Today, the Orioles completed a trade that sends Mark Trumbo, along with another player, to Baltimore for Mt St Joseph alum Steve Clevenger. When we entered the off-season, Clevenger was the likely back up catcher, behind Joseph. The Orioles thought Wieters would reject the qualifying offer and they had their catchers, although they may have still brought in a veteran to compete with Clevenger.. When Wieters accepted the QO, Clevenger’s role with the team diminished greatly. Yes, he could have potentially been a part time DH or be the third catcher waiting for an injury while playing everyday in Norfolk (although he is out of options, so he would have to get through waivers, which is perhaps not likely) but he was basically a spare part at this point. Yes, he has some upside with the bat and if his defense can even be just okay, he can be a decent back up C / bench player while making very little money. There is some value there but again, guys like that aren’t that tough to find.
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On paper, this sounds like a steal right? Not only are we getting Trumbo, who has shown 30+ homer power in a pitcher’s park (Anaheim), we are also getting another player. They reportedly have two players they are choosing from and the player is reportedly on the Mariners current 40 man roster. While all of that sounds great, this isn’t as good of a deal as it appears.
First of all, Trumbo is projected to earn around 9 million in arbitration for this season. Now, we don’t know what the payroll will be but if we base it off of last year’s payroll, they only have around 15-20 million left to spend for the 2016 roster. Now, with the comments Dan Duquette has made, the Orioles may be taking their payroll well beyond last year’s number and if that happens, the Trumbo salary is less of an issue. Of course, that means this team taking the payroll to heights none of us believe they will take it to but hey, you never know right?
The next issue with Trumbo is his OBP. Trumbo’s career OBP is .300. He doesn’t walk at a good rate (although its not terrible) and his BA isn’t good. His BEST OBP in any season was .317. This team is routinely near the bottom of the league in OBP and Duquette has said several times, that OBP is a focus for this team and they need to improve it. Well, then why are you acquiring guys with poor OBP? This is more talk from Duquette that isn’t backed up by his actions.
Defensively, Trumbo isn’t a good OFer. Last year, he had 150 innings at first base and UZR had him slightly above average but that sample size is so small that his UZR at first is meaningless. Can he play first full time? Would Buck be comfortable putting him in the OF despite the below average defense? Maybe but he is probably a DH. The issue with that is he isn’t good vs right handed pitching. He did a good job versus righties in 2011 and 2012 but other than that, he has only broken a 700 OPS vs righties one time (in 2015) and that was barely over 700 (709). Now, he has been excellent vs lefties but we are talking 150-200 at bats a year vs lefties, so how much is that really worth? Trumbo’s career high fWAR is 2.4.
And, of course, the biggest question on the minds of most O’s fans is how does this impact Chris Davis? Personally, I am not interested in bringing back Davis for his expected contract. Putting that aside, it is fair to wonder how much money is left and what can the Orioles still do to improve this team. Duquette has talked about being able to spend money on a top FA hitter and a TOR starter, which he defined as anything from a 1-3 (OT: Calling a 3rd starter a TOR starter is a joke). He also mentioned acquiring relief and OF help. So, this could be a move where they put him in the OF or they plan on going cheap in the OF now or maybe they will put him at first, let Davis walk and sign Upton or Gordon? There are a lot of possibilities, including keeping Davis and hoping that Trumbo can get back his 30+ homer power and pair him with Davis as one of the best power duos in the majors. Really, that is what this deal is really about. Yes, this deal is questionable in terms of the salary and his OBP limitations. However, you didn’t give up much and there is some level of upside here. If he can regain that power form in OPACY, we are talking about a guy who could hit 35 or more homers, who could give you a 500ish slugging% and could give you 50-60 walks. Its not great but bat him 6th or 7th in your lineup and he could help to lengthen it. The problem is, what else do you do? Are you making major moves still? Or are you adding Denard Span and Gallardo? Is Trumbo someone you are going to need to rely on or is he a spare piece that is an expensive lottery ticket? Will his salary matter in the grand scheme of things or will he hinder them from making bigger and better moves? As of right now, we don’t know all the answers here. On the surface, it looks ok but until we get more answers, we can’t really “grade” this move.
For me, I am skeptical that they will do much more that really impacts the team. I am skeptical they will lure legit FA targets and put the largest deal on the table. For me, this feels like a Davis replacement, not a player to add in addition to Davis. For me, this is the beginning of what I feel will be a poor offseason and that this is a move that says look, we replaced the power we lost in Chris Davis.
This is the first real move of the off-season. The next move or two will determine how good or bad this trade really is. The ball is in your court Mr. Duquette, try not to disappoint us again.
Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight