defense in right field, finishing the year as a gold glove finalist for the position. He started last year cold, partially due to hitting into some bad luck, and then injured his ankle early on and was never really able to shake it off. He showed flashes of that same player at the plate in small stretches but ultimately ended the season with a disappointing 18 homeruns and a .719 OPS while being obviously hobbled and limited when he played the field. So once again it feels like we don’t know exactly what the Orioles have on their hands when it comes to Santander. He has been mentioned as a possible trade target whenever the MLB lockout of the players ends but most likely he starts the season as the O’s starting right fielder with a chance to re-establish his value, whether that is to the Orioles or another club.
On the bench to start the 2022 season should be two outfielders who couldn’t be more diametrically opposed. DJ Stewart has been given multiple chances to win a job and has had a couple small stretches that are seemingly impressive enough to keep him around despite provide less than zero value defensively and hovering around a .700 OPS at the plate. He has really good plate discipline and flashes of power but he is easily the most vulnerable player at the position coming into spring training. Ryan McKenna on the other hand is a blazing fast 25 year old who can give you plus defense at all three outfield positions but hasn’t been able to translate his performance at the plate to the major league level yet. He had a .558 OPS over 197 plate appearances despite putting up an OPS over 1.100 at AAA Norfolk over 123 PA’s. He walked over 12% of the time with the Orioles but his 26.8% strikeout rate in AAA expanded to an absurd 37.6% in the big leagues. The difference is McKenna can help the team in other ways until a better option comes along so he has a much longer leash than Stewart.
Speaking of which Kyle Stowers is the guy that put himself on the map heading into the season with an impressive 2021 season covering three levels from A+ Aberdeen to AAA Norfolk. He raised himself into a top 10 prospect in the system according to some people I trust and should be in line to make his major league debut soon after the weather really starts to get warm. He is another guy who has strikeout issues but has been able to make up for it with ridiculous power, good plate discipline, and solid defense in the outfield. If the Orioles need someone to come up from the minors early on and don’t feel that Stowers is quite ready look for Robert Neustrom to get a look. He is another left handed power bat with a more limited profile that could provide the team with some help at the plate. He wasn’t protected by being added to the 40 man roster when he became eligible this offseason so he could be taken from the Orioles in the rule 5 draft but I know the team is hoping he is still around by the time games start back up again.
Some longer shots to play outfield for the Orioles in 2022 are former top prospect and prize return from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade Yusniel Diaz and Zach Watson, a third round pick out of LSU in the 2019 draft. Diaz has continued to disappoint between injuries and poor performance and he had quite his share of both last year. Hitting an abysmal .157 with a .476 OPS over 209 plate appearances with AAA Norfolk and a .606 OPS with AA Bowie he was sent to the Arizona Fall League to try and salvage as much as he could of his season. He looked good early hitting three doubles and a homerun to the tune of a .827 OPS but after just seven games was pulled from the roster with yet another injury. 2022 will be his last chance, at least with the Orioles and being on the 40 man roster. Watson on the other hand had a bit of a breakout season hitting 21 homeruns and stealing 24 bases between A+ Aberdeen and AA Bowie while playing great defense in center field. He doesn’t walk nearly enough and he’s yet to bat above .250 at any level of the minors but he should start the year as AAA Norfolk’s center fielder and like Ryan McKenna has tools that can help a team even if it is ultimately as a part time player.
For more on the Orioles 2022 depth chart, look for the last piece in this series about the Orioles pitching coming from fellow ‘On the Verge’ co-host Nick Stevens.
BSL Analyst
Bob is a co-host of ‘On the Verge’ an Orioles podcast focused on the O’s farm system here on BSL. He used to run the baseball blog ‘The Oriole Report’ before transitioning to podcasting about movies, TV, Video Games, and MMA. ‘The Redbox Report’ movie podcast was started in 2013 followed by ‘The Redbelt Report’ MMA podcast in 2016. Bob has also written for Konsume.com and BaltimoreSportsReport.com and delivers mail for a living in Baltimore County. Follow him on Twitter @TheOrioleReport.