The Orioles Should Not Punt On This Off-Season

Game 6 of the 2019 World Series is tomorrow night, and the Houston Astros are on the verge of their second title in three years. Once that series ends, baseball’s off-season calendar will rapidly come into focus.

One day after the World Series ends, eligible players can file for Free Agency.

It’s also the beginning of a five day quiet period, where teams can negotiate with their own Free Agents but can’t sign anyone externally.

At the end of the quiet period, clubs must decide whether to extend one-year qualifying offers to their Free Agents. Clubs are also faced with a deadline on whether to pick up 2020 options.

The day after the quiet period, Free Agents are allowed to sign with any club.

December 2nd is the Non-Tender deadline.

December 9th through the 12th will be the 2019 Winter Meetings in San Diego.

The ’19 Baltimore Orioles won just 54 games, and finished in last place in the American League East for the 3rd consecutive season. 2019 was Year 1 of Mike Elias’ (Orioles Executive VP & General Manager) rebuilding project. It’s understood that this isn’t a quick flip. This was a complete tear down and the beginning of a process.

Due to that, there is an expectation from all quarters that the O’s will be as involved in this off-season as they are in the Series – which is to say not at all.

Those minimal / non-existent expectations for this off-season might prove accurate; but it would be a mistake.

The Orioles & Elias should not be punting on this off-season.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

For the first time since Pat Gillick was at the helm, I have a lot of confidence in the guy occupying the Orioles GM position. That confidence doesn’t equate to believing that Elias is infallible. It’s the belief that Elias is going to systematically work a plan. He’s not going to bat 1.000. He’s going to make mistakes, but he’s going to make enough sound, quality decisions that the O’s will benefit from his judgement and expertise that we see incremental organizational improvement.

I fully believe the 2021 Orioles will be around .500, the ’22 Orioles will be Wild Card contenders, and the ’23 Orioles will be positioned for a run at their first World Title in four decades.

I don’t think many Oriole fans have expectations of when the O’s will become ‘good’ again.
I suspect that my timetable seems aggressive to most.

I know that I’m not alone in my confidence in Elias. I feel most Oriole fans believe he’s the ideal guy to have at the helm. Those fans who do question his prospects of ultimate success here are primarily fixated on the fact that the Angelos family continues to hold Majority Ownership.

Years from now when we look back at Elias’ tenure, we will have the information necessary to judge his success or failures.

Right now, if you are optimistic about Elias’ prospects or you are pessimistic about what he ultimately achieves; both view points are lacking information.

For those of us who are happy he’s in-charge, many of us are willing to fully give him the benefit of the doubt. Meaning we aren’t exactly holding him to high standards right now. Since we have confidence in his abilities, and since the O’s have been so horrific these last two seasons – the mindset from many fans is, “Wake me up a few years from now. We’re horrible, it’s going to take years to improve. Let Elias operate his plan.” 

Portions of that mindset I agree with.

Elias should not be doing anything this off-season which deviates from his longer-term plan.
At the most basic levels, the plan is clear.  The Orioles are investing (to improve) their Scouting, Player Development, and Analytics. They are adding to their brain power within Baseball Operations. They are going to actually have an International presence. Any move they make is weighed through the prism of, “Can this move potentially help us, when we’re ready to compete?”

Here’s what I don’t agree with the above mindset.

The 2020 season is still going to be played. 162 times the Orioles will take the field.
Wins and losses will be counted. You can improve the 2020 product, without jeopardizing the larger plan – and in-fact you might increase the chances of the rebuild ultimately proving successful, by making the 2020 team better.

Some Things I’d Like To See: 

1) Tender Villar a contract.  As Rob Shields illustrated, it should be an easy decision.  The point of keeping him isn’t just that he makes the ’20 team better…  (the level he makes the O’s better in ’20 is ultimately of little importance)… it’s that he’s an asset you have, that you can easily afford. There is no reason to just let that asset go.  You keep him around, and if you want to trade him later, and get something for his talent… fine.  But you can’t let him go and get nothing for him.  I’d actually be fine with seeing if you could tack on an additional year (’21), but that’s not something you have to do.

2) Target Colin McHugh, and Alex Wood in Free Agency.   Also consider making a run at Will Smith. McHugh and Wood could potentially give you very little, but both have upside, and both are obtainable. The pitching (particularly starting) numbers from the O’s the last two years have been unfathomably bad. If the rotation can be anywhere near average, the roster as a whole can improve.

A reliever like Smith is typically deemed an unneeded luxury on a losing team; but we saw numerous instances in ’19 where the O’s couldn’t hold leads. That can be demoralizing for a group of young players trying to improve. You can put together a bullpen that is largely comprised of young cheap powers arms. Pairing them with a quality vet like Smith could boost everyone.

3) Release Davis. 

4) Anticipate promoting Mountcastle & Diaz by June 1st.  Promotions coming if they’ve progressed as desired. Mountcastle begins ’20 at AAA so the O’s gain another year of team control. You do want to watch his walk / k ratio. Diaz battled numerous issues in ’19, particularly with his legs. Despite that, he finished with respectable numbers at AA. The disappointing aspect was he only had 286 ab’s. The bet here is that he looks fresh and healthy next Spring, and is ready to perform at Norfolk. With performance over April and May, I think he takes over RF for the O’s by June.

5) Explore the trade market for Mancini.

 

Adley Rutschman is 130 ab’s into his professional career.
John Means is coming off an effective (encouraging) season at the ML level.

Rutschman is clearly a piece the O’s are planning to build around long-term.**
Means is someone who may or may not be part of the next quality O’s team.

**What Rutschman becomes at the ML level is of course also TBD, but his combination of age / talent / control means he’s going to get every opportunity to be someone you build around.

My point here is the O’s have a number of players on the roster which are similar to Means. Where there is some promise, but what they’re going to be, and what they represent to the O’s is to be determined. Determined largely by how they perform in a season like 2020 where there will continue to be no expectations, and lots of opportunity for playing time available.

Great, that’s something I’m looking forward to watching. I want to see how those guys perform.
I’m not looking or advocating for the O’s to go get players that block the opportunities of those players.

By June 1st, I want to see a team which looks like:

Villar SS
Alberto 2nd
Santander LF
Nunez 3rd
Mancini 1st
Severino C
Mountcastle DH
Diaz RF
Hays CF

or if you’ve traded Mancini:

Villar SS
Alberto 2nd
Santander LF
Nunez 3rd
Stewart DH
Mountcastle 1st
Severino C
Diaz RF
Hays CF

Bench: Sisco, Wilkerson, Smith Jr, Ruiz, UTI
SP: Wood, Means, Cobb, Bundy, McHugh
Bullpen: Smith, Givens, Harvey, Tate, Scott, Kline, Bleier or Fry, Armstrong (Or UTI)

AAA Rotation: Akin, Kremer, Wells, Zimmerman, Lowther, Baumann
AAA Bullpen: Phillips, Carroll, Ortiz, Hess
AAA SS: Martin

Going after McHugh and Wood wouldn’t be legitimate examples of being aggressive this Winter.
Smith would be.

As a whole, pursuing McHugh / Wood / Smith shouldn’t be looked as implausible.
Tendering Villar shouldn’t be something that comes as a surprise.

The Orioles can’t do anything (realistically) that gives them a chance at contending in 2020.
Realistically, even a .500 season in 2020 is going to be out of reach.

That’s fine, and understandable.

What would not be acceptable is completely punting on this off-season, and not making some bare-minimum acquisitions which would increase their chances of being more respectable (and watchable) in 2020.