On Friday, the Baltimore Orioles will begin what is surely the strangest season in franchise history. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, they’ll be playing just 60 games, entirely against the AL and NL East, while doing so in empty stadiums. We wanted to know what fans will expect from this unique season, so we conducted a survey, asking 14 questions ranging from Baltimore’s win total to how they feel about artificial crowd noise. Let’s break down the responses, question-by-question.
1) How many wins do you expect the Orioles will have from the 60-game schedule?
The majority of the fanbase expects between 11 and 20 wins from the season, with 5.3 percent of the fanbase feeling especially pessimistic and expecting 10 or fewer victories. Fangraphs projects the Orioles will have 21.1 wins, while Baseball Prospectus is ever so slightly more optimistic with 21.7 wins. Last season the Orioles won exactly a third of their games, which would lead to a 20-40 record this year, but they’ll have no matchups with other weaker teams like the Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals.
2) What constitutes a successful season? (Pick all that apply)
In a unique season, there’s no fanbase consensus on what will make 2020 a successful season. For under half the fanbase, playing games at all after COVID-19’s impact on 2020 would be a success. The most notable part of this survey is more fans would consider getting the #1 pick a successful season than winning more games than expected. While there’s only a difference of five votes, it does indicate that the fanbase wouldn’t want to miss out on the chance continue strengthening the farm system with another #1 pick, who is currently projected to be Vanderbilt pitcher Kumar Rocker. The only answer that a majority of the fanbase can agree upon is that getting playing time and experience for players who have the chance to help the roster going forward would be a success.
3) Will the Orioles have the worst record in baseball?
In a close vote, 56 percent of the fanbase expects the Orioles will go another year without the #1 pick. The Tigers, last season’s basement dwellers, made a real effort to improve their roster this year, signing CJ Cron, Cameron Maybin and former Oriole Jonathan Schoop. The Marlins, who had the third-worst record last year, also made improvements to the roster with Corey Dickerson, Jesus Aguilar and former Oriole Jonathan Villar. The lack of improvements to the roster combined with the tough schedule could prove the 44 percent correct this year.
4) The Orioles have 10 games against the Yankees. How many wins will they have?
In 2019, the Orioles opened the season with a series victory against the Yankees, taking two of three in the Bronx. They then failed to beat the Yankees after that, ending the year with a 2-17 record, good for 10.5 winning percentage. If that winning percentage carries into this year, that’d give the Orioles one win in ten games, which is what approximately half of the fanbase expects for this season. Four percent of the respondents are especially pessimistic, expecting the O’s to go winless against the defending champions of the AL East.
5) Hanser Alberto finished 2019 with a .948 OPS against left-handed pitching. What will his OPS be against left-handed pitching in 2020?
Last year Hanser Alberto had an impressive breakout season with a .305 batting average and a campaign of clobbering left-handed pitching. This year, it’s fair to wonder if his production against lefties will be sustainable. There’s no clear expectation for what Hanser will do this year, with none of the four choices garnering a third of the vote.
6) If he’s healthy, will Chris Davis start at least 50 games?
We have a fanbase almost perfectly divided here. The struggles for Davis at the plate have become very well known the past two years, with Davis striking out 331 times in 777 at-bats, batting a dreadful .172 and producing an equally poor .564 OPS. If Davis doesn’t start, his opportunities could go to Renato Nunez, who started 24 games at first last year. There’s also the chance of prospect Ryan Mountcastle getting a few starts at the position, but we’ll take a closer look at him later in this survey.
7) Who will have more saves this year?
Last season Mychal Givens struggled, allowing almost two homers per nine innings and seeing both his ERA and FIP increase from his 2018 figures. Givens led the team with 11 saves but also blew a save eight times, good for a save percentage of under 60 percent. Out of the 37 relievers to record at 10 saves, Givens ranked last in save percentage. So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise 60 percent of the people who answered expect Hunter Harvey to record more saves this year. Harvey pitched just 6.1 innings last year, but had an impressive 15.6 K/9 while allowing a single earned run. Harvey is currently on the 10-day IL, which could give Givens the chance to start the season as closer. However, if Givens struggles and Harvey returns to health, he could still finish above Givens in saves.
8) Who will lead the Orioles in HRs?
With Trey Mancini out for the season, there will be a new home run champion in Baltimore this year. Not surprisingly, the leading vote getter is Renato Nunez, who finished second on the team in 2019 with 31 homers. Twenty percent of the survey takers are feeling optimistic, expecting Chris Davis will return to his old self and lead the team.
9) How many games will Ryan Mountcastle play in?
Ryan Mountcastle spent all of 2019 with AAA Norfolk, providing a very solid .871 OPS with 25 homers and 35 doubles in 127 games. He also homered in a scrimmage against the Phillies earlier this week. Despite this, the most popular answer for the question was that Mountcastle will appear in under 15 games this season with just 20 percent of the answers expecting Mountcastle to play in over half of Baltimore’s games this year. The O’s also announced Mountcastle won’t be on the Opening Day roster, which could increase the chances of the 0 to 15 games answer being correct.
10) Will Yusniel Diaz appear in a game this year?
The centerpiece of the package the Los Angeles Dodgers sent to the Orioles to acquire Manny Machado, Yusniel Diaz has spent his one and a half years with the Orioles primarily in AA with the Bowie Baysox. Diaz had an .807 OPS over 76 games last season and MLB.com ranks him as the seventh-best prospect in the organization. There’s several players in front of him for the corner outfield spots, but there’s still the chance for him to get playing time later in the season, which 44 percent of the respondents expect.
11) Do you have any interest in watching LeBlanc, Milone, Wojciechowski start?
No one will be mistaking the Baltimore rotation this season with 1971’s four 20-game winners or any other successful group of pitchers. While there’s reason for optimism with John Means, it’s hard to believe anyone else in their rotation would be good enough to start for the league’s title contenders. As such, it’s not much of a surprise half of the respondents won’t be interested in watching those parts of the rotation.
12) Should the O’s be using these 60 games to give experience to guys like Akin, Kremer, Baumann, Lowther, Zimmermann, and Wells?
The top two pitching prospects for the Orioles, Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall, are extremely unlikely to pitch this season, but that doesn’t mean we won’t be seeing any pitching prospects getting their first taste of the majors this season. Michael Baumann, Dean Kremer and Zac Lowther are ranked eighth through tenth by MLB.com in the Orioles farm system and all of them could get the chance to pitch this season.
13) Artificial crowd noise has been used in the broadcast for other sports without fans in the stadium. Would you prefer the crowd noise or just the natural sounds of an empty stadium?
Artificial crowd noise has already been used in soccer broadcasts for matches in Europe as well as broadcasts of MLS and the NWSL in the United States, so baseball won’t be the first sport to try the idea. Over half of the answers would prefer natural sound, giving us the chance to hear the crack of the bat and the pop of the glove in the catcher’s mitt as clear as possible. It’s worth noting that the 2015 empty stadium game between the White Sox and Orioles included no crowd noise on MASN, but the networks broadcasting baseball have had significantly more advanced warning of empty stadium games than MASN did in 2015.
14) How do you feel about putting a runner on 2B to start extra innings?
In an effort to end games quicker in this shortened season, extra innings will start with a runner on second base. More than half of the people who took the survey are opposed to the idea, but it’s not universal dislike, with almost 40 percent accepting the rule change if it’s just for this season. Orioles fans in particular have good reason to want to see endless extra innings after the incredible outcome of Stevie Wilkerson recording a save against the Angels last season in a 16-inning game.
BSL Analyst
Rose Katz is a recent graduate of the University of Maryland’s journalism school, where she worked for The Diamondback as the online managing editor and a sports blogger. As a student, she spent almost all of her time on campus in The Diamondback’s newsroom or at Xfinity Center, Ludwig Field and Maryland Stadium. Rose gained intern experience with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).