Orioles: Multiple Paths From Here To Contention

In many circles it would be surprising if the 2021 Baltimore Orioles won 70 games. Despite that, I think the ’22 Orioles can be a Wild Card contender, and the ’23 Orioles can enter that season thinking about their first World Title in 40 years.

How do the Orioles go from where they are now, to becoming one of baseball’s best teams? Ask 100 people, and you’ll get 100 answers. Frankly the only person whose answer matters at this point is Orioles Executive Vice President and General Manager Mike Elias. Unfortunately I couldn’t get Mike to lay out his thoughts, so you are stuck with mine.

Here’s the truth with my vision, it’s vague.

I don’t have every answer here in December 2020, and I don’t believe ‘answers’ today are overly helpful or needed.

What you are doing now is creating payroll flexibility, adding organizational depth along with team control. Ultimately there is no one path, but everything you are doing now is about giving yourself multiple ways to arrive at the desired destination.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

What Exists Today?

If the 2021 season was beginning today, the Orioles would look something like:

C: Severino
1st: Mancini
2nd: Sanchez
SS: Martin
3rd: Ruiz
LF: Mountcastle
CF: Hays
RF: Santander
DH: Stewart

Bench: Sisco, Valaika, Mullins, Davis

Rotation: Means, Cobb, Kremer, Akin, Lopez

Bullpen: Harvey, Scott, Tate, Armstrong, Fry, Sulser, Lakins, Valdez*

*We’ll see if Rule 5 selections Mac Sceroler and Tyler Wells fit in.

AAA Rotation Depth: Baumann, Lowther, Zimmermann, Wells, Smith
AAA Bullpen: Mattson, Sedlock
AAA Positional Depth: Diaz, Vavra, Bannon, Nevin, Shaw, McKenna

AA Rotation Depth: Rodriguez, Hall
AA Positional Depth: Rutschman

A+, and A- Players I’m Focused On: Kjerstad, Westburg, Servideo, Henderson, Rom, Mayo

So, beyond a listing of names, what do you have there?

In Means, you have a solid rotation piece, with some upside. He’s under team control through ’24.

In Kremer, Akin, Baumann, Lowther (Zimmermann, Wells, Smith) you have a group of arms who’ve had quality MiL success, and you have years of team control. Most of those seven arms are looked at as guys with back of the rotation ceiling. Back-end starters, who can provide league average production, and cost nothing have a ton of value. I like the depth there, and feel it’s reasonable to believe you’ll find two who can help the rotation (beginning in ’21) and two who can add to the bullpen.

In the bullpen currently, you have three arms (Harvey, Scott, Tate) I like longer-term.

Maybe I’m wildly optimistic, given his bout with colon cancer, but I expect Trey Mancini to be productive. He’s a free agent after ’22.

In Mancini, Mountcastle, and Stewart; I think the Orioles have three quality options for 1st, and DH. As shown above, I have all three in my projected Orioles lineup to begin ’21.

By June 1st, my hope (and current expectation) is that Diaz is going to have produced enough at AAA, to have earned his way to a Major League promotion. (And of course more importantly, the Orioles will have gained another year of team control on Diaz by that time.) If Diaz is ready to take over LF at that point, it forces a second decision on what you do with Mancini / Mountcastle / Stewart.

Well, that’s not entirely accurate.
There isn’t a whole lot to decide about Mountcastle in my opinion.
He can hit, he’s going to cost little for years, and you don’t really want him in the field. For me, when Diaz is ready to take over LF, Mountcastle moves to 1st or DH.

So, the decision that Diaz’s coming ascension forces is a choice on Mancini and Stewart. If Mancini is healthy and performing over the initial parts of the ’21 season, the O’s will have options there. They could extend him, and that would be well received in the clubhouse and with fans. They could also trade him. The variable there is what is Stewart doing? Has Stewart taken advantage of a couple of months of regular ab’s? What if Stewart is giving you 80%+ of what you’d expect from Mancini? Stewart is under control through the ’24 season.

I can be good with a Mancini extension.
I can be good with a Mancini trade.

Regardless, I feel good about 1st and DH with Mountcastle, and either Mancini or Stewart.

I feel good about an OF of Diaz, Hays, and Santander from left to right.
There are legitimate questions with each.
There is talent with each.
I’m not going into ’21 believing any of those three are automatic long-term answers, but each of them can be.
I will say there is particular heat on Hays to show he can stay in the lineup, and consistently produce. If he doesn’t take advantage of ’21, there will be pressure to make a change there.

At Catcher the Orioles have two usable options now, and one of the best prospects in the game. In a recent podcast, we spoke with Jim Callis from MLB Pipeline. He suggested a path for Rutschman getting to the Majors in the ’21 season does exist.

2nd base is a complete question.
Sanchez is a quality fielder. He’s also 28 and he can’t hit.
I am interested in Vavra, but his ’19 season was in the Sally League. The projection here of him starting ’21 in AAA might be pushing it.

Longer-term, lots of people see Servideo as a quality and capable SS. Lots of people also question the bat. For me, he projects as a 2nd baseman. In the 2nd half of ’21, I’m hoping he can reach AA, and that he gets extended time at 2nd base. If that happens, and his bat is playing at that level; it becomes reasonable to think he could become the Orioles 2nd baseman at some point in ’22. My sense right now is that there are enough questions with the bat, that he’s going to require some additional MiL time at the higher levels.

SS is also a complete question.
I like Martin’s glove and don’t think the publicly advanced metrics captured his true ability in ’19. Range is good, arm is good. He can man that position. He has outstanding athleticism, and while he was completely overmatched offensively to begin ’19, he did make strides during the year. Had ’20 been a normal year, it would have really benefited him to have gotten regular everyday at-bats at AAA. Unfortunately that didn’t happen.

Seems likely to me that the O’s might go find another veteran stop-gap option for SS (Freddy Galvis?). If so, Martin goes back to AAA to begin ’21. Without additional options added, there is opportunity for Martin at SS this coming year. Either way, he’s just a place-holder at this point.

The SS for me in the near-future is Westburg. I’m pretty bullish on his potential. If he starts at High A, he needs to hit as the advanced college bat he is. If he hits there, and shows he can adequately man SS as a professional, then like Servideo – I’d like to see him moved to AA for the 2nd half of ’21.

I should note that for ’21, I didn’t mention Valaika beyond projecting him for the bench. I think he was usable at both 2nd and SS, and would be better at either position if he was able to focus his time at one position. He certainly showed some pop. I like his versatility, and think he can help a roster. I wouldn’t go into the year wanting him to start, but it’s not an unreasonable ask for ’21 either.

Ruiz at 3rd is another place holder. It’s fine giving him time now. There are things to like, but enough questions to not believe in him as real piece going forward either.

I’m excited by the potential of both Henderson and Mayo. Think each has a reasonable chance of being the Orioles future 3rd baseman. It’s going to be sometime for either, and ’21 for both is just about professional growth. Showing you can play everyday. Adjusting to the professional game. Competing. If they start ’21 at Low A, it will have been a fantastic year if they can reach High A to end the season. Can and should like their apparent upside, but they are young enough that neither should even be penciled in as potential longer-term options at this point.

Kjerstad is going to start ’21 in the lower minors in RF. Maybe he ends up moving to 1st later on. The power is what excites people. For him it’s all about the bat, and you want to see him dominate lower Minor League pitching.

Rodriguez and Hall beginning ’21 at Bowie is pretty exciting. These are two arms everyone universally seems to hold in high regard. Once you reach the AA level, you aren’t far from a possible ML promotion. I wouldn’t expect either to get ML time in ’21, but it’s not totally implausible either. Most likely the Orioles will want both to get a full season of AA work, and gain further refinement. With successful years, they are knocking on the door to begin ’22. What I would expect at that point is for both to begin ’22 at AAA, and join the ML roster once the Orioles have gained additional team control. I’m of the opinion that the Orioles don’t need Rodriguez and Hall to become true #1 ACE starters, but that the Orioles absolutely need both to become front of the rotation starters. What this duo does at AA this year, is going to be huge for the organization as a whole.

Internal Questions Which Require Answers In ’21

Let’s keep a running track of the questions which require answers.

We’ll start with some of the questions we raised above, and we’ll add a few more.

• How good is Means?
• Kremer and Akin get first crack. Out of those two, Baumann, Lowther, Zimmerman, Wells, and Smith – can you find two productive starters, and two usable ‘pen options?
• Harvey, Scott, Tate are what exactly?
• Does Mancini get past the cancer?
• Do you invest in an extension in Mancini, or do you trade him?
• Does Hays stay on the field and produce enough in ’21, to believe in him long-term?
• Does Santander build on ’20? Does Diaz take advantage of any opportunity he gets?
• How good is Mountcastle?
• What does Stewart do with any opportunity he gets?
• There is consensus that the floor for Rutschman is high. It’s hard not to think about Wieters. Wieters was a 4x All-Star, 2x Gold Glove Catcher, and due to the expectations he came to the bigs with; it feels like he underachieved. The reality is he had a very good career, but didn’t match the hype. Is Rutschman going to be more Wieters or Buster Posey?
• Do Vavra, Servideo, and Westburg do enough at their respective levels in ’21, to have you believing they can help the ML roster at some point in ’22?
• Are you continuing to develop the internal depth you’ll need to if you decide to pursue a trade for a position of need?
• Does Kjerstad rake and advance?
• What do we see from Henderson and Mayo in ’21?
• When ’21 ends, are Rodriguez and Hall on-track to join the Orioles in early ’22?
• Davis? Going to be paying the money either way; any reason he needs to be on the roster? The answer of course is no. The Orioles can and should be done with Davis at any time. If they want to wait and see if the ’21 season is contracted in anyway (lowering their financial obligation) fine; but Davis has no business being on the Orioles roster when the ’21 season officially begins.

The Midseason ’22 Team With Internal Options Only?

C: Rutschman
1st: Mancini
2nd: Vavra
SS: Westburg
3rd: Ruiz / Bannon
LF: Diaz
CF: Hays
RF: Santander
DH: Mountcastle

Bench: Severino, Valaika, Mullins, Stewart
Rotation: Means, Kremer, Akin, Rodriguez, Hall
Bullpen: Harvey, Scott, Tate, Armstrong, Zimmermann, Wells, Lakins, Mattson

External Free Agent Targets Before ’22?

The Orioles will have plenty of money available to spend before the ’22 season. That’s a benefit of building the way the Orioles are. There is plenty of payroll flexibility.

If the O’s want to pursue Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, or Corey Seager for SS they can.

If the O’s sign one of those four, they could shift Westburg to 3rd.

If the O’s want to pursue Kris Bryant for 3rd, they can.

In a subsequent article, I’ll suggest prospective contracts for each.
Bottomline, one of those five bats is obtainable for the Orioles.

The 2017 team payroll was $164M.
The 2021 team payroll is currently +/- $50M.

Add one of those five bats, and the entire lineup is elevated.

Other areas of potential spend are the rotation, and the bullpen.

Here in December 2020, I like the sound of a Mid-’22 rotation of Means, Kremer, Akin, Rodriguez, and Hall. (With Lowther and Baumann also available.)

But who knows what changes?

Maybe Kremer, Akin, Lowther, Baumann, etc all flame out.
Maybe Rodriguez and Hall don’t progress, or are hit by the injury bug.

I feel very good about about believing the O’s will have at-least 3 viable starters with that group by mid-’22.

If you are heading into ’22 with more questions vs. answers; it’s time to go pursue someone to help. An early look at the potentially available FA starters, has me thinking a trade would make more sense.

Lastly, it’s certainly possible the Orioles will be looking to add some high leverage reliever to their existing mix.

Going Into ’23; It’s Winning Time

Hays hasn’t stayed healthy and produced enough over ’21 and ’22?
Bryron Buxton will be a FA.

Did you previously trade Mancini, and utilize Mountcastle and Stewart at 1st and DH? Kjerstad should be ready to step in at DH.

If you traded Mancini, what did you get?

Did you strike out on Lindor, Correa, Baez, Seager, and Bryant before the ’22 season? You’ve got additional chances to upgrade SS (Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson), or 3rd (Jose Ramirez, Club Option) in FA. It’s also possible at that point that Henderson, or Mayo is ready to help the roster.

Is Vavra producing at 2nd? Has Servideo replaced him? Is he producing?

Are Rodriguez and Hall ready to lead the staff?
Do you need to add one more arm to put you over the top?

As I said in the opening, my vision for ’23 is admittedly vague.
There are too many questions which have to be addressed first.

Not every internal prospect or younger player is going to develop as you hope. Most won’t.

What I like, and why I believe the ’23 Orioles can be very good, is that they have a group of existing internal options who I think can be productive; and they’ll have the payroll flexibility, and organizational depth to address any roster limitations. I also don’t think a lot has to go vastly right for the O’s to be extremely well positioned for ’23.

Too hypothetical for you?
Want more definitive answers?
It starts with this ’21 season, and the further information we will gain this coming year.