What should the Orioles accomplish before Spring Training?

This week, the Orioles made a move to bring in Seth Smith. It’s a move that brings in a guy who hits righties very well, will take a walk and usually has a very solid OBP. That sounds great doesn’t it? The problem is, he can only hit right handed pitching and his defense saw a decline last year, at least according to UZR and UZR/150. Perhaps the defensive decline is a 1-year aberration (he had been around league average before 2016) or maybe it is just a guy who is getting into his mid 30s and isn’t going to be a good defensive OFer anymore. However, he is still a decent piece for this team and batting him and Hyun Soo Kim at the top of the lineup vs. right-handed starters should allow a lot of base runners for Machado, Jones and Davis.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

However, what do the O’s do when there is a lefty on the mound? This off-season saw Chris Sale come to Boston. Boston could have as many as 4 lefty starters in their rotation and they will almost certainly have 3. With other lefty starters in the AL East like Sabathia, Smyly, Happ and Liriano, it is imperative that the Orioles add some righty bats that can platoon with Smith and Kim.

It is also imperative that the Orioles improve their corner OF defense. IMO, Kim should go to DH and only start in the OF if there is an injury and/or need to give players a rest. While I am okay with Joey Rickard on the team, I am not okay with him getting 250-300 at bats and chances are, that is going to be the expectation for him as we enter the year. The good news is that he can go to AAA this year and, coming off of his injury, I don’t think he is a lock to make the team. Also, if your goal is to improve the OF defense, then Trumbo can’t be brought back to play the OF. I am against any reasonable contract for Trumbo. Yes, he can DH and yes we do have that spot open but I don’t want his salary for the next 3-4 years. I just don’t think he is that good. Yes, he will likely continue to hit 30+ homers in OPACY but with a poor BA, low OBP and no ability to help you on the bases, he is just too one dimensional for my tastes, at least at the expected contract.

With that in mind, what should the Orioles do between now and the start of spring training? Well, I think the #1 move should be to extend Machado. I would offer him several different deals. One would be a 5-year deal for 135 million. I would offer him a 6 year deal for 170 million and I would offer him a 10 year deal for 310 million, with an opt out after 5 years. If he weren’t willing to sign any of those deals (or at least something close to it), I would go into the season with him playing on his 1-year deal and look to move him over the next 6-9 months. Its probably too late, by the time you do a lot of negotiating, to get something done between now and mid February, so I would let things play out and trade him. I would also look to extend Gausman and Schoop. I would offer Gausman a 5-year deal with a 6th year player option. Something in the area of 5/35 with an option for 18 million would be my offer. Schoop would get something in the same area but probably a little more money. Maybe 5/40 or so. His 6th year option may be for a little less money.

Getting past the extensions, my first move would be to trade Brad Brach. The Orioles have enough late inning right-handed relievers that Brach is a luxury. There is nothing wrong with having a luxury but if you can turn that strength and improve a weakness, I would do that. My goal would be to add a ML ready (or near ML ready), cost controlled OFer. The Orioles reportedly asked for Mallex Smith as part of a deal during trade talks with the Braves. We don’t know what else the O’s asked for but Atlanta obviously felt it was too much. Can the Orioles still get Smith? If not, whom else can they get? Several teams are still looking for relief help. We know the Mets have been after Brach and wanted to trade Granderson (good luck with that) for him. With the addition of Seth Smith, I think we can rule out any deal with the Mets that brings back Jay Bruce or Granderson. I am sure the Orioles would like to get Michael Conforto but I have to think if they could get him, that deal would have been done already.

The Dodgers have been looking for a reliever. Would they deal Puig for Brach? I think there is a good chance they would. It would free up money and obviously, we know they looked to trade Puig this past season. Puig just turned 26 and is signed for very little money through 2018. That time frame would also fit into the window that the team has with guys like Tillman, Britton, Machado and Jones all set to be gone by the end of that year. However, I have my doubts that the Orioles (in particular Buck) would be okay with Puig on the team and while I would be very happy with that deal, I would like to add someone who will be here for longer and is more cost controlled. Can you get Alex Verdugo? At age 20, in AA, he held his own in 2016. He has very solid upside and was ranked #44 by Baseball America in their midseason top 100 this past season. The Dodgers also have a myriad of arms that you could pair with Verdugo that would make for a very solid package. In this case, you would need to add a bat like Desmond Jennings to help you now and allow Verdugo to develop more and perhaps be up midseason to help the club. He is a lefty though, so we would still want that righty bat.

The next move would be to bring back Vance Worley. He did a decent job in his role last year and would provide that you that 6th starter role. The best part of the Seth Smith trade was getting rid of Gallardo, the player who will always be known as a colossal fail by Dan Duquette, not only because you paid him a good amount of money but because he cost you the 14th pick. Him being a poor starter was pretty easy to predict and yet the Orioles missed on that anyway. However, by trading him you did lose that depth that you had and since guys like Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson have proven to not be good as starters, I think we need to add a guy who won’t have an issue going from role to role and an arm you can pile some innings on. The Orioles will have to be careful with Bundy in the first 6-8 weeks this year. I would say to limit him to 75 pitches for the first 6-8 weeks of the year and then let him go. You will need a guy that can soak up innings and not overtax the bullpen early on and Worley will be able to do that.

The next move I would make is sign Greg Holland to a 2 year for 8-10M a year. Now, I know what you are going to say, that I said to trade Brach because he is a luxury and we have plenty of late inning BP arms. That is true.  And yes, I know Holland had TJ surgery and missed 2016 but his arm has a tremendous amount of upside in it. Brach isn’t Greg Holland and Brach allows us to get some cost controlled talent at what is likely his highest value. By adding Holland, you do a few things. First of all, you improve your pen over what it was last year (btw, this is assuming Holland’s arm checks out). Secondly, you set yourself up to trade Britton, a move I think they should do but one they obviously aren’t doing yet. By adding Holland, you have insurance for Britton and can move him while continuing to have an excellent bullpen. On top of that, you could potentially look to move Holland next July (if you aren’t contending of course) and if he is pitching at a high level, you will get a ton for him as well. By trading Britton and Holland in the course of a year or so, you could bring in 6-8 prospects, some of which will be very highly rated, to a poor system and that system may be greatly needed once we get past 2018, depending on who stays and who goes. Of course, you also have the scenario of being able to keep both Holland and Britton and let them be the best back end of the pen in baseball and see if you can win with both of them out there. In other words, you have a lot of options. It is possible that Holland will only sign somewhere where he can close. However, where is the combination of that option and this amount of money coming from? Maybe DC?

The last move would be to sign Ryan Raburn to a 1-year deal. This guy that plays an adequate OF and has always hit lefties well. He can be our new Steve Pearce. I like Trevor Plouffe as well but I feel we need to add another OFer and have Rickard in AAA as depth.

So, all I have done to help the team right now is add Ryan Raburn, Desmond Jennings (probably a 1 year deal for 4-7M), Holland and Worley. I added a guy who is the potential CFer for the future (and corner OFer for right now) and another arm from the Dodgers that could potentially be in the mix, whether the rotation or the pen (depending on which arm it is) sometime in the next year or so (my goal would be to add an arm that could conceivably be in, at least, AA by midseason this year, if not sooner).

Davis, Schoop, Hardy, Manny and Castillo would be the IF. Jones starts in CF. Raburn, Jennings, Mancini, Kim and Smith rotate between the CO and DH spots. That’s 11 spots. Flaherty and Joseph round out the bench for 13 total offensive spots.

Your rotation is Gausman, Tillman, Jimenez, Bundy and Miley. Your pen is Britton, Holland, O’Day, Givens, Hart, and Worley. The final spot will be a competition among NRI and current players but my personal favorite for the spot is Jed Bradley.

I don’t think the Orioles have left themselves with too many great options with the current roster and the way its been set up. There are a lot of potential issues on this team. I don’t like the idea of 3 platoon guys but I also don’t see many ways around that unless the Mets will give you Conforto or some other team steps up to the plate for Brach for another ML ready OFer. So, I chose the route of getting the better player and just being patient with a few stopgaps.

This isn’t the plan (outside of trading Brach and extending the youth) that I would have advocated for before the off-season started but there is value to this plan and there is upside here. I think this team likely contends, the OBP has been improved and the OF defense is improved. It’s still not great but its better and an improvement was needed. You couple that with not signing Trumbo and getting the pick, adding the youth in the Brach deal and you have also looked out for the long term good of the team as well. With the way the roster is currently constructed, I don’t think we can ask for much more than that.