Orioles: Last 7, Next 7 April 15th Report

With a 6-3 victory in Chicago last night, the Baltimore Orioles improved to 8-6 on the year.
In their last 7 games, the O’s are 4-3.

Everyone has blind spots, myself certainly included.
One of my limitations is that I can be slow to move on from my earliest opinions.
Another limitation (and occasional strength) is that I can clutch to limited sample size, when immediate current realties don’t match with historical precedent.

Sometimes the eyes see something, and the numbers say another.
Sometimes the eyes are wrong.
Sometimes numbers lie.

With our game threads here at BSL, and with the benefits of Social Media like Twitter, and Facebook; you get everyone’s opinions and reactions in real time.
That can be maddening for me at times, because I watch people make what I perceive to be reactionary snap judgements that often fly in the face of what I think ‘should’ be realistic expectations for certain players.
Often I think those immediate reactions get proven wrong overtime.
Other times though, those snap judgements are correct.

That’s baseball, and that’s life.
History can guide us.
And then sometimes things change, and you have to adjust your previous thinking.

14 games in a 162 game season is roughly 9% of a season.
That’s not nothing.

We as fans can have fun deciding how much weight we give to the results we are currently seeing.
What will average out, and what won’t.
Mike Elias and the Front Office have to make their own evaluations as they try and navigate this Orioles season to the post-season.

Case Example #1 – Cole Irvin

Irvin was acquired to provide the Orioles reliable innings.
Nothing in his background said ‘front-end’ starter, but 62 starts, and 360 innings over ’21, and ’22 told you the expectation was for the lefty to regularly take the ball.
3 rough starts to begin his Oriole tenure, and he’s been optioned to Norfolk.
That tells you multiple things. The O’s are playing for today.  Each game matters, and with the current performance lacking; they felt they had to make an immediate move.
Look to course correct him in AAA, and get him right in that environment.
It would be pretty shocking to me if Irvin didn’t end this year with 23+ Major League starts, but him finding his way to Norfolk before Tax Day is nearly as much of a surprise.

Case Example #2 – Dean Kremer

Kremer was left for dead by O’s fans after an abysmal ’21 season at both the ML and AAA levels.
Kremer resurrected himself in ’22, with 125 strong innings for the Orioles.
Here in ’23, it’s been a rough go in his 3 outings, with the 27 year old already allowing 5 homers.
Both the ’21, and ’22 seasons tell a tale. They showed what he could be at his worst, and his best.
I’d think somewhere between those highs and lows would tell the story of who he is.
Because of the upside he showed last year, I’d like to think he can find himself, and thus continue to give him opportunities.
3 starts and 12.1 innings in ’23 only tells you so much.
I also don’t think what Kremer did last year was smoke and mirrors.
The flip-side though is ’23 is not a try out camp, and these games in April matter as much as any games in September.
He doesn’t have unlimited rope.

Case Example #3 – Anthony Santander

Tony is sporting a .491 OPS through 48 ab’s.
He’s yet to homer.
He has 5 walks vs. 19 k’s.
He’s in a poor funk.
He’s also obviously better than this.
He’s a .749 OPS guy in over 1,687 career ab’s entering today.
He had a .773 OPS last year with 33 homers.
And we said coming off of that season, he’s probably not a long-term piece, but he can help in the immediate until further youth knocks him out of a spot; or you trade him as a piece for something else.
You don’t give up on him now.
You continue to give him ab’s (you can bat him lower), and let him work his way out of this start.
Obviously numbers can change in a hurry at this point in the season.
If you want to trade him, do so when he goes on an offensive run.
If you want to release him, give me a reason to believe these 48 ab’s here in ’23 should carry significantly more weight vs. what we’ve seen from him previously?

Case Example #4 – Cedric Mullins

Like Santander, Mullins has started off ’23 as a mess.
The O’s CF is batting .192 over 52 ab’s, with 3 xbh’s.
He’s hitting just .147 vs. RHP.
Like Kremer, Mullins was left for dead by O’s fans after his horrible ’19 season in the Majors and Minors.
He rebounded some in ’20.
’21 was a monster year.
’22 was productive.
You should expect the light to turn on, and for him to get hot, and for the numbers to even out.

Case Example #5 – Austin Hays

Austin has a .333 batting average, and an OPS around 1.000.
Yeah, as much as I like the guy, history tells us he’s not doing that all season.
The eyes and numbers also say he’s been below average in LF.
Last year, his Outs Above Average fell off a cliff after July and he ended up -6 for year, which is poor.
(He did grade out above average via Defensive Runs Saved, and UZR / 150.)
For his career, he’s been a quality defensive OF, with a very strong arm.
And while he has made several miscues on balls this year, he’s also made a couple highlights.
So, what should we expect here?
Players can have defensive funks just like they do with the bat.
Sometimes lingering health issues can have impact.
The statcast data shows a trend though, where his reaction and burst continues to trend down.
His routes (down this year) have still been good the last couple of years.
His sprint speed is 27.6 feet per second which has him in the 71% percentile; but he was at 28.6 in ’19, which had him in the 86% percentile.
That foot of a difference, could be the difference between him being above-average defensively, and average-to-below average with the glove.
With the current configurations of OPACY; the O’s need him be at-least average ish.
It’s great to see him off to a strong start offensively, but as we’ve said; the pressure is on.
He’s got to continue to perform, and the glove is part of the equation.

Case Example #6 – Kyle Stowers

I had Stowers penciled in for 450 ab’s this year.
Even though he’s been sent to the Minors already; I’m still expecting him to be a regular starter in Baltimore the majority of this year.
Definitely was wrong on how they intended to use him to begin the year.
Just feel at some point, he’s going to get regular ab’s in RF, with Santander getting more time in DH.
But right now, with the O’s looking to rotate guys in at DH, and with the O’s not going to bury Santander after 48 ab’s; those ab’s just aren’t available.
In that sense, it’s good that Stowers went back to the Minors and is playing everyday vs. languishing unused on the Oriole bench.
If the O’s just don’t believe in the guy, hopefully he lights up AAA, and the O’s can use him as part of a trade package.

Gunnar & Adley

Henderson appears to be pressing a bit.
You carry that look when you are the #1 prospect in the game, and you are 6 for 40 in your first full season in the bigs.
What I like is that while he’s obviously frustrated right now, he already had 12 walks.
Baseball is always about adjustments.
The 21 year old young man is adjusting to the bigs.
It will turn for him.
Hopefully see some hits fall in for him this next week, and he can begin to relax.

Adley of course had the game winning homer Thursday vs. Oakland.
He’s sporting a nice little 1.134 OPS and his current projected numbers are insane.
Right now, he’s looking like one of the absolute best players in the game.
His floor is regular All-Star.
His ceiling is MVP caliber.
I do continue to wonder how many games he gets behind the plate.
You don’t want to wear him down, to the point that it impacts his offense.

Ryan Mountcastle’s 9 RBI

I know nobody likes taking about RBI in 2023, but 9 rbi is a night to remember!
Mountcastle’s outburst Tuesday night tied Eddie Murray’s and Jim Gentile’s franchise record for a game.
Right now, he’s in the 94th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, 94th in Barrell Percentage.
He’s making $738k this year, and he’s not a Free Agent until after ’26.
Yeah, he’s not going to knock in the 220 rbi he’s currently on-pace for, but he’s a contributing part to the lineup, especially at his current salary.
He’s only 26.
Wouldn’t be opposed at all to buying out his arbitration years, and tacking on two years of Free Agency.

The Bullpen

Going to be easier to judge when Mychal Givens and Dillon Tate are back.
Also going to be easier to judge when the rotation is hopefully more settled in-front of them.
Still, there are some reasons for unease.
Cionel Perez has allowed 15 hits in 7 innings.
Keegan Akins has allowed 8 hits in 4.1 innings. He’s out right now paternity leave.
Austin Voth has been ’22 Washington National Austin Voth, and not anywhere near ’22 Baltimore Oriole Austin Voth. He’s allowed 5 homers already!
Ideally would have wanted Tyler Wells helping the pen, but he’s currently needed in the rotation.
On the plus side, Felix Bautista is ridiculous.
Danny Coulombe has been very useful so far.
Bryan Baker looks like his ’22 self, which was very useable, even if you weren’t always comfortable.
No clue what the O’s have in Logan Gillaspie, but you can see why they like the arm.
Mike Baumann got the W last night, and has only allowed 1 er in 5 outings.
Yennier Cano certainly looked the part last night.
Spencer Watkins is back up after Irvin’s demotion. Clearly don’t want to have to rely on Watkins, but as a spot starter, and maybe pen help, that’s a reasonable ask.

Overall it’s a patch job until Givens and Tate return; and even then you might need to find one more arm.

The Rotation

Kyle Bradish had his rehab outing in Bowie, and should be good to make his next start.
Kyle Gibson is starting today in Chicago, and obviously has his spot locked.
Wells had another productive start yesterday, and will be starting Friday vs. Detroit.
Grayson Rodriguez is starting tomorrow.
Kremer is scheduled to start Tuesday at Washington.
Does Irvin come back up quickly?
I’d think that’s partly on him, and partly on what the O’s see from Rodriguez and Kremer this next time through.

My general take on Rodriguez is that I’d like to see him stay in the ML rotation.
I think for the year, he’ll pitch like a league average 3rd to 5th starter, that sometimes flashes front-end stuff and sometimes struggles.
i.e. he’ll be what he is, a very talented rookie, that is breaking into the Majors and looking for consistency.

If Kremer has to be removed from the rotation, and Irvin doesn’t quickly earn his way back up; things start to look a little dicey.
You definitely need Bradish to slide back in and start to look consistently reliable.

The Next 7

Two more games in Chicago, including today.
That’s followed by an off-day Monday, and two games in DC.
Then 3 games at home over the weekend vs. Detroit.
The last game in this next 7 game stretch will be Boston at home Monday the 24th.

You got the series opener vs. the White Sox yesterday.
Win one of these last two, and get the series w.
The Nationals are currently 4-10 overall, and have lost their last 3 entering today.
You need to at-least split that 2 game trip.
Detroit is 4-9 entering today.  At home, that’s a series you need to win as well.
The O’s lost the opening series of the year in Boston. You’ll want to flip that script at home.
The Red Sox are currently 6-8, 2 games back of the O’s in the East.