Orioles: 3 Up, 3 Down August 31st

Every week that we have baseball this season, and enjoy every single one because it could disappear at any given moment, I will be taking note of the three hottest Orioles and the three coldest.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

3 Up

Renato Nunez – .278/.381/.667 (1.048), 3 R, 1 double, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 18 AB

What goes does must come up (and vice versa) when it comes to Nunez. It’s an even more limited sample size than most weeks since the Orioles had Monday off and sat out Thursday’s game in Tampa Bay to show solidarity against systemic racism following the shooting of Jacob Blake but it appears he is seeing the ball well again. The big clue for whether or not Nunez is on or off is the walks. Two weeks ago he didn’t walk a single time while he was slumping. Last week he walked twice as he bounced back in a big way. His performance should be enticing to NL teams fighting for a playoff spot with their new DH spots. Jose Martinez and Mitch Moreland made their way over there in the past couple days but the team control make him more valuable to the Orioles and pitching seems to be the biggest need in the market. I would imagine there is a good chance Nunez continues his hot hitting into this week because he really got going this weekend.

Ryan Mountcastle – .421/.450/.737 (1.187), 2 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1 BB, 19 AB

It was already exciting just to have a top prospect come up and get to see him play every day in a season that is sinking faster than the Titanic. Then he got off to a good start last weekend to take some of the pressure off. It might just be a hot streak to start off his career but all we’ve heard during his professional career is that Ryan Mountcastle can flat out rake and so far at the major league level he has proven that is true. Saturday was the first game in his newborn career that he failed to reach base and in the back of my head I worried this could be the start of a slump. Those thoughts were quickly erased when he crushed his first homerun onto the Buffalo highway in his first at bat on Sunday. He barreled another one over the left field wall in his third at bat but not before smacking a single to the opposite field in his second at bat. That all fields approach is what could lead him to be a contender for the batting crown each season. A Hanser Alberto with power perhaps. We started to see some shaky signs on defense but as long as he keeps hitting all will be forgiven.

Paul Fry – 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 3.2 IP, 2 BB, 6 K, 1.09 WHIP

I think its because of one bad outing where he couldn’t get anyone out early in the season but Paul Fry has quietly been excellent this year. His Baseball Savant page is almost completely bright red, which is a good thing, putting him in the 99^th percentile xwOBA, xERA, and xSLG. Hitters just haven’t been able to make clean contact against him. Which is perfect because the only thing he has been below average in is whiff percentage (40^th percentile). He barely threw it last year but Fry has completely ditched his changeup in 2020 and has close to a 50/50 split between his fastball and slider. The spin on his fastball is down, maybe he has found the sweet spot for that. Most likely he has improved the tunneling on his pitches, giving hitters a hard time differentiating between the two until its too late. A smart team might have him on their radar either before the trade deadline today or in the offseason as an under the radar acquisition.

3 Down

Cole Sulser – 0-2, 11.57 ERA, 2.1 IP, 3 BB, 1 K, 2.14 WHIP

O’s manager Brandon Hyde surprised us all when he picked Cole Sulser to be the Orioles closer this year over Mychal Givens (good luck in Colorado). He has surprised us even more by sticking with him through his struggles in high leverage situations. While most of the bullpen has excelled Sulser has been giving up late leads. No better example than this weekend against the Blue Jays. On Friday he had a clean ninth inning to take the game into extra innings but gave up a walk off homerun in the bottom of the 10^th after the Orioles had grabbed a one run lead. On Sunday he came in with the team up by a run again and proceeded to blow the save and take the loss. He is not without his merits, having only given up seven hits over fifteen and a third innings and has been particularly effective against left handed hitters. The problem is he has walked 13 batters and when he does give up hits it has been with runners in scoring position. With the return of Hunter Harvey off of the injured list it would make sense to shift Sulser into a role in the middle innings or perhaps take the role Givens has left behind.

Anthony Santander – .150/.227/.150 (.377), 1 RBI, 2 BB, 7 K, 20 AB

We knew Santander couldn’t stay as hot as he was, legitimately in the running for MVP, but he had a Renato Nunez-esque crash this past week. He did work a couple walks and drove in a run but even his hits were mostly balls that just found a way to fall in. I wonder if he is over-swinging, trying to continue his power surge. Or maybe he just hits much better in Camden Yards. Lucky for him the Orioles return home to face the Mets and Yankees this week. Gerrit Cole must be shaking in his boots in anticipation of pitching to Santander after what happened the last time that happened. In all seriousness he was a big part of the success the O’s had been able to have the past couple weeks so him going cold against two teams that look destined to make the playoffs didn’t help the team very much. Writing this article over the past couple seasons has shown me that even the best players have serious slumps during a season. It’s the guys that show up here repeatedly that you need to worry about.

Rio Ruiz – .063/.118/.063 (.180), 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 16 AB

Speaking of showing up on the ‘3 down’ side of things repeatedly… Ruiz has not been able to regain the form that he started with during the first couple weeks of the season. He hasn’t even been able to get above the Mendoza line the past few weeks. I don’t think that he is suddenly Chris Davis with the bat but it seems clear pitchers have made an adjustment in their approach to him after watching video of his new swing. He has to be the one to make an adjustment now and stop selling out for the long ball. Luckily he is still rock solid on defense at third base otherwise we might be talking about sending him down to the alternate site in Bowie. If he doesn’t turn things around in the final month of the season I think he could be looking at fighting for his job in spring training 2021. With the Orioles acquisition of Terrin Vavra, I could see a scenario where he is playing every day at second base which would push Hanser Alberto over to third.