How do the Orioles look as the Hot Stove heats up?

The “hot stove” season is heating up. Today, we saw the Astros acquire Brian McCann and sign Josh Reddick, who was reportedly an Orioles target. The market is finally starting to role with the winter meetings just a few weeks away, we should start to see more clarity to where this market is going to take us. As things start to heat up, let’s see where the Orioles stand as of today.

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The Orioles currently have 8 players under contract for 2017. Those players are Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Ubaldo Jimenez, Yovanni Gallardo, Wade Miley, JJ Hardy and Darren O’Day. If we take away the deferred money owed to O’Day and Davis, the payroll stands at roughly 91 million dollars for those 8 players. The Orioles currently have 10 players who are arbitration eligible. Of the 10 who are eligible, TJ McFarland is the only one that I personally think is a slam-dunk non-tender candidate (although I would guess the Os keep him for depth). Some will say Flaherty and Worley should be non-tendered but I think they give you solid value for the little money they will make. Of the players who will get arbitration raises, the Orioles have 3 players who will make up a big chunk of the payroll. Those players are Zach Britton, Chris Tillman and Manny Machado. According to the figures put out by MLBTR, those 3 players figure to make about 33 million dollars. MLBTR totals the Orioles arbitration eligible players, if they were to tender all of them, at roughly 50 million dollars. You also have Dylan Bundy, Mychal Givens, Rickard and Mancini as players who will likely make the ML roster. To keep the numbers easy, you now have a total of $145 million dollars with those players on your payroll. That is about 3 million short of the Opening Day payroll from last year. Barring trades, the players making the large chunk of the money will be on the team. You may be able to shave off 3-5 million by not offering arbitration to everyone and maybe the MLBTR projections will be off but generally speaking, I think its fair to say the Orioles are entering this off-season knowing they have somewhere in the 140-145 million dollar range already spent.

The biggest question to start the off-season is how much will the payroll go up, if at all? The Orioles did add payroll as the season went on last year but it’s not likely it went drastically higher. They elected to not offer a Qualifying Offer Matt Wieters for fear that he would accept. They did offer a QO to Trumbo. Now, while it was the correct assumption to believe Trumbo would turn it down, its not like the O’s weren’t prepared to give him the $17.2 million dollars had he accepted it. Does that mean they are comfortable going that much higher in payroll? Would they have been willing for Trumbo but no one else? I guess that is to be determined but I think that is something to keep in the back of your minds.

Today, the “Hot Stove show” featured Dan Duquette. The interesting points to take away from his words on that show today were that the team is looking for corner OF help, a vet catcher and a DH. You notice he left off starting pitcher and lefty reliever. He has been consistent this offseason saying he is ok with the starting pitching and with the way Donnie Hart performed last year and with the solid under the radar pickup of Jed Bradley, perhaps he is comfortable with that part of the bullpen, although I would assume some players get a spring training invite and see what they can do type of deal. Now, we have no idea what type of players Duquette will pick up but with that wish list that he has, it would be hard to imagine adding those players and not putting another 10-20 million onto the payroll. All of this tells me that the Orioles are either going to make some trades to alleviate the payroll issues and/or they are fine with raising the payroll to 160+ million.

How can the Orioles find the money? Well, if you look at the players making the most amount of money, I think its safe to say Davis, Jones and O’Day are staying. I think it’s also safe to say that to trade any of the 3 vet starters (Wiley, Jimenez, Gallardo), the Orioles will have to eat a lot of salary. They could still save 3-6M IMO and that is significant but its not like Baltimore will be able to trade them and save their whole contracts in all likelihood.

They could also opt to trade any of the expensive arbitration eligible players, including Britton (who Duquette says he doesn’t want to trade but he has never ruled it out either) or Machado.

Machado is obviously someone the team doesn’t want to deal. However, with his contract expected to be in the 300+ million dollar range, its fair to ask if the Orioles can afford to pay that and if they can’t and they know they can’t, its not unfair for them to look around and see what teams would offer for Machado. Do I think that will happen? No, I don’t. I think that’s more realistic next off-season although I hope he is extended and we don’t have to discuss that.

To me, Britton is the guy you have to trade if the right deal is there, which I think it will be. We know there are some teams loaded with money and/or prospects that need a closer. There are 2 elite closers on the market in Jensen and Chapman. Mark Melancon is also out there and is also very good. After that, there is a drop off and Britton, who is the best in the game, represents a great option for many teams. With the value that elite relievers have been bringing back in trade lately, this is something I think the O’s will look into even if they don’t ultimately trade him. However, let’s assume the Orioles keep the main guys and trade one of the 3 vet starters and save 5 million bucks. I think that’s a relatively fair assumption to make. That would allow the Orioles to make the moves they want to make IF they are also willing to raise payroll.

With all of that being said, the question becomes, whom should they go after? They first guy on my list is Ender Inciarte. He is a speedy, excellent defensive OFer who has the ability to hit for a high average and get on base 34-35% of the time. IMO, he is a better target than Dexter Fowler. Inciarte is better defensively, has similar speed and is far younger. Fowler is better all around at the plate but the age difference can’t be ignored (5 years by the time Opening Day rolls around). Fowler will obviously cost way more money and a first round pick. Inciarte costs minimal money and while he will cost more than the first rounder is worth, its likely not such a huge difference that its smarter to just give Fowler 15+M a year for 3-5 years. There is a trade to be made here with Atlanta. We have different pieces that a rebuilding franchise would be interested in or they could try to sure up the bullpen and go after Brach. Either way, I think a deal can get done here.

The next guy I think we should sign is Steve Pearce. He figures to get no more than a 2/10 deal and if the arm allows him to play the OF, he is a steal at that number. Even if he is relegated to DH/first base duty, he still gives the O’s good value for little money.

At catcher, Jason Castro makes a lot of sense, although he has a lot of teams reportedly vying for him. You don’t want to go crazy for him but if you can get him for 2/15 or less, I believe that’s a solid option for the Orioles. I don’t usually like giving out those middling deals but to get a solid vet catcher who could help this staff and bridge to Chance Sisco, I think that would be worth it. I could even see 3 years being a deal to give because you can always trade Caleb Joseph down the road and Sisco can become the starter.

I don’t see the Orioles making a big splash and I don’t think they are going to spend 10+ million a year on a player this off-season unless they move out a lot more salary than I currently anticipate. Therefore, the moves are going to need to be done on a smaller scale and be had through trades, under the radar signings and things of that nature.

While that isn’t a “sexy” off-season, I think there is merit to that decision making if you get the right players. The Orioles have a good core in place, but that core needs to be supplemented. Duquette has talked about getting more athletic and faster in the OF. We know the team has power, whether or not Trumbo is brought back. So, it goes back to where can this team make up for the losses from the players who are leaving? You don’t have to replace 47 homers with 47 homers. You can bring in a player that does more things for you. You can bring in a player that helps with run prevention.

To me, this is an interesting time for the team. The Orioles have several legit extension candidates. They also have several players who you can make a case for should be traded, as the returns would be very nice. They just spent the most money they ever have on the payroll and they were rewarded with a trip to the playoffs. How did/does that effect season ticket sales? How much of that will go into the Orioles decision about how much they want to raise payroll?

Orioles’ fans have grown accustomed to being disappointed in the off-season. Sometimes, being disappointed isn’t a bad thing because while you didn’t make the big move, you also didn’t make the stupid move. Let’s remember the teams we see in this sport that are usually contenders. The Cubs (well now at least), Cardinals, Red Sox, Indians (now), Texas, Nationals, Dodgers…Those teams certainly have some high priced FAs but the meat of their team was developed and/or traded for because of what they developed. This is part of the reason that I feel trading Britton is such a key to this franchise.

“Winning the off-season”, isn’t usually a good thing. As fans, we need to remember that and remember that free agency is normally a fool’s way of trying to win. That doesn’t mean you ignore it but it does mean that you should keep that in mind when you get upset that the O’s didn’t sign Reddick for a 4 year $52M deal. Yes, there will be players that are “must haves” and guys you go all out for but I have to say, I don’t see that player available this off-season. By the time Christmas rolls around, we will likely have a better idea of where this team is (although Duquette does like to make moves after the New Year) and there is a good chance that many of us, maybe even including myself, will be upset with where the team at that point – but we also need to keep in mind that in a weak FA class, you don’t overbid for middling players just because they look good compared to bad players. Clearly a rule to remember as the off-season progresses.