With yesterday’s 5-3 victory in Detroit, the Baltimore Orioles are 19-9 overall as May begins. The O’s went 5-2 over their last 7 games, adding two more series wins.
Baltimore has now won their last 6 series overall, with a day off today, before beginning a 3 game set in Kansas City tomorrow.

The 28 games already in the books represents 17% of the 162 game regular season marathon.
Already being 10 games over .500 is nothing to be sneezed at.
Playoff odds have risen significantly.  (FanGraphs currently gives the O’s a 34.8% chance of reaching the post-season.)
Expectations have been raised.
And with those rising expectations, comes an equal doze of increased scrutiny.

There is a daily dance between what the eyes see with current and immediate results; and balancing that with what should be reasonable expectations for individual players and the team as a whole.
As fans, if we want to drink all the orange kool-aid we can, that’s our prerogative.
Similarly, if we want to look at some numbers and see nothing but gathering storm clouds on the horizon; that’s fine too.
Ultimately our fandom doesn’t change what happens between the lines; no matter how loud we yell at the tv.

That us as fans.
Obviously Orioles GM Mike Elias doesn’t have that luxury.
There are real decisions and evaluations to be made, which will impact where the ’23 Orioles go from here.

Quick Hits: 

1) I think Dean Kremer is a guy capable of starting on a quality team. I also wrote a couple of weeks ago though, this ’23 team isn’t a try-out camp. He had a real nice outing in DC, but his two subsequent starts just haven’t been good enough. He ended April with a 6.67 era over 6 starts, with 38 hits allowed (including 7 homers) in his 29.2 innings of work. Sorry Dean, that doesn’t cut it.  While he was allowing 11 hits over 5 innings of work Saturday in Detroit, Cole Irvin was having a quality start at AAA. It would surprise me if Irvin doesn’t replace Kremer in the rotation this week.  If that happens, that’s an easy reminder to Kremer that things change, and other opportunities arise. Irvin had to be sent down, and might have worked his way back.  April ’23 was a disaster for Kremer, just like the ’21 season was. He found himself in ’22.  Go back to AAA, get some results, and maybe we see you again at some point here in Baltimore.  Like Mike Baumann and many a failed starter, his future might in a ML bullpen.

2) Joey Ortiz was up, and then quickly sent back down.  I don’t want to beat on Adam Frazier all year.  And my issues with Frazier aren’t really about Frazier. The glove is solid. He’s carrying a .220 batting average, but he generally has good ab’s. You can see why he’s hit for average previously. My issue with the signing was questioning why the O’s would allocate $8M of their limited budget to him, when they had internal options who figured to provide similar (and potentially better) production? And yeah, Frazier bats left, but his splits so far this year are just about equal vs. RH and LH pitching.  If at some point Elias believes the O’s are better off with Ortiz or Westburg at 2nd everyday, I hope that move is made even if it would send Frazier and his salary to the bench (or off the roster).

3) Grayson Rodriguez got career win #1 in Detroit over the weekend, going 5 innings (his 4th start of exactly 5 innings), allowing 2 hits, 0 er, 1 bb, and striking out 9.  That’s 3 straight starts of 91 to 93 pitches. There will be growing pains, and rough outings, but that was an encouraging first month.

4) I really like Kyle Bradish; but am pretty disappointed by the last two outings. 2nd year in the bigs, 26 years old; you don’t expect that he’s going to have everything figured out. You know there will be mediocre and poor outings over the course of a year. But ability wise, he’s got the stuff where every time out, he’s got a legitimate chance to win. And for this team to get where they want to go this year, the O’s are going to need Bradish to regularly give them a chance. Coming off a masterful outing vs. the Nationals, he was knocked around by Boston April 25th.  The Red Sox have had his number so far over this last year. Yesterday might have annoyed me more, because he was handed the 4 run lead, and he just imploded in the 5th. In addition to not locking up the game, he had to leave early and caused the pen to be extended. The 6.14 era is ugly, but it’s only over 4 starts and 14.2 innings. A quality outing his next time out, and the numbers will start to even out. Let’s hope May is where he starts building positive consistency.

5) In Power Ranking’s released today by FOX, CBS, and MLB.com; the O’s are 7th, 5th, and 5th.

6) Every team in the AL East is above .500, and every team has a positive run differential.  The Orioles and Blue Jays are in the top two Wild Card positions, with Boston and NY both a 1/2 game behind Houston.

7) Austin Voth figures to be one of the arms to go when Mychal Givens, and Dillon Tate come off the IL, but it was a nice job from him yesterday in relief. His first five outings were horrific, but he’s been better lately. Who is the other arm to go? I’m thinking Keegan Akin.  Givens and Tate should really help this team shorten games.  Should also allow O’s Manager Brandon Hyde to not feel obligated to use Felix Bautista quite as much. Yennier Cano has been a revelation. Baumann has been strong as a reliever. Bryan Baker is having another productive season.  Danny Coulombe was a quality late Spring addition, who has really helped. If it’s not Akin, the other logical candidate would be Cionel Perez who hasn’t replicated last year’s results so far (18 hits, and 8 walks allowed in 10.1 innings of work). You can see where DL Hall will have a real opening to join the O’s pen in the relative near-term.

8) Gunnar Henderson finished April with a .659 OPS. He particularly struggled (2 for 21) vs. LHP.  You want to see him get rolling a bit in May.

9) I wanted one of the Free Agent SS’s that were available this Winter.  I enjoyed watching Jorge Mateo play last year, but thought the FA SS’s were better bets going forward. Basically I thought the O’s were ready to take the next step as a team, should have had money to spend, so felt they should use it on one of the FA’s SS who you figured to get more out of offensively. I obviously believed in Mateo’s glove and the speed. I also thought he had a bit more bat in him then he showed over last year as a whole. I certainly didn’t expect this.  He played like an MVP candidate in April. Credit to him and the O’s for his offensive adjustments.

How much credit do you give the O’s for sticking with Mateo over those FA’s?  Is it none, because they probably just didn’t want to spend any money? Is it some, because they knew what they had with Mateo, and believed he could provide more offensively than he previously showed? Is it some, because even if they only believed in Mateo’s glove and speed; that sticking with him might have been a more prudent call going forward? Of course it also factors that they knew that they had Ortiz waiting in the wings at AAA, coupled with Henderson’s ability to man SS as well.

Just going back to Mateo’s ’23 season so far, he enters May with his fWAR at 1.5.  He’s got an OPS over 1.000.  Yeah, nobody should expect him to maintain this pace; but he looks like a legitimate All-Star right now.

10) While we’re talking about SS and the O’s; l’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Jackson Holliday. Last year’s #1 overall selection has reached Aberdeen. It’s quite possible he spends the 2nd half of ’23 at AA Bowie. By the middle of ’24, Holliday could be in the mix for a ML promotion.

11) Adley Rutschman had a .561 OPS over the last 15 days, and still enters May with a .291 / .409 / .437 slash line.

12) It feels like Ryan Mountcastle has hit into some bad luck so far this year. He’s in the 92nd percentile in Average Exit Velocity.  His Batting Average on Balls In Play is .258 vs. .306 for his career.

13) Cedric Mullins has a BB% of 14.5% so far. For his career, he’s at 8.1%.

14) The O’s have 28 games scheduled in May.  That includes 9 within the Division, plus 3 vs. the NL East leading Braves, 3 vs. the NL Central leading Pirates, and 3 vs. the AL West leading Rangers. A .500 month of May would have the O’s in great shape entering June. One series at a time.

Next 7 Games: 

May 2nd – 4th @ Kansas City
May 5th – 7th @ Atlanta
May 8th Tampa Bay

Kansas City is 15 games under .500!  Ouch.  They’ve been outscored by 64 runs.
You’d love to add to their misery and sweep them; but at the minimum, get the series win.

Atlanta is also 19-9 so far this year, leading the NL East.
The Braves will certainly be a step-up in competition vs. what the O’s have seen recently.

May 8th will kick off a 10 game homestand, and give the O’s their first look at Tampa Bay this year.
Will be interesting to see what the attendance looks like for that Rays series. It’s the start of a work-week, but depending on how this week goes; could be the Top 2 teams in the Division.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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