Orioles: From Baseball’s Worst In ’21, To Contention In ’23

The Baltimore Orioles were swept in a double-header yesterday in Chicago, and have now lost 12 games in a row, falling to 17-35 overall.

The Orioles weren’t expected to be good this year – I predicted 68 wins – but there was rationale hope in my opinion that they wouldn’t be a complete dumpster fire.

With 110 games left on the schedule, the O’s have been baseball’s worst team through the initial 32% of the ’21 schedule.

Some look at the current product, coupled with some of the all-time worst Orioles teams (’18, and ’19) and have completely checked out. We’ve reached Year 5 (Year 3 of the Mike Elias era) of the O’s being a very poor team.

If you are apathetic to the O’s at this point – I can’t blame you. If you are a fan, it’s not an enjoyable product in any sense. You’ve got to have some masochistic tendencies to invest multiple hours a day watching your team get their brains bashed in.

If after a year of this pandemic, you want to go and spend your days out and about not paying attention to the Orioles – God Bless You! If you are staying in, and would rather watch another episode of Property Brothers, I get that too! I don’t think that makes you a bad fan, I think that makes you human. Sports are entertainment, and should be a diversion from other aspects of life. If you aren’t entertained, nobody can blame you if you need to step away and use that time you would normally be watching the Birds to go and do something else!

Here’s what I will say though – the ’21 Orioles are currently baseball’s worst team – but the ’23 Orioles can (and should) be a legitimate contender!

That opinion currently puts me out on a limb by myself, and sounds plain kooky to many.

I’m not always right and in-fact I’ve been spectacularly wrong before (cough Chris Davis extension cough). But I feel really good about the O’s ability to contend in ’23. If we get to ’23 and the Orioles remain abysmal, you can rightfully pull this article up and remind me how wrong I was.

It’s one of those things were time will tell, and we will see what the ultimate results are.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Here is why here in late May ’21, in the throughs of a laughably bad stretch for the ’21 Birds, I expect the ’23 Orioles to be a legitimate contender:

• No, I’m not expecting Adley Rutschman to ascend and be the Orioles savior. What I’m expecting is that Rutschman will take over as the O’s everyday catcher by this time next year. He’ll have had 4 plus months in ’22 to begin to acclimate himself to the Major Leagues. What is he going to be long-term? Buster Posey or Matt Wieters? I have no idea. Maybe something in-between? The expectation should be a productive ML starter, with additional upside. He’s got a .905 OPS through 69 AA ab’s.

• DL Hall has 31 k’s in 16 AA innings. Grayson Rodriguez was overwhelming guys at Aberdeen, and is joining Hall and Rutschman at Bowie. The easiest path for the Orioles getting really good in a hurry, is Rutschman / Hall / Rodriguez each reaching their ceiling very early once they get to get to the Majors. That’s not overly realistic. Development is not linear. They will ascend, they will have lumps and adjustments. What is realistic is believing Hall and Rodriguez will be joining Rutschman in Baltimore by this time next year. They don’t have to be immediate Cy Young level starters to help the Orioles in the near-term. They’ll be in position to get their feet wet in ’22, and take another leap in ’23. Maybe they won’t be consistent enough in ’23 to be considered front-end starters. If they are league average 3rd / 4th starters who flash their upside; that can help plenty.

• The Orioles are getting nothing out of 2nd base currently. Internally they have two options in Jahmai Jones, and Terrin Vavra they feel good about. Both could completely flame out and never give the Orioles any production. Both have enough upside where you can envision them as a productive starting 2nd baseman.

• Jordan Westburg and Gunnar Henderson are crushing things at Low A Delmarva. Both are too far away to count on, but a realistic path for both is moving to High A Aberedeen in the 2nd half of ’21, and beginning ’22 at AA Bowie. Maybe they spend all of ’22 at Bowie, and begin ’23 at AAA Norfolk. Their subsequent progression will be dictated by their performance obviously. Everyone who sees them believes in their talent. If the O’s don’t add external options at SS and 3rd, it’s not crazy at all to believe there is a reasonable path to Westburg and Henderson holding down the leftside of the Orioles infield at some point during the ’23 season.

• You can rightfully question Austin Hays’ ability to stay healthy. You could look at Cedric Mullins and believe despite his stretch to begin ’21, his ultimate future is that of a 4th OF. You can wonder if Anthony Santander will ever get on-base at a high enough clip. You can wonder if Yusniel Diaz will get back into the Norfolk Tides lineup and produce enough to earn his way up. All legitimate questions / concerns. It’s also fair imo to say that Hays all-around skills are obvious, that Mullins is a plus defender and can be a productive starter if he can be a .750 OPS guy, that Santander is at-least competent defensively and couples that with real power, and that 24 year old Diaz’s future is not written. He might be generally forgotten / disregarded by the majority of Oriole fans at this point; but he can put himself in the Orioles OF mix if he rips up AAA the next few months. Should the health issues which have plagued Heston Kjerstad since he joined the Orioles organization last year now be behind him – it shouldn’t shock people if he’s also in the mix to join the O’s at some point in the ’23 season.

• I’ve written before, I expect the Orioles to announce an extension with Trey Mancini later this year. If I’m wrong and they move him; that’s fine. There are multiple ways to build a team. If the O’s trade him, they most certainly won’t be giving him away. It will be because they felt the package coming back was too much to turn down. As is, he’s under team-control (Arbitration eligible) through next year.

• People equate the Orioles pending decision with Mancini as a 1×1 equal with what will happen with John Means. It’s similar, but with Means being under team-control through ’24; it’s also different. As with Mancini, I’m anticipating an extension deal will be announced. Something that buys out his arbitration years, and tacks on a year or two of his would be Free Agency. I’d be more annoyed by a trade of Means vs. a trade of Mancini. If Means is traded here in ’21, the return is going to be immense.

• The most disappointing aspect of this ’21 season to-date isn’t the Orioles being 18 games under .500; it’s Ryan Mountcastle sporting a .614 OPS here at the end of May. That said, the Orioles aren’t going to need Mountcastle to play like an MVP for him to provide plenty of value. They are going to need him to play like the player he projects to be. An .800 +/- OPS bat that makes very little money. If he’s that, that’s going to be a very productive piece. If you think his struggles so far here in ’21 are indicative of what he’s going to be going forward – okay – but I don’t. All I think this 173 ab stretch has shown, is that his plate discipline issues which have been on full display will prevent him from becoming a star. He doesn’t have to become a star to help.

• Like Mountcastle, Dean Kremer has had a rough stretch. Like Mountcastle, I still think he can help a roster. Between Kremer, Keegan Akin, Michael Baumann, Zac Lowther, Bruce Zimmermann, Alex Wells, Kyle Bradish, and Kevin Smith; I think the Orioles can develop two league average back-of-the-rotation starters, and two usable relievers by ’23.

• Tanner Scott, Dillon Tate, Hunter Harvey. They could all flame out and give the Orioles exactly nothing; and they all have the talent where it’s believable they could help a quality Orioles team. Hopefully we’ll have more information on each when this ’21 season ends.

• There are current Mock Drafts (example 1, example 2) which have the Orioles having a chance to select one of the two Vanderbilt starters – Jack Leiter or Kumar Rocker – in the coming Draft. If the Orioles happen to draft either one, my expectation will be that they will be joining the Orioles rotation in mid-’23. Start ’22 at Aberdeen. Mid-year ’22 at Bowie. Start ’23 at AAA. Means, Rodriguez, Hall, Leiter? Yes, please.

• The 2017 Orioles Opening Day salary was $164M. The money currently obligated to the ’23 Orioles is peanuts. Even if you include extensions for Mancini and Means; and include Arbitration raises for others – it’s nothing. If you believe the Orioles will again spend +/- $150M (or at-least will have the capability of doing so) when they are ready to contend; the Orioles will have the payroll flexibility to add anywhere they want to their existing roster.

• To summarize; by mid May ’22 the Orioles have their answer at C in Rutschman. If Mancini is extended, the Orioles have two good options at 1st and DH with him and Mountcastle. In Jones and Vavra, the Orioles have two possibilities with upside for 2nd. In Hays, Mullins, Santander, and Diaz; the Orioles have reasonable options in the OF. In Means, Rodriguez, Hall, Kremer, Akin, Bauman, Lowther, and possibly the ’21 1st rounder; they’ve got the makings internally of 3/5s to 4/5s of a quality rotation. Every guy mentioned above doesn’t have to hit their ceilings, for the Orioles to get good quickly. They’ve got fall back options and built-in competition at multiple spots.

• With respect to Freddy Galvis’ current .813 OPS, there are upgrades available after this season at SS. There are also upgrades available at 3rd. The Orioles won’t be ready to compete in ’22, but that doesn’t matter. Go use some of that payroll flexibility and add some real pieces. Same thing for the rotation. Same thing for the bullpen. The Orioles are never going to compete if they can’t develop some of their own talent. But I believe they have enough existing pieces internally (and coming) that they can go and add externally and build a team that can and should compete in ’23. It should also be noted that as the organizational depth continues to grow, they can also utilize some of that growing depth to address issues of weakness.

The Orioles have enough going for them at this point, that I think it would take a real failure of imagination and frankly effort; to not build a competitor by ’23. As we described initially, apathy has set-in for many Orioles fans. For those paying attention, patience is waning. It’s on Elias and Orioles Ownership to turn the existing pieces and resources into a palatable meal. Pressure should and will be on the Orioles this coming Winter to make clear tangible improvements.