With three American League East teams in the expanded Major League Playoffs, the glow of the Orioles’ successes quickly faded.  And, before moving on, it should be noted that the Orioles did have quite a bit of success this year. They were able to give young players Major League experience. Ryan Mountcastle showed that his bat is Major League ready right now. Anthony Santander was one of the best players in the league until his injury. Austin Hays showed enough promise that he can be a quality Major Leaguer. Cedric Mullins should have a role as well. And, of course, some young pitchers showed enough talent to warrant optimism.

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But, the first two days of the playoffs showed just how wide of a gap there is between the Orioles and the rest of the division.

There was the Yankees pounding the Indians in game one and then outlasting the them in game two by plating 10 runs. Both games were a show of their power and their riches as Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gio Urshela had big home runs, while ace Gerrit Cole completely dominated during his start. There was the Rays, using their carefully put together roster, winning two straight over fellow division mate Toronto Blue Jays. Those Blue Jays have a mix of young, budding superstars on offense who now have post season experience. This wasn’t their year, but that roster is loaded with enough young talent to fuel a legitimate playoff run for years to come.

Those three teams are light years ahead of the Orioles right now and for the foreseeable future. While the Red Sox may have finished in last place, their current Major League roster, their injured list, and their farm system, in total, have infinitely more talent than the Orioles and, quite possibly, the Blue Jays. They are also willing to spend money.  The Red Sox won’t be division door mats for long.

So, yes, the strange 60 game sprint of the 2020 Orioles was both exciting and surprising. That shouldn’t be forgotten or discounted. The Orioles came a long way this season, made all the right trades, played well for most of the season, and, again, got a lot of their players some playing time.

All of this is positive.

It’s just that there is so much more to do.

The gap between them and the rest of the division is still pretty big.

And, quite frankly, 2021 doesn’t look like that it will be the year to significantly close that gap. There are still too many holes, still too many deficiencies. Yes, there is help on the way with prospects Adley Rutschmann, Yuniel Diaz, Grayson Rodriguez, Heston Kjerstad, and DL Hall. But, are any of those prospects ready for next year? Unless something goes really well, the answer is no, at least to begin the season.

There is undoubtedly talent and patience is a must. But, the Orioles have been selling the idea of patience for quite some time. It is time for the franchise to take a step forward. A .500 season is the next step, but, let’s be real. Can they achieve a .500 season with this current team in a 162 game schedule against a division that is full of legitimate contenders? Realistically, the answer is no.

While 2021 may not be a success in the wins department, the organization must continue to make moves that show that they are serious about contending soon. They can no longer accept losing in the hopes of a high draft pick. The farm system now ranks in the upper half. Collecting talent will always be important, but 2021 should be the year where moves are made with the idea of contending in mind.

General Manager Mike Elias can move the organization in the right direction by being aggressive on all fronts. It starts with sorting out the current roster. It ends with making a bold statement.

Sorting Out The Current Roster

As much as the 2020 edition of the Orioles created a lot of positive vibes, Elias needs to take stock of who will actually be part of the future. The answers seem obvious. An outfield of Santander, Hays, Mountcastle, and Mullins has high upside. With an open DH spot, all four could have significant playing time this year. The catching tandem of Chance Sisco and Pedro Severino are productive enough to hold down the fort until Rutschmann is ready, even if that means they are playing for the entire 2021 season.

The infield, meanwhile, is a mess. Fan favorite (ok, personal favorite) Hanser Alberto scuffled down the stretch, posing some doubt about whether or not he is an anomaly to all of the advanced metrics. He could be a non-tender candidate. Jose Iglesias has an option in his contract to be brought back. It was a magical 2020 for the veteran infielder, but his performance stands out for exactly that reason. It was the anomaly for his career, not the norm. The odds of him repeating that performance next season are quite low. For 2021, both veterans should be brought back as they are both cost efficient. But, if Elias can get creative in the trade market, neither should stop him from acquiring better talent. But, let’s assume they are brought back along with utility man, Pat Valaika.

The hope is that Trey Mancini can return and resume his production. He should be given every opportunity as the Orioles first baseman/designated hitter. Other than that group, the rest of the 2020 Orioles’ offense should be thanked for their service and properly dismissed.

The rotation of Alex Cobb, John Means, Keegan Akin, and Dean Kremer is a good start. But, the latter two are young, in need of an innings plan, and will have to learn to navigate a full season. Cobb is always an injury risk. John Means ended the season well, but will have to prove he is that pitcher we saw during his last six starts. But, the rotation, as is, is a solid start. The bullpen of Paul Fry, Tanner Scott, Dillon Tate, and, possibly Jorge Lopez is a nice foundation.

So, that’s 18 players coming back. That leaves eight Major League roster spots available. How Elias fills those will go a long in showing just how serious the Orioles are in contending in the near future.

Say Goodbye

Yes, Chris Davis is owed a big chunk of change. Yes, he is a good man in the community. But, first step into contention is to simply pay him to go home or elsewhere. His lack of production is a waste of a roster spot. Teams on the verge of contention cannot afford to waste a roster spot like this. It is time to move on. Once he retires, bring him back in a front office/ambassador type of role to acknowledge all of the good he has done for the community. But, his days on the active roster should be over.

Be Bold In Free Agency

One of the hallmarks of a team on the verge of contention is making a bold free agent move a year earlier than expected. This sets the tone for a young club. This winter, the Orioles can do just that. The market sets up pretty well for that for a couple of reasons.

First, spending across the league will be down. Every club, including the Orioles, lost quite a bit of money this year. Secondly, many clubs may choose to sit out big time free agency this winter with an eye towards next winter’s class that could include Francisco Lindor, Javier Lopez, Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, and Kyle Seager.

But, the Orioles need to land a free agent or two this winter in order to lay a foundation for future success. The pitching market looks most helpful. The Orioles should be serious contenders for Trevor Bauer, the 30 year old right hander. Yes, Bauer comes with a stigma of being difficult to work with, but his production speaks for itself. And, truthfully, that stigma is more about how he doesn’t follow a traditional workout plan and is outspoken. Put him at the top of the rotation and suddenly the Orioles have a legitimate rotation that is capable of competing with anyone. Yes, he is the best pitcher on the market so they will have competition for him, but he is exactly the type of pitcher who the Orioles need to build around. The returning pitchers are solid. Akin and Kremer showed promise, but neither are a top of the rotation pitcher. There isn’t a top of the rotation pitcher in the system. Good teams, winning organizations, go out and buy one. Bauer is that guy.

After Bauer, there are more middle of the rotation types like Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, Marcus Stroman, James Paxton, and Jose Quintana. Any of them would be an upgrade, but none of the upside of Bauer. No matter what, Elias needs to add a pitcher who can immediately help. The days of bringing in veteran retreads like Tommy Milone have to be over.

The reliever market, as usual, is loaded. While a heavy investment isn’t wise, Elias does need a couple of veteran arms. Someone like Trevor May, Blake Treinen, Trevor Rosenthal, or Alex Colome would fill a much needed role in the late innings. While not a priority, Elias does need to fill out the pitching staff.

As for the offense, the gaping hole is third base. While the Yankees are expected to sign DJ LeMahieu back, he will technically be a free agent. With the priority of signing Bauer in mind, LeMahieu is likely out of the question. That would leave someone like Tommy La Stella or Justin Turner as candidates who wouldn’t require a long term investment at high dollars. Elias could also look at infielders such as Jonathan Schoop, Jurickson Profar, and Jonathan Villar. All three (two of which are former Orioles) would represent an upgrade.

Sure, the club could bring back Rio Ruiz or Renato Nunez, but why? There is no upside there. There is no statement there. Neither are even league average starters. And, truthfully, their production could be found anywhere. Bringing in a productive veteran not only upgrades the club, but it signals to future free agents that the Orioles are serious about contending and will add pieces. Signing Bauer, some bullpen help, and a couple of offensive veterans wouldn’t make the Orioles 2021 World Series contenders, but it would make the club viable, allow younger players to gain experience in a competitive environment, and set the foundation for the 2022 and 2023 seasons when the Orioles top prospects are truly ready.

Make A Bold Trade

Elias has accumulated quite a bit of prospects in his brief time as General Manager. Prospects are currency in that they could either help the organization on the field or help acquire talent. The latter is something that he could capitalize on this winter. The Orioles do not have a franchise player and, if they are serious about contending over the next five years, they are in need of one. Sure, they could wait until the winter of 2021 and try to outbid others for the services of a Francisco Lindor, but why wait? Why not offer the Indians some of this accumulated talent, acquire Lindor, sell him on the franchise and city, and pay him. With the volatility of the free agent market, players are more likely to take a guaranteed offer. We saw that this season with Mookie Betts and the Dodgers. Why can’t the Orioles do the same? If the organization is serious about contending for the long term, why not get the franchise cornerstone now?

Closing Thoughts

Of course, all of this is easier said than done. Elias has a long history to erase when it comes to the Orioles lack of spending. But, now is the time. This winter is important to the franchise and it’s long term success. The dark days of this painful rebuild should be coming to a close. It is now time to be bold, add real talent, and then hope that the top prospects can truly round out the roster. The gap between the Orioles and the rest of the division is definitely wide, but the organization to close that gap with a bold winter. This is the true test of Elias and his rebuild plan. Hopefully, he has the backing of ownership to spend. And, more importantly, hopefully, he has the wherewithal to take the next steps now. If not now, when?

Gary Armida
Gary Armida

Orioles Analyst

First and foremost, a Father. After that, I am a writer and teacher who not only started my own company and published an i-magazine as well as a newsletter, but have been published by USA Today, Operation Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Digest, Gotham Baseball Magazine, and numerous other publications. As an educator, I have 20 years of classroom experience and am utilizing that experience in my current position as department coordinator. Wrote the book The Teacher And The Admin (https://theteacherandtheadmin.com/the-book/) and operate that website which is dedicated to making education better for kids.

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