As we churn through the last gasps of the Baltimore Orioles’ 2019 season, it’s understandable if everybody wants to look ahead to the future – maybe way into the future, or at least into the Adley Rutschman future.
That’s understandable when enduring the expected 100-loss season (though not as bad as the Tigers!) and so we’re fully on board with this exercise, though we’re not going to look too far ahead at the moment. Instead, we’re going to skip ahead to the near future, this coming offseason, and the free agent market.
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There will be some interesting free agents on the market, and given the way things have trended in recent seasons, there might even be some bargains out there. You can certainly rule out some of the bigger names who don’t make sense for a rebuilding team — I’m thinking about guys like Madison Bumgarner, Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon. As much as everyone would love to see them in Baltimore, they don’t make sense given the current state of the franchise and the amount of competition that will be out there for their services.
Instead, we’ll dig a bit deeper and look for some quality players who Mike Elias might be able to land at a decent price, and who will be quality veterans to add to an increasingly young mix – especially if the O’s look to deal players like Trey Mancini, Mychal Givens and Jonathan Villar in the coming months.
Let’s take a look at some interesting options to pursue this offseason:
Dallas Keuchel
Keuchel will probably never again have the kind of season he had in 2015, when he led the AL in wins (20), innings (232) and WHIP (1.017) on his way to the Cy Young award. But it’s still pretty ridiculous that he received so little interest during the offseason before ultimately signing a one-year, $13 million contract with Atlanta in June(!).
At this point, you can pretty much bank on the lefty as a borderline All-Star and Gold Glover every year, with an ERA+ in the 110-140 range. Anyone could use that, including the Orioles, and since he turns just 32 on Jan. 1, it’s not like Keuchel is that long in the tooth just yet.
The key, of course, will be what Keuchel is looking for when it comes to the length of his next contract. Reports pegged his asking price last offseason at five years, $100 million, which again, isn’t that crazy for a pitcher of his caliber, and his career ground ball rate of 59 percent would make him a nice fit for Camden Yards.
But be warned: The qualifying offer suppressed Keuchel’s value last winter, as whoever signed him would have lost a draft pick. That won’t be in play this time around, so whoever wants him might have to offer the kind of deal he was seeking last season.
Zack Wheeler
There is a lot to like about Wheeler, who it seems has been a Mets prospect/trade bait for the last decade. I’m exaggerating, but the right-hander is finally hitting the free agent market at age 29 (he turns 30 in late May). Wheeler has produced a WAR of over 4 in each of his last two seasons, doesn’t give up a ton of homers (1 per 9 inn. this season) and is proving to be a solid, all-around big league pitcher.
While he doesn’t possess the numbers that Keuchel has, he also doesn’t have the mileage, so there is room for growth. Wheeler figures to be one of the most-sought after free agent pitchers on the market, which could impact the Orioles’ chances. But if there is a qualifying offer in play, like there was for Keuchel last season, it could reduce his earning power. That might give the O’s a chance to jump in on a short-term deal.
Alex Wood
The tall lefty with the funky delivery has been saddled with back soreness in 2019, a situation that has turned his first and perhaps only season in Cincinnati into a major disappointment. The Reds thought Wood could be the hidden gem in the trade with the Dodgers that also brought Yaisel Puig to Cincinnati. Not Puig is gone and Wood managed only 35 2/3 innings with a 5.80 ERA. Not good time for him entering free agency, but it might provide an opportunity for the Orioles to swoop in and get a good deal.
Remember it was just two years ago that Wood was an All-Star for the Dodgers, going 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA. The Dodgers used Wood as a back end starter/long reliever, so there is some versatility there, though I believe Wood prefers to start. Either way, when he’s healthy and on he’s very tough to hit, and he would be helped by getting out of the Cincinnati launching pad. Even better, Wood will be just 29 in January.
The injury-riddled 2019 season could leave Wood with a bunch of one-year offers. Perhaps a three-year offer in the $27-30 million range would do the trick?
Collin McHugh
Elias is very familiar with McHugh, as the 32-year-old right-hander has been a Houston Astro since being grabbed off waivers from the Colorado Rockies in 2013. McHugh slid back some this season (98 ERA+, 4.44 FIP) and is currently out with a sore elbow, which is always concerning. But overall he’s been a versatile and reliable option for Houston as both a starter and a reliever, putting together a 3.51 ERA and 112 ERA+ from 2014-18.
His age and relatively small role compared to the previously mentioned pitchers could make McHugh cheaper, too, as he made just $5.8 million in his final year of arbitration. Provided his elbow is sound, McHugh could be a solid and affordable option for Baltimore, as the big spenders will likely be looking elsewhere, and the loaded Astros simply don’t need him.
Dellin Betances
The Yankees activated Betances off the 60-day injured list on Sunday and he returned to action with a nasty assortment of pitches, including his mid-90s fastball, striking out both batters he faced against the Blue Jays. He only threw eight pitches (seven for strikes) but it was a good start for a pitcher who had yet to pitch this season due to shoulder and lat injuries.
Betances was an afterthought of sorts in New York once Aroldis Chapman came around, but in Baltimore he’d probably be The Man in the bullpen, especially if he can get back to his top-notch stuff, which has helped him strike out 14.6/9 innings for his career.
The question for Baltimore is do they even need a closer at this point? And should they spend money on a long-term deal for a guy coming off multiple injuries? It’s a fair question. But it makes sense to monitor the Betances market anyway. If you can get him on a shorter-term deal, he’s worth a shot.
Didi Gregorius
Speaking of Yankees, Gregorius is another stud who recently fell on hard times. From 2017-18, He hit 52 homers and 50 doubles, struck out only 139 times and put up an OPS+ of 114. And that’s just on offense. According to Fangraphs, the shortstop also had a defensive WAR of 12.9 and 9.8, respectively, over those two seasons as well.
This year Gregorius has underperformed since returning from Tommy John surgery, which is understandable. If the Yankees make him a qualifying offer, he might accept it. But if he doesn’t and becomes a free agent, the draft pick compensation in addition to his recent injury might suppress his price and allow the Orioles to sneak in there and get themselves a bargain – or at least a lower-risk short-term deal. Gregorius at his best is the kind of two-way player you pay to get, and he’s still just 29 (30 in February).
That being said, with Xander Bogaerts getting an extension in Boston and Elvis Andrus unlikely to opt out in Texas, Gregorius will clearly be the best shortstop on the market. That might lead the Orioles to look at other options.
Jose Iglesias
Speaking of other options …
Iglesias is similar to Gregorius in that he’s also 29 years old and he also plays shortstop. Otherwise he’s a vastly different player. Iglesias has virtually no power (career .371 slugging percentage), and rarely walks (4.5% for his career). He also rarely strikes out (12.2%), which is nice, and has a career-high 11 home runs in the friendly confines of Cincinnati this season.
But where Iglesias makes his mark is with the glove, where he is consistently a top 5 shortstop in defensive WAR (FanGraphs). Imagine how good young Orioles pitchers would feel having Iglesias behind him sucking up all those ground balls. Would it be worth 2-3 years at $9 million per? I think it would.
Orioles Analyst
Bob Harkins is a veteran journalist who has worked as a writer, editor and producer for numerous outlets, including 13 years at NBCSports.com. He is also the creator of the Razed Sports documentary podcast and the founder of Story Hangar, a network of documentary podcasters.