Orioles – Notable Progress Can Still Be Made In 2020

The 2020 Major League Baseball season is finally upon us and while this year is unlike any other, baseball is back and a small bit of normalcy will return for baseball fans across the country. Personally, I’m still uneasy about all of this and my thoughts about a 2020 season change from day-to-day, but we’re living through unprecedented times and uneasy feelings coupled with excitement about the return of baseball is ok.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

With that being said, what would you have to see on the field this season to say, despite all the craziness, that the 2020 season was a productive campaign for the Baltimore Orioles?

There is no minor league season to point to, like we did last season. The 2019 major league Orioles struggled to produce many positive storylines outside of All-Star John Means, a scorching hot September for Austin Hays, and some optimism around Anthony Santander’s ability to develop into a reliable contributor, but the farm system provided us with daily success stories and notable signs of growth.

We recently watched as the Orioles added six new players to their talent pool via the 2020 amatuer draft, but at the time of this writing none of those draft picks have been added to the 60-man player pool, meaning even workout updates from Bowie about Heston Kjerstad, Jordan Westburg, or the slick-fielding Anthony Servideo will not be available and Orioles fans will have to wait nearly a year to see the newest members of Birdland in action.

That doesn’t mean that Orioles fans won’t have storylines to cheer for, specifically storylines that will have an impact two or three years down the road. As much as I love Hanser Alberto and enjoyed the breakout season from Pedro Severino last year, neither player is going to be a major piece on a winning Orioles team. Rio Ruiz has a place in the major leagues, but is it as an everyday third baseman? Personally, I’d rather see Rylan Bannon play a big chunk of games there.

This roster will try to win as many games as possible, but the talent just isn’t there and the schedule is brutal. But with Opening Day upon us, let’s keep it a bit more upbeat.

Those storylines worth following all begin with the Orioles Opening Day starter John Means. (Update- Means has been scratched from that start due to arm fatigue). His background is well-known among fans but still a fascinating listen every time. His rise from mediocre prospect to MLB All-Star and finalist for American League Rookie of the Year is a testament to not only his skills on the field but character on and off the field.

Much of the discussion surrounding Means since the end of the 2019 season has been about his possible regression. Posting an ERA of 3.60 with a 4.41 FIP and 5.48 xFIP along with a 30.9% groundball rate but only a 9.9% HR/FB rate are both easy signs to point to and say regression is possible in 2020.

His changeup is one of baseball’s best offspeed pitches, he spent the offseason training at P3 Pitching and Performance in St. Louis, worked on crafting his other secondary pitches, and he’s noted his need to work more effectively to get deeper into outings. We don’t know what kind of pitcher John Means will develop into, but his 3.0 fWAR season in 2019 was just the third time since 2007 that an Orioles pitcher was worth at least 3.0 fWAR across a full season. It’s going to be exciting to watch his career unfold and while his future may be that of a four or five starter in a starting rotation, I’m not going to be the one to bet against Means sticking around for a few years.

I’ve discussed Austin Hays and Anthony Santander a few times in previous articles because they are two pieces of an Orioles outfield on notice in 2020. Hays has the athleticism to man centerfield for the immediate future and we saw what type of player a healthy Hays is last September. Don’t let prospect fatigue hide the fact that Hays is an electric player. Yes,there are faults in his game, but he’s a possible Rookie of the Year candidate and mainstay at Camden Yards.

As for Santander, I’m sticking with my belief that he’s a valuable fourth outfielder on a future Orioles roster. A switch-hitter who can pile up home runs and doubles, provide a little bit of speed on the basepaths, and play all three outfield positions (CF is highly questionable but if you need an emergency guy, Santander can do it) will be valuable as the likes of Hays/Ryan Mountcastle/Heston Kjerstad/Yusniel Diaz and others battle to fill out the three starting spots.

Finally, the bullpen is a fun bunch of arms when you sit down and look at them. The Orioles still have an opportunity to salvage a good bit of value out of the Zack Britton trade with Cody Carroll and Dillon Tate. Tate excelled as a reliever and as I discussed in a previous post, his numbers at the major league level were actually very intriguing. At this point, he needs innings. Once the Orioles moved him to the bullpen, Tate rose quickly through Double-A and Triple-A before making his Orioles debut, giving him little time to adjust to his new role.

Carroll missed 2019 with a back injury, but put up impressive numbers in the Arizona Fall League and was having a very good spring training before the shutdown. Through 7.1 IP, Caroll allowed just one run and struck out nine while walking none.

Combine these two arms with Hunter Harvey (can he command the 9th inning and take over that role from Mychal Givens?) and the Orioles have legitimate bullpen pieces to work with. I can’t conclude discussion about the bullpen without also mentioning Tanner Scott. After his 9.1 September innings where Scott struck out 14 and walked just three, he’s back on the “what if” hype train.

Major questions may not be answered in 2020, but progress can still be made. For some, progress may be positioning to ensure the addition of another top prospect like Vanderbilt’s Kumar Rocker or Jack Leiter in next year’s draft, or maybe it’s as simple as getting those prospects in the 60-man player pool some big league experience.

Either way, Orioles baseball is back. You might have to continue to look deep (really deep) to see progress made, but every little bit helps.