With the usual apologies, here’s my latest omage to former Baltimore Sun Columnist John Eisneberg, with some facts and opinions on the Baltimore Orioles.

Fact: The 2022 Orioles won 83 games. The early offseason 2023 projected standings via ZiPS has the Birds winning 78 games.

Opinion: The ZiPS projection looks fair to me. I think the O’s – without any external addition – is a +/- .500 team talent wise. A .500 team talent wise, could win anywhere between 70-90 games, and none of the end results would be shocking, albeit with increasing surprise at each end of the spectrum. What happens health wise? Who exceeds expectations? Who underperforms?

Fact: In August, Orioles GM Mike Elias said, “It’s liftoff from here.” More recently he was quoted as saying, “It’s an upward arc.”

Opinion: Whatever verbiage you want to use, everyone sees the same thing. You’ve got a young core, with players who’ve already arrived and more on the come. You’ve got the most talented system in the game. There is a chance for an extended run of contention. Which is great, and exactly what you want. Multiple and consistent opportunities. Coming off an 83 win season, the window has opened. The fanbase went into this off-season hopeful the O’s would choose to augment what exists with external additions which would help bolster the odds of reaching the playoffs in ’23. Two months from Spring Training, those moves have yet to happen. Okay. The O’s get to operate as they choose, but it’s on Elias to operate under whatever constraints he has from Ownership above, and best position the Birds. We get that part of his job is taking a larger overview approach, and thinking beyond ’23. Nobody is going to ask (or want) him to put all of his eggs in the ’23 basket. But it’s very reasonable to ask Elias to improve the chances of the ’23 product beyond hoping for the needed difference to solely be internal improvement.

Fact: The 2017 Orioles had an Opening Day Salary of $164 Million. With inflation, that’s $199 Million today. The 2022 Orioles had total Payroll Spending of about $44 Million.

Opinion: It wasn’t my expectation the Orioles would go from $44M to $200M in one Winter. Frankly, with all of the returning cost-controlled players I’m not sure that was even possible, but quite obviously they could be spending….more.

If the Orioles don’t want to spend anything of significance currently because of the MASN dispute, or the Angelos family lawsuit, or because they just want to pocket as much money as possible – fine.

They get to operate as they choose.
The fanbase gets to decide if they’ll support the team or not.

My general take with the spending is one of the advantages the O’s gained by building this way was to give themselves payroll flexibility.
The ability to add contracts of significance via Free Agency or Trade, to augment what exists internally.

For me, not spending more isn’t criminal or a sin; but it is a missed opportunity.
You can win without spending, but there is a direct correlation between payroll and regular season success.

If the Orioles think they can win without doing x, and they win… then they win.
And if they don’t win enough, it’s fair to question why.
It would not be 20/20 hindsight to say, “This move (especially via Free Agency) was available.”
Also, if they win without doing more spending wise, they don’t get more credit.

Fact: I’ve said more than once over the last year, “If the Orioles want to operate like Tampa Bay, I really don’t care.” Another fact is that Tampa Bay spent about $98M on their ’22 Payroll.

Opinion: If the O’s aren’t willing to have a ’23 Payroll equal to Tampa Bay; I’d like to see John Angelos justify that.

Fact: According Sports Business.com; in ’21 the combined revenue of MLB teams was $9.56B, with the average revenue by team being $318.53M. In ’22, MLB returned to pre-pandemic levels, with a projected combined revenue of over $11B. In March ’22, Forbes estimated the Orioles value at $1.375B. This did not include MASN. In a January ’21 podcast with me, Forbes Maury Brown valued MASN at approximately $500M.

Opinion: When you factor in Local TV, National Centralized distributed revenue, and money received annually from MLB Advanced Media (formerly Bam Tech); the Orioles are doing pretty well revenue wise. Again the ’21 revenue average per team was $318.53M. Let’s say the Orioles were 1/2 that – so $159.3M. Use that as a starting point, and estimate the Orioles expenses to arrive at an estimated net income. And do that knowing the ’21 revenue per team average went up in ’22, and halving that average might not even be necessary. I don’t know that the O’s owe it to the public to open their books. But if I’m wrong, and there isn’t a significant annual profit the O’s are operating from – the O’s would benefit by letting the public know that.

Fact: MASN”s Roch Kubatko wrote earlier this week about the O’s trying to decide on how to handle 2nd base in ’23.

Opinion: I’d hand 2nd base to Jordan Westburg, and plan on him coming North with the O’s out of Spring Training.

Fact: The Orioles signed Kyle Gibson to replace Jordan Lyles.

Opinion: Gibson wasn’t any cheaper, so this was simply about the Orioles liking Gibson better for ’23. That’s fine, they made an evaluation. When I’m looking at the two of them, and thinking of who I’d rather bet on for ’23, Gibson being 3 years older stands out. Beyond that, they’re very comparable. Guys that are durable, and a bit below average at run-production. I do think you could build a contender with a rotation of guys like them. Guys you could depend on to regularly make their scheduled start, and give you some consistent innings – even if they personally are below average in run production. My thinking being that their dependability / availability would have value over the course of the year vs. digging into your extended starting options for an extended amount of starts. Also think their bullpens would be less taxed, and potentially better versions of themselves with more consistent rest. That’s all hypothetical. Sticking to Gibson vs. Lyles, I don’t see enough of a difference either way to have a strong preference with either; but is interesting to me that they didn’t stick with what was the known commodity to them vs. getting a clone replacement.

Fact: Elias has stated multiple times that Grayson Rodriguez will begin the season in the O’s rotation.

Opinion: That’s something to look forward to. I won’t be expecting Rodriguez to be an Ace from day one, but if he can be a dependable mid-rotation starter in ’23 (who occasionally flashes his upside) that would be great. Biggest question will be how do the O’s manage his innings? He had 75.2 innings in ’22. Can he double that in ’23? Would expect the Orioles to stagger his outings, and give him additional rest when possible.

Fact: Last August, the Mariners reached a long-term deal with Julio Rodriguez.

Opinion: No time like the present for the O’s to be attempting the same with Rutschman, and Henderson. Adley is a bit older than Julio, and a catcher; so that factors some – but you’ve got a possible framework to work off of. The Orioles will never have more leverage than they do right now.

Fact: Carlos Rodon, and Dansby Swanson are still Free Agents. MLBTR has the latest on Rodon’s market here. MLB.com looks at the impact of the Giants deal with Correa on Swanson here.

Opinion: I think these are two obtainable pieces the Orioles should have been / should be in on.

Fact: Justin Verlander signed a 2 year $86.7M contract with the New York Mets.

Opinion: That would’ve been a great deal for the O’s. A high AAV over just 2 years. Immediately makes you significantly better, and not a long-enough deal to really pose detrimental risk.

Fact: Trades are still legal in MLB.

Opinion: If you aren’t going to obtain a front-end starter in Free Agency, the other avenue available to you is to make a trade. Of course the advantage of Free Agency is you are just spending money. In a trade, you’ll be giving up player capital unless someone is simply looking to off-load salary. I still feel if the O’s were to obtain a front-end starter via Trade, you’d be looking at some package of Cowser, Mayo, Kjerstad, Hall, Norby, Rom, Ortiz, Prieto. How much would you give up for Arizona’s Zac Gallen? Productive, young, years of team control – so the cost would be high. Why would Arizona give that up? Because they’re in a division with LA and SD, and likely not contending anytime soon. Argument to them would be take a collection of guys with upside, vs. holding on to the lone commodity which won’t be enough for you to get anywhere. Conversely for the Orioles, why would you spend the player capital it would be necessary to spend to get someone like Gallen, when you could sign Rodon, and keep your players?

Fact: Jorge Mateo turns 28 in June, and is coming off a season where he was a 2.8 fWAR player.

Opinion: Mateo was a lot of fun to watch. I came into ’22 knowing he could make the exceptional play, but wondering if he could be consistent enough with the routine. He was excellent with the glove. That defense coupled with his athleticism makes him a productive player. Above I advocate for adding Swanson, but I know that isn’t going to happen. You could do worse than Mateo as your everyday SS. It would be nice if he could bring his OPS up over .700 in ’23.

Fact: Ramon Urias was the American League Gold Glove winner at 3rd Base in ’22.

Opinion: Mateo’s athleticism jumps off the screen at you. Urias is someone you appreciate more watching him everyday. You like his offensive approach when he’s going well, his willingness to go to right. He’s got more pop than you’d think too. Ideally I still think he’s a utility guy that gets a lot of run, but have to wonder if someone covets him as a regular? Should the O’s? I guess a case can be made. Myself, I’d rather Westburg take over 2nd base to begin ’23 as I said above, and I still think Henderson makes the most sense at 3rd. But if the O’s wanted Henderson at SS, Urias at 3rd, and wanted Mateo as either the Utility option or potentially moved; there is a reasonable argument for that. Either way, in addition to Wesburg, I think Coby Mayo and Joey Ortiz can quickly factor into the O’s infield alignment as well.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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