Orioles Q&A with National Analysts

During the initial months of the 2012 season, the Baltimore Orioles have exceeded the expectations of many. To help review what has occurred so far, and preview what awaits ahead; Baltimore Sports and Life has reached out to several analysts across the game for a National Perspective on the O’s.

Baltimore Sports and Life thanks each of the below writers for their contributions:

David Pinto, Baseball Musings / Baseball Analytics
http://baseballmusings.com/
http://www.baseballanalytics.org/baseball-analytics-blog/author/dfpinto
https://twitter.com/#!/StatsGuru

Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/columnists/cs-phil-rogers,0,1373147.columnist
http://twitter.com/#!/ChiTribRogers

David Schoenfield, ESPN
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot
https://twitter.com/#!/dschoenfield

Jayson Stark, ESPN
http://search.espn.go.com/jayson-stark/
https://twitter.com/#!/jaysonst

Brandon Warne, FanGraphs
http://www.fangraphs.com/
https://twitter.com/#!/Brandon_Warne

Baltimore Sports and Life: “2x All-Star Brian Roberts is returning to action after playing in just 98 games over the past two seasons. Him being able to play at all is a great story. If he regularly starts at 2nd, he will be replacing Robert Andino. Andino has been struggling mightily offensively (.279 wOBA), but has been pretty solid with the glove (3.3 UZR/150). I don’t think any Orioles fans are anticipating Roberts looking like the Roberts that averaged 50 doubles, with a .814 OPS during ’07-’10. If Roberts is slightly below average defensively, do you think he will put up enough offense, to be an upgrade over Andino overall?”

Pinto: “I don’t think Orioles fans should expect much from Roberts. His injury history is such that I suspect he’ll wind up back on the disabled list before he can really make an impact on the team.  At this point, I’d rather have Andino’s defense helping the pitching staff.”

Rogers: “The Orioles have to find out what Roberts can do but given his age and his concussion issues I don’t think fans can count on much help. He’ll work some counts and get on base but it’s hard to see him being the dangerous hitter he has been. Dan Duquette may have to go out and get a second baseman at the trade deadline.”

Schoenfield: “Considering Roberts’ age (34) and health, it seems unlikely he’ll be an upgrade over Andino, who is probably capable of better production than he’s provided so far.”

Warne: “Obviously nothing is guaranteed with Roberts, and I still think Andino is a really good little player, but the real story just might be getting Andino’s bat out of the lineup for a while. Over the past month, he’s hitting – if you can call it that – .181/.240/.224 with 37 strikeouts and 8 walks. There will be some obvious rust there, as Roberts provided mixed results across three levels in a 14-game rehab stint, but for the money invested in him, and the caliber of player he was prior to the injury, there’s no reason not to give him a whirl. The real story will be how he handles fastballs, as he began struggling them prior to succumbing to his more recent injuries.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Despite being 25th in On-base%, the O’s are 11th in runs scored, primarily based on being 7th in slugging %. I think the O’s can improve their obp with Reynolds and Roberts back in the lineup, and Markakis and Reimold possibly returning back within the Month. As the O’s were 4th in homers in ’11, I do not believe the slugging this year has been a fluke. Do you agree or disagree with this summation?”

Pinto: “I agree, the Orioles are designed to be a slugging team.  I disagree that Reimold will help the team OBP that much.  He’s league average at best.”

Rogers: “It’s easy to forget because of the teams that have played there in recent years but Camden Yards is a hitter’s park, and the Orioles have a collection of hitters who can drive the ball, even if some of them are one-dimensional. Matt Wieters continues to grow into his power and Adam Jones could be a monster after the break. The Orioles are going to score runs.”

Schoenfield: “I would expect only slight improvement for the Orioles’ OBP moving forward. While subs like Endy Chavez, Ryan Flaherty and Xavier Avery have generally been terrible, any improvement over those guys will be slightly off-set by some decline from Chris Davis and maybe Adam Jones. I’m skeptical on Roberts’ ability to contribute and Markakis’ injury (hamate bone) can be something that plagues a hitter all season.”

Stark: “I agree that there’s legit power in this lineup. I’m just not sure it’s safe to count on Reynolds getting on base consistently, or Roberts and Markakis to stay healthy, or Reimold to have turned the corner. But there’s definite upside in that department, and that needs to happen. To get almost all your offense on home runs is a precarious formula if you’re trying to make the postseason.”

Warne: “The notion that this lineup is a bunch of all-or-nothing bangers prior to this season has basically been fulfilled, as only one regular has an OBP above .340. In fact, Adam Jones (.345), and Chris Davis (.340) have only COMBINED for 23 walks, or less than half of league leader Jose Bautista (48). Certainly, the OBP can be raised from the current .309 mark (12th in AL), but I think even with guys returning, there’s a good chance Davis will regress a bit too. .315 might be a reasonable target.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Even if there is some regression, have Jason Hammel, and Wei-Yin Chen shown you enough to believe they finish with at-least league average 3rd or 4th starter production? Hammel is a Free Agent after ’13. Should the O’s already be looking to tack on a year to his contract?”

Pinto: “I think the move out of Denver to sea level helped Hammel tremendously, and I suspect his higher strikeout rate comes from getting more movement on the ball. Chen’s numbers so far indicated a good back of the rotation pitcher.  His K/BB/HR rates are all good, not great.”

Rogers: “Hammel and Chen have been great but holding up could be another thing again, especially for Chen. He’ll enter unchartered territory at some point in August, and the Orioles might want to think about lightening his load a little with 2013 in mind. Hammel’s been good but what’s the rush on a contract extension? I’d make him as happy as I could off the field and then see how he starts 2013. You could try to extend him at some point during the season, and if he’s happy he’ll stay.”

Schoenfield: “I like what I’ve seen from both guys. Chen has impressed with his willingness to trust  his stuff and go after batters. The next step is for him to prove he’s a consistent seven-inning guy and help relieve some of the bullpen workload. Hammel has been terrific, but it’s 12 starts. No need to rush into a big payout just yet.”

Stark: “I like both of those guys a lot. It’ll be interesting to see what happens when the league gets more of a book on Chen, but he has great presence and know-how out there. I think he’s for real. I’ve always been a fan of Hammel’s stuff. But if I were the Orioles, I’d wait on extending him. Too many ups and downs through his career to properly value what he is or what he’s worth quite yet.”

Warne: “It’s hard not to love what one has seen from these guys so far. Hammel has done a terrific job in his second go-around in the AL East, racking up strikeouts (8.5 per nine), while keeping the ball in the yard (seven HR in 72.2 ip). All-told, it’s hard not to be impressed with Hammel, as the underlying stats suggest he’s really not fluky at all (3.22 era, 3.55 FIP, 3.56 xFIP). I would probably add a year to the end of the deal if the price was right, but extensions at peak value aren’t always a great idea. If he’s still cruising along at the end of the year or in say, mid-May of 2013, sure. There’s some pitching on the way in this system, so there’s not a huge rush to create any sort of a logjam, though I do believe it’s almost impossible to have too much pitching.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Brian Matusz has rebounded from a horrific ’11, to be competitive in ’12, and occasionally flash his prior advertised upside. After missing the first two months of 2012, Zach Britton is on the verge of returning to the rotation. If Matusz maintains his current level, and Britton matches his production from last year; what are your general thoughts on the rotation as a whole?”

Pinto: “The only thing Matusz does better this season is keep the ball in the park.  If he doesn’t bring his walk rate down, the flashes of brilliance won’t keep him in the rotation.  I’m not overly impressed with Britton, but he might be a slight improvement.  The team really looks like it needs a true third starter at this point.”

Rogers: “Starting pitching has been a pleasant surprise for the Orioles, unquestionably, but they don’t have anybody with gristle, if you’ll pardon the term. Playoff teams always have guys with track records who teammates can rely on, and the Orioles may have to go out and get themselves one of those guys at some point (this season or before 2013) if they’re going to take it up a notch. If they think they can make a serious push this season they should consider guys like the Cubs’ Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza. They could probably get Gavin Floyd from the White Sox, but Floyd’s breaking pitches have been very inconsistent this season.”

Schoenfield: “As long as Tommy Hunter gets bumped, things will look better. On a more serious note, I had high expectations for Jake Arrieta after watching his dominant performance against the Yankees on May, but he has a 9.34 ERA since then despite a good strikeout rate. The O’s may need to bump Arrieta for a few turns to figure out this slump.”

Warne: “It’s a rotation that should be adequate. What does that mean exactly? Well, it’s not a rotation that’s going to slow the promotion of Dylan Bundy for any reason, and it’s still not a rotation that is going to lead a club to 85-90 wins in this division. But, it’s a group of guys that will hold their own, both individually, and collectively, and should be able to give you league-average production on a nightly basis. In a league that values consistency, it’ll be a nice little luxury. What I don’t see is a true ace – and that’s really just a distinction more than an actual need – but rather a group of 3s. Hammel is pitching like a 2 right now, but Arrieta is also tossing like a 6, so in some ways it will all average out. Nonetheless, the O’s have managed to cobble together a nice rotation without spending a ton of money or dealing any young, premium talent. There’s at least a little commending to be done there.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “For anyone watching the Orioles on a daily basis, it would be a hard sell to claim the defense is ‘good.’ However, I would make the argument that the defense is not quite the issue it has been made out to be. The O’s are in the upper half of the Defensive Efficiency numbers, which is probably directly correlated to the increased amount of defensive shifts. The up-the-middle defense is very solid. Wieters has more errors already, than he had all of last year, but he is still the elite of the elite behind the plate. Hardy’s UZR/150 is lower than the last two years, but he is one of the better defensive SS’s in the league. The last several years, the defensive metrics have not loved Jones’ defense as much as Scouts and other Managers. This year, the metrics seem to be congruent with the praise.If Roberts takes over 2nd, he might be a bit of a drop from Andino. The other-side is that Andino would likely get some time at 3rd, and would improve the defense there. How much of an impediment is the O’s defense?”

Pinto: “The O’s defense is a negative, but not a large one.  The Orioles pitchers rank near the bottom of the majors in K per 9.  If they could get that number up, the slightly below average Orioles defense could be hidden a bit.”

Rogers: “It’s a whole lot better than some other contenders, like the Tigers, to name one team with serious issues. You’re right about Wieters. He’s the total package and Jones is very good in center. The Orioles have some weaknesses but they’re pretty solid up the middle, and that’s the way you want it.”

Schoenfield: “Orioles appear to be about a league-average defense. The pitching staff, however, is just 24th in the majors in strikeout percentage, so the Orioles do allow a few more balls in play than the average team. Would a better defense help?Yes. Is it a big liability? Not really.”

Warne: “I would suggest the O’s are in the 10-12 range as far as defensive clubs, which is a huge-boon considering how possibly awful the club could have been with their pre-season alignment. I figured that’s what would derail a staff full of contact pitchers, but to the O’s credit, those pitchers I was worried about have done a good job of also ratcheting up the Ks a bit, as well as getting help up the middle from J.J. Hardy, and Andino. In this sense, I’d say not as big of an impediment as I thought it might be, but I still think there’s room for individual regression.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Prior to the Philadelphia series, O’s Executive Vice-President Dan Duquette stated that “If we’re in it in July we’ll be in it to win it. We’re out right now taking stock of our minor league system to see what we have to offer teams.”

If Roberts, Markakis, Britton, Reimold, and Lindstrom are all back a month from now; the roster could look like:

Roberts 2nd
Reimold LF
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Wieters C
Hardy SS
Davis DH
Reynolds 1st
Betemit 3rd

Bench: Paulino, Andino, Flaherty, Johnson (with Tolleson, Pearce and Chavez as other options)
Rotation: Hammel, Chen, Matusz, Britton, Hunter
Bullpen: Johnson, Strop, Lindstrom, O’Day, Ayala, Patton or Eveland, Arrieta

Obviously further health issues could arise, impacting how the roster looks. However, if the above is the O’s roster in early July; and the O’s are buyers; where do you think they should look to upgrade if they want to contend? Who would you suggest the Orioles target as a potential addition?”

Pinto: “I would try to replace Betemit and find a third starter.  Third basemen are tough to come by, so they may want to target first base and move Reynolds back to third.  Maybe they could get Chone Figgins to play third, and leaving Seattle revives his career.”

Rogers: “I think they need starting pitchers with experience/presence. I’d take a hard look at Dempster (he’d be great with the younger pitchers) and scout Garza closely. He could be a difference maker in a division race if he gets on a roll.”

Schoenfield: “Third base, rotation. Maybe Andino slides over to third if Roberts stays healthy. But considering the uncertainty with Britton and Matusz, upgrading on Tommy Hunter is a must.”

Warne: “Ryan Dempster of the Chicago Cubs stands out to me as someone who could bolster any club right now. Another possible addition could be Justin Morneau of the Twins, but I think the Twins would be hesitant to deal him, regardless of contract status. Outside of a starter, or one more masher in the lineup, the only other place might be one more pen arm. Might I suggest a reunion with Koji Uehara?”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “If the O’s determine they are not in it, should J. Johnson be actively shopped? If so, can the O’s get a package back similar to what San Diego received from Texas for Mike Adams? In that scenario, who else would you suggest the O’s consider moving?”

Pinto: “Jim Johnson’s hit numbers look like a fluke to me.  With that low a K rate, I would not give up much for him.”

Rogers: “You can listen to offers but Johnson’s a valuable guy. I wouldn’t deal him unless his time had simply run out. If Strop or Lindstrom get rolling, they could be in demand as every team is looking for power arms that can help in the bullpen.”

Schoenfield: “Yes, I would. Easiest thing to replace is a closer and Johnson really is a fairly fungible one, despite that nice ERA this season.  I suppose a team in need of a first baseman  or DH (Toronto) could be interested in Mark Reynolds.”

Warne: “I would be stunned if Johnson, who for as good as he’s been is still not missing bats, brought back too much in a deal. In fact, with his stuff, I’m a bit surprised he doesn’t fan more hitters. Nonetheless, he’s not a Free Agent until after the 2014 season, so I wouldn’t be in a huge rush to move him. At this point, I’d need another month to know who’d I be looking to add or move, if I’m the O’s, however.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “The Orioles recently extended Adam Jones for 6yrs and $85.5M. Should an extension of Wieters (a Free Agent after ’15), be the next priority of the O’s Front Office? If the O’s were to pursue an extension in the immediate, what contractual terms would you suggest as realistic for both sides?”

Pinto: “I’d give Wieters four years.  Catchers shouldn’t be extended past their primes much.”

Rogers: “Again, what’s the hurry? I think the Orioles should sit back and let Wieters at least get closer to free agency before trying to lock him up. Sure, the price could go up, but baseball’s an awfully unpredictable business. I’d make a major push to extend him after 2013 but not before then.”

Schoenfield: “Yadier Molina signed for $5 years, $75 million. Depending on how many years of free agency you’re buying, you’d be looking at something close to that.”

Stark: “It’s probably already too late to extend Wieters. He’s a Scott Boras client. And Boras almost never is amenable to long deals for players at this stage, unless the team massively overpays. Ideally, this would be the time to extend a player like this, who is emerging as one of the best catchers in the league. But reality says, that’s very unlikely to happen.”

Warne: “Well, good catchers can be hard to find, and Wieters is quite good. I think you have to ink him long-term now rather than when/if he explodes offensively, which I still think is possible. So, whats a reasonable template for a deal? Miguel Montero is three years older, but was slated for Free Agency after 2012 and got 6/$65.9 million from the Diamondbacks. Assuming one wants Wieters for six years, he should come much more cheaply due to only buying out three years of free agency. I wouldn’t be surprised if something like 6/$50M got it done.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In the American League East, where do you rank the duo of Showalter / Duquette compared to Maddon / Friedman, Valentine / Cherington, Girardi / Cashman, and Farrell / Anthopoulos?”

Pinto: “They’re tied with V/C near the bottom.  There’s really not a bad pairing in the division, but those two groups have the shortest history together.”

Rogers: “Loaded question. I’m skipping it. I do see a lot less chaos in Baltimore these days (and more in Baltimore), so that’s a good sign.”

Schoenfield: “Probably too early to call, but I’d go Rays, Jays, Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox (sorry, Bobby V).”

Warne: “Too soon to tell. Friedman / Maddon is first, and after that, it’s really hard to say without knowing more about the Duquette / Showalter relationship. I will say this: Even if the O’s are fifth in that list, it’s a list that’s filled with excellent quality.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “As of June 12th, the O’s are 34-26 overall (17-15 against the AL East), and would be the 2nd Wild Card in the American League. If history is an accurate barometer, it should take about 89 wins to claim that 2nd Wild Card. Do you think Baltimore is capable of 55+ more wins?”

Pinto: “No.  I don’t think they have the pitching, and the other AL teams have more resources or more depth.”

Rogers: “Without acquiring veteran pitching, the Orioles are going to fade. It seems sort of clear from here. The Yankees and Rays have such a history of playing well at the end that it’s going to be really tough for the other teams in the East. It would be a great story if the O’s could be playing significant games at the end of September but there’s a lot of water to cross to get there from here.”

Schoenfield: “I think the issues with the rotation catches up to the team eventually. Maybe a .500 team in the end.”

Stark: “Capable? Yes? Would I run to Vegas and bet on it? I’m not there yet. I’m concerned about the consistency of the starting pitching, concerned about the wear and tear on what’s been a great bullpen so far, concerned that they don’t catch the ball consistently enough and concerned they’re too dependent on the home run to score. But there’s an excellent vibe to this team right now. I’m a huge believer in the manager, and his ability to put the right pieces in the right places, and to get his team prepared every day. And I’d love to see this team make a run. Any team that’s been this good for this long is clearly not a fluke. But would I make this bet in a tough division, over the long haul? Sorry. Not yet.”

Warne: “No. I know this is for a Baltimore site and all that, but I just don’t think they’ll keep up at the present .566 winning percentage, which they’d almost have to do (.540) the rest of the way to get to 89 wins. In a lot of ways, I’m sort of reminded of last year’s Indians club, which wasn’t supposed to contend either. I’ll gladly eat my words if it happens – I love good baseball and good story-lines as much as anyone – but I just don’t think the O’s quite have the horses to keep it up.”