Welcome to June!
Two months into this 2023 season, the Baltimore Orioles are 35-21 overall, and have established themselves as one of baseball’s better teams.
Over the last 7 games, the O’s went 3-4, losing home series to both Texas, and Cleveland.
In a 162 game season, even the best teams will face adversity.
Times where there are injuries and poor play.
I’m of the opinion that things tend to even out.
If a team or individual is playing significantly above their head, at some point they come back to Earth a bit.
If a team or individual is struggling beyond reasonable expectations; typically a hot-spell is around the corner.
Think Jorge Mateo’s April, and Jorge Mateo’s May.
The Orioles were on a 106 win pace entering this last week.
There really isn’t much reason to think they are that good.
But being 14 games over .500 as June begins is a real indication that this is a team very capable of getting to the playoffs.
There are 35 real W’s which have already been banked.
The sky isn’t falling because the O’s had an off-week.
The sky won’t be falling if the O’s play .500 ball in June.
If anything, this past week just reminds that there is work to be done in-terms of not just reaching the post-season, but in-terms of being a legitimate World Series contender once there.
Quick Hits:
1) Tough blow losing Cedric Mullins to the groin injury. Injuries of course happen. We will see how long he ends up being out. O’s GM Mike Elias has characterized the injury as something that will cost Mullins weeks vs. months. Mullins was having an All-Star caliber year. For at-least some weeks, you lose him at the top of the lineup, and you lose his defense in Center. I’m of the opinion that while he’s out, Ryan McKenna should be getting everyday at-bats in CF, as I think McKenna is a quality defensive player. I also think McKenna has some pop in the bat, that might come to life some with being in the lineup each day vs. once a week. One word of caution there, McKenna has really struggled (very small sample size, 24 ab’s) vs. RHP this year. That has to quickly improve, or the O’s will have to look to other options.
2) Cionel Perez, and Austin Voth were strong contributors in the O’s 2022 season. That’s why when they got off to poor starts here in ’23, I wasn’t willing to immediately cut-bait. You wanted to see if they could find themselves. And both pitchers responded with better May’s than what they showed in April. That said, I don’t have a lot of confidence in either right now, and they’ve got to be close to the chopping block.
3) Similarly, Mychal Givens had a number of quality years with the Birds in his initial stint in Baltimore, and was productive last year with the Cubs and Mets. I thought he could help the O’s this year. Was disappointed by his injury, and excited when he was activated. He’s thrown 4 innings over 6 outings so far, and it just doesn’t look good. His fastball velocity has dropped 2 miles from last year, and he looks like he is carrying extra weight. Certainly heavier from his earlier Oriole days, but I don’t know if more than last year. He just turned 33. I wanted to give him a longer leash, and believe he could add some depth to the ‘pen, but I’m pretty skeptical based on what I’ve seen.
4) With Dillon Tate still injured, and with concerns over the aforementioned 3 above (could also include Keegan Akin), where does the bullpen go from here? Yennier Cano is showing he’s not quite invincible, but you of course still feel very good there. Felix Bautista might be the best closer in the game currently. Bryan Baker, Danny Coulombe, and Mike Baumann will have ups and downs; but generally you currently feel good about each. But I think you are at a point in the year where you can really start the AAA carousel and see who can come up and contribute out of the pen. DL Hall, Nick Vespi, Bruce Zimmermann, Spencer Watkins, Drew Rom, Logan Gillaspie, Joey Krehbiel; you’ve got some internal options. Clearly Hall has taken a step back as an elite starting pitching prospect, but everyone still loves his arm talent. There is definitely some hope there of him not just being a passable contributor, but of him becoming an elite bullpen arm. I’d be ready to take a look.
5) That bullpen game the O’s had Wednesday was horrific. It’s time to get Cole Irvin back up from Norfolk and into the O’s rotation. Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, and Tyler Wells are doing a good job of regularly giving the O’s a chance. Irvin should fit right in there. At some point Grayson Rodriguez figures to be back up. If a rotation spot doesn’t develop in ’23; Rodriguez could be another option to add to the Orioles ’23 bullpen at some point.
6) How you would prioritize what the O’s need to add or should be looking to add at the trading deadline is a difficult question. There are multiple ways the O’s could go, and a large part of it comes down to availability. If you could find a definitive front-end starter, I could get on-board there. But I’m not real excited about the idea of adding another starter similar to what you already have. I don’t see the point. Some quality relievers should always be available, and that seems like a place where the O’s should be expected to get something done. On the other-hand, if some of Hall, etc come up and are helping out, or if Tate finds his health and looks ready to go; it’s less of a need. I do find myself at times thinking they could use another bat, but the O’s are 8th overall in runs scored, 11th in slugging percentage, 12th in on-base percentage. While I’m a Ryan Mountcastle fan, his current .710 OPS overall, and .560 OPS vs. RHP is a problem. It’s not good enough. He’s definitely under the gun to get hot in June, or he could find himself being the odd one out.
7) Gunnar Henderson had a .740 OPS in May, with 9 XBH’s in 80 ab’s. The O’s are going to protect him vs. lefties the rest of this year, but I wouldn’t have a hard-and-fast rule that he doesn’t play vs. lefties. You want him to be gaining experience, and becoming more comfortable.
8) Jordan Westburg has had 197 ab’s at AAA Norfolk this year. He has a .315 batting average, .386 on-base percentage, and is slugging .619. He’s played 22 games at SS, 14 games at 3rd, 5 games at 2nd, 5 games in RF, 2 games at DH, and 1 game in LF. The position versatility helps and hurts in my opinion. If he’s good enough to stand at multiple positions and not hurt you, that’s great. He can help a roster at multiple spots, and you’ve increased your roster depth and versatility. But what catches my eye, is that he’s played just 5 games at 2nd. That’s the position I’ve been advocating for him with the O’s, and if they liked him better there – would be the position he’d figure to be getting more time at right now with the Tides. Jackson Holliday is going to be the O’s SS as early as mid-’24. Gunnar Henderson has 3rd for the foreseeable future. If you don’t want Westburg regularly at 2nd, how about 1st? You might give up a little offense with him at 1st, but he’d figure to be above-average defensively there. Another option is that Westburg becomes part of trade package. My preference for Westburg would remain to play him at 2nd until / if he shows he’s a liability there.
We will see what Mateo does in June, but there has to be a non-zero chance that Joey Ortiz takes over SS for the Birds by July.
Colton Cowser is also of course knocking on the door. .331 average, .469 on-base %, .554 slugging %.
Let’s assume Mullins is back in CF by July 1st. Is Cowser up at that point, playing everyday in LF (with Austin Hays’ superior arm in RF), and Anthony Santander getting most of his ab’s at DH?
9) Adley Rutschman, and Mullins currently lead the Orioles in fWAR at 1.8 each. Cano is 3rd at 1.5. Hays and Gibson are tied for 4th at 1.1.
10) The O’s are 35-21. There are 105 games left in this year. To finish .500, the O’s need to win 46 of their remaining games. To finish with 86 wins, the O’s need to 51 of their remaining games. To finish with 92 wins, the O’s have to win 57 of their remaining games.
Next 7 Games:
June 2nd – 4th @ San Francisco
June 6th – 8th @ Milwaukee
June 9th – Kansas City
The Giants are 28-28, in 3rd place in the NL West. They’ve gone 6-4 in their last 10 games overall, and are 16-13 at home.
The Brewers are 29-27, leading the NL Central. They’ve gone 4-6 in their last 10. Despite leading the Central, they have a -26 run differential.
The Royals are 17-39 overall, and have been outscored by 70 runs.
Coming off back-to-back series losses, the only immediate focus should be trying to leave San Francisco with a series win.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.