Orioles: An Embarrassing – And Needed – Season Ends; Bring On The Off-Season

Today, the Baltimore Orioles enter Game 155 of their season. They have 44 wins on the year.  They are 60.5 games out of 1st in the American League East. They are 26.5 games out of 4th!

Somehow, someway they’ve managed to put together a year even worse than the historically horrible 1988 Orioles who started 0-21!

It’s quite possible that they lose the remaining 8 games, and finish with an astounding 118 losses.

Pathetic.
Unfathomable.
Embarrassing.

Needed.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

The 2012-16 Orioles won a lot of games. More than any American League team in that span.
That doesn’t mean they were doing everything correctly.

As Orioles EVP of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette recently stated

“We’re the worst team in the business, but we’re not unlike Kansas City, who had a good run,” Duquette said. “You go through a winning cycle. You don’t draft up high. Your players get older. There is a lot of stress on your resources to replace your players.

“Our situation in Baltimore was we put an inordinate amount of resources into the major league to try and sustain the competitive window. That was a decision by the ownership. Along the way, we didn’t invest in the infrastructure required to sustain it, and by that I mean the international [free agent] recruiting, the analytics, the technology, the front office personnel. The ownership group made a conscious choice to invest money into the major league team to extend the competitiveness of the team a bit longer.”

Had the ’18 Orioles hung around the Wild Card race this year, the ramification might have been a continued refusal to address the reality that larger philosophical changes were needed.

When you fall flat on your face, and you are at complete rock-bottom; it becomes easier to admit the obvious. “What we are doing is not working. At-least no longer working. This is going to require us to adjust.”

I think that’s why I’m not particularly down about the O’s right now.

Yes, they’ve been basically unwatchable all year – but that will begin to change next Spring.

Over the course of the ’19 season, we will see more players introduced who have a chance of being part of the next quality team.

We will get to the off-season here quickly, and there will be complete clarification on Showalter, Duquette and / or their replacements.

Hopefully the Orioles can land Victor Victor Mesa and his Brother.  (All the O’s can do, is control what they can control. Which means offer the most money, and force them to take less elsewhere.)

The O’s have assured themselves of the first pick of the June 2019 Amateur Draft. They’ll get their pick of choice.

Make no mistake, the 2019 season is going to be rough. I do think though, by the 2nd half, we should be seeing some positive signs.

For the record though, just because the O’s ’18 failures have forced them to acknowledge their flaws – that doesn’t mean this will be the catalyst to better days.

That will be determined by their subsequent decision making.

If you are extremely down on the O’s currently and their future prospects, I’m not going to tell you are wrong.

To state the obvious:

– The O’s are starting now as one of the worst single season teams ever.
– NY and Boston will always have high revenue, and for the last 20 years have generally had good decision making as well.
– Tampa Bay’s regime has changed, but ’18 has shown signs this new group also knows how to build an organization with limited revenue.
– The O’s system is middle of the pack, and lacks much (potentially any) difference makers.
– It’s fine to be skeptical of the Angelos Brothers until their actions and results give you reason not to be.

It’s not unfathomable that the O’s could spend the next decade being a doormat.
For those of us 40 and under, 2012-16 was the exception not the rule. What happened in 1998-2011 wasn’t a fluke.

That was organizational ineptness for over a decade!

Naive or not, I believe the messaging the O’s put out this Summer was significant.
The first step in addressing / correcting problems, is acknowledging what got you there.
The second step is putting together a plan to correct.
The third step is enacting that plan.
The fourth step is adjustment and course correction when things / further adversity comes up.

The O’s are basically between step 1 and 2.
They’ve acknowledged their issues, and seemingly have a put together a plan.

Great.

Now you have to enact that, and obviously that’s of greater significance.

(My primary request of the O’s at this point would be to bring in more brainpower to their Baseball Operations Department. Poach from other organizations. Get some differing points of view in the rooms. Don’t have group think. Challenge each other and your preconceptions. Then after discussion / debate, come to agreements, and enact that plan.

As with any plan… once you’ve moved forward with that, you need to have rigorous self-evaluation. What is working? What is not? What adjustments are necessary?)

If I have optimism, it’s because I have a long memory.

I remember how bad the ’88 Orioles were, and how rewarding the ’89 season was.
I know that the ’15-’17 Atlanta Braves lost 90+ games each year, and won the NL East last night.
I know that the ’11-’13 Houston Astros lost 100+ games each year, and won the World Series last year.
I know that the ’11 Chicago Cubs lost 101 games, and won the ’16 World Series.
I know the the ’03 Detroit Tigers lost 119 games, and reached the World Series in ’06.

There are million other examples of turnarounds you could show.

 

Some Thoughts:

1) Two days ago, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale commented on Twitter, “Buck Showalter, the former #Rangers manager, also is expected to be dismissed by the Baltimore #Orioles at the season’s conclusion. Orioles GM Dan Duquette, who got rave reviews for his deadline deals, is expected to receive extension.”

Some people locally want to say that Duquette is the primary reason for the issues the O’s currently face.

That’s just flat out inaccurate.

There is blame and responsibility on Duquette’s shoulders, but the primary culprit has been Peter Angelos.

Some people didn’t like Duquette seemingly not accepting responsibility / accountability for the O’s issues, and ‘shifting’ to Ownership in the quote I showed above. If that was the mandate he was operating under, he’s not throwing them under the bus to say so.

(That said, there are things on his own he should be accountable for.)

If he and the Brothers have come to an agreement about what needs to be done going forward – and the Brothers have said they endorse his plan – and won’t inhibit his plan as Ownership has done previously; then giving Duquette the opportunity to enact his plan is fine in my opinion.

Realize it won’t be for some.

Ultimately, I will judge the Orioles on what they say, and their actions.

Such as, I support the plan Duquette outlined in July.
The recent trading away of International money, I do not.

The Gausman trade was beat to death at the BSL Board.
There’s no doubt they could have got more prospect wise back for him, without trading O’Day. Overall though, I thought the trades they made at the Non-Waiver Deadline were decent enough.

(If you are disappointed they didn’t acquire more difference makers, than your complaint is really that this rebuild should have begun at-least a year prior. The trades made this Summer were reasonable.)

Invest in the Baseball Operations Dept…. increased Scouting, Player Development, Analytics.

Make the changes you said you were going to make as an organization. Do that, I’ll be pleased. Don’t do that, and any remaining optimism will cease to exist.

2) If the Nightengale report proves to be inaccurate, among the candidates I’d like to see considered are:

Jason McLeod – Chicago Cubs, SVP, Player Development & Amateur Scouting
Amiel Sawdaye – Arizona Diamondbacks, SVP, & Assistant General Manager
Mike Elias – Houston Astros, Assistant General Manager, Player Acquisition
Josh Byrnes – LA Dodgers, SVP, Baseball Operations

My BSL Colleague Bob Harkins wrote about Ned Colletti here.

3) If the Nightengale report proves to be accurate, I’m sorry to see Showalter’s tenure end like this.

Buck does a few things which I don’t care for, but I don’t think he has forgotten how to Manage.

I think he has culpability in what has occurred the last two years, but only a percentage thereof.

The O’s spent 2012-18 playing for each individual year. It cost them over ’17 and ’18. They’ve started their rebuild at-least a year late.

You think Buck has culpability with part of that organizational decision making? Good, so do I.

There is only so much on his shoulders though. The roster wasn’t good enough. And it was only torn down further with the moves made. And there wasn’t a waive of internal talent to promote, and the externally added talent wasn’t good enough to make a tangible difference.

Some of the criticism I’ve seen here at BSL and elsewhere feels like overkill.

I absolutely think he could see the O’s through a rebuilding phase, and be the Mgr of the next quality O’s team.

If the O’s don’t want him back, or he doesn’t want to return, I’ll thank him for what he provided, and wish him well.

If he wants to return, and the O’s want him back…. I’d be good with that.

I vacillate some with the importance of a Manager.

Generally I think they get too much credit when things go right, and too much blame when things go wrong.

I think Buck provided credibility to the organization when they needed it. I think a signature of his 2012-16 teams were that they were able to get past bad losses, and be prepared the next night.

I think he’s good with the media. I respect that he keeps issues in house and I think the clubhouse has respected him for that.

I think how he manages over a 162 game season has value.

Again, he bears some responsibility for the last two years.
The O’s are going to lose 110+ games this year. Everyone in a position of authority needs to be accountable for that.

That doesn’t invalidate what he’s accomplished previously.

Messages can go stale…. but that argument means little, when the roster has greatly turned over.

You can find another Manager, and I’m sure you can find a good one.
You can build again without Buck.

But if he wants to be involved, and part of this rebuilding process… I think that should be respected, more than I perceive it will be by some.

You’ve proven you can win and you can lose with Buck. I think if you have a better roster, you can win with him again.

The bottom-line for me with Buck is I want whoever is the GM / EVP BO to decide who they want. I don’t think Buck should be forced on them.

But I do think if Buck wants the job, that GM / EVP BO would be well served by giving Buck every consideration.

4) Renato Nunez and Steve Wilkerson can keep 3rd base warm for Ryan Mountcastle.  Nunez and Wilkerson aren’t guys you build around, but they are fine options to project to use at 3rd to begin ’19. Then you hope after a few months that Mountcastle as done enough to earn a promotion, while staying down long enough for the O’s to gain another year of control.  The metrics have liked Nunez’s defense at 3rd this year, but the eye test says Wilkerson is better.  Wilkerson could be the defensive replacement. Also his ability to serve as an emergency catcher has value.

5) Austin Wynns is 28 in December. Like Nunez and Wilkerson; he is not a prospect. You are not building around him. It’s fine though if he begins ’19 as the starter. The O’s like his defense. He hasn’t been completely overwhelmed offensively. Chance Sisco had a rough year.

Sisco is never going to be plus behind the plate, but he does have to be better vs. what saw this year. Below average is tolerable, a liability is not.

And clearly he stays in the Majors or not long-term based on what he does with the bat. He was poor this year, but I believe his bat will play.

MASN’s Roch Kubatko reported there were issues beyond defense and offense for Sisco.

My guess is that is preparation, but we don’t have a definitive answer there.

If Sisco goes to Spring Training, and looks awesome, and grabs the job…. great.
If not, then he needs to go back to AAA and earn his way back.

6) It’s early, and defensive metrics are noisy (especially with limited sample size); but the early numbers for Mullins in CF are poor.  Victor Victor Mesa is regarded as an exceptional defensive CF. Something to keep in-mind.

On the plus side, Mullins is getting on-base at a high clip. Showing some pop. And looking strong vs. RHP.

7) Tanner Scott gained some valuable experience this year. His K% is excellent. He was strong vs. Lefties. Let’s see if he can build on this year, and make a leap in ’19.

8) Since the All-Star Game, Mancini has slashed .276 / .309 / .489.   Been good to see, after a rough 1st half.  Final numbers will be meh, but I think you can go back to thinking he can be a nice contributing piece. As we head into the off-season, I think you have to look at Mancini as the RF to begin ’19. That’s with the assumption Trumbo isn’t able to be moved. If Trumbo is moved, Mancini can slide to DH.

9) DJ Stewart’s AAA struggles mean more than the quality of hand full of Major League ab’s he has had here in September, but he’s an example of what I talked about above. He might prove to be nothing, but watching a guy who could become a contributor to the next good O’s team is more enjoyable vs. watching guys who definitely will not.

He doesn’t have to be a serious prospect to provide some value.
Ultimately maybe he is a Platoon LF / DH… potentially some time at 1st if there are other moves.
He could be a contributor. Contract cheap for years.

I’d go into the Winter penciling him in for LF.

What I’d like to get to by the end of ’19, is Austin Hays in LF, Mancini at 1st, Stewart at DH, Diaz in RF, and Mullins or VVM in CF. Of course that would mean…Trumbo traded, Davis benched, VVM signed, Hays and Diaz have earned their way, and Stewart has done enough to continue to get regular abs.

10) Entering today, Alex Cobb has gone 3-3, 2.56 era, 59.2 ip, 51 hits, 7 hr’s, 18 bb’s, 39 k’s over 10 starts since the All-Star Break.

Bonus:

For all of the talk about the Orioles using the #1 pick next year on SS Bobby Witt, Jr, the phenom has yet to go his Senior Prom. I’m sure he’ll be among the options the O’s consider next year, but other names will also emerge.

Even if you do take him, and he rockets through the system, 2022 is probably the earliest you see him in the Majors.  Maybe late ’21 if everything goes just right.

The Orioles need to go and find a SS this Winter. Somebody that can capably man position and allow you to feel like you have a legitimate option. Not talking about obtaining an uber prospect here, just someone you can count on to make the routine play at the minimum, and provide some upside.

If they don’t want to do that, they can bring back Tim Beckham for ’19. When he went back to SS this year, after spending all Winter / Spring practicing at 3rd, he had 10 errors in his first 17 games. After that, he has settled in with just 2 errors in the next 28 games.

Here are a few options:

LA Angels: Luis Rengifo
They’ve got Simmons in the Majors, and Kevin Maintan is a better internal prospect at SS.