Orioles: Quick Hits August 12th

Yesterday the Orioles missed an opportunity to sweep the Rays, and fell to 70-49.

As of today, the O’s and Yankees are tied for the lead in the American League East. Either team – Baltimore or New York – has a 4.5 game lead on the 2nd Wild Card Minnesota, and a 5 game lead on the 3rd Wild Card Kansas City.

The O’s have a positive run differential of 93, which is currently the 4th highest in the game (trailing the Yankees, Milwaukee, and the Dodgers).

Over the last 10 games, the O’s are 5-5.
Since July 1st, the O’s are 17-18 overall.

Here we give some quick thoughts on a number of topics.

Are The Orioles Still Good Enough To Win It All?

It is a copout to say the answer is maybe?

The various injuries to Kyle Bradish, John Means, Tyler Wells, Felix Bautista, Danny Coulombe, Jorge Mateo, Grayson Rodriguez, and Jordan Wesburg all factor.

Bradish finished 4th in the Cy Young balloting last year.
Bautista was the best closer in baseball.
Means was an All-Star in ’19, and the O’s Opening Day starter in ’21, and ’22.
Wells had excellent first half’s in both ’22, and ’23, and was expected to be a useful swing starter plus bullpen option in ’24.

Not having them available, incrementally decreased the O’s chances of winning it all this Fall.

And yet, none of those four contributed much of anything to the Orioles here in ’24.
The O’s were a season high 24 games over .500 on July 7th when they won in Oakland.

Since that point, it’s been a real grind with a lot of bad baseball over the last 35 games.
35 games is a not a blip.
It’s not a bad series, or a bad week.
With 119 games played so far this year, 35 games represents 29% of the season.

So for the last 29% of this ’24 season, the Birds have been pretty average at-best.
Orioles GM Mike Elias said over the weekend that there is hope that Rodriguez and Westburg will be back in late September.
That’s good, because they are both needed.
I can picture Corbin Burnes, Rodriguez, and Zach Eflin leading a playoff staff that’s capable of winning multiple series.
Hard for me to picture Burnes, Eflin, Dean Kremer being good enough.

Westburg can help both offensively and defensively. Also gives you positional versatility, and a better ability to match-up.
It’s not a coincidence that the defense has regressed with Westburg and Mateo not available.

A lot happens over the course of 162 games.
It’s very rare for any team to get through 162 games without periods of bad play, and minimal adversity.
Other contenders / would-be contenders (LA, Atlanta, Philadelphia, New York) around the game this year have dealt with / are dealing with their set of issues.
Nobody cares about what you have had to overcome as a team.
When someone wins the World Championship in October, there won’t be an asterisk engraved on the trophy saying, “If this other team had been healthy…”

The whole goal of a long and arduous season is to get the playoffs, and give yourself a shot.
Once there, it becomes a bit fluky because you are dealing with short samples.
But if you get there, and you are relatively healthy, and you are playing well in every facet of the game; you’ll feel you have as good a shot as anyone.
Nothing has looked great over the last 6 weeks, but assuming Rodriguez and Westburg can return to action; nothing has occurred which has eliminated the O’s chances at winning a championship.

A Santander Extension?

Orioles RF Anthony Santander has a .842 OPS, and is on pace for 48 homers.
He’s also a a Free Agent after this year.

Which option do you like best?

Option A) The O’s extend Santander.
Option B) The O’s let Santander leave in Free Agency, and pencil in Heston Kjerstad, or Coby Mayo for RF in ’25.

I’ve said many times that I expect Kjerstad and Mayo to eventually get a lot of ab’s at 1st and DH, but Mountcastle and O’Hearn are still here until they’re not obviously.

If you figure one of them (probably Mountcastle) is moved, then you have Kjerstad or Mayo in RF, and Kjerstad or Mayo at 1st.

The other thing which factors overall, is the amount of ab’s and games the O’s want to give Adley at DH.

Speaking just on Tony, again he’s got an .842 OPS right now, .778 for his career.
He’s a good player.
He’s hitting both LHP and RHP equally.  (He has a .860 OPS vs. LHP, and a .836 OPS vs. RHP. )
He’s posting up everyday.
He’s decent enough in RF.

For this ’24 team, he’s very important, and if you move on from him in the off-season; you might get production near his career averages in ’25, but you can’t reasonably expect to match his ’24 production.

Still Giving a C+ On The Deadline Acquisitions?

I wrote two articles (here and here) on the O’s Deadline moves, ultimately giving the Orioles a C+ on their moves.

After Bradish’s injury, my thinking from that point was the O’s needed a front-end starter, and one high leverage reliever.

You could argue that Eflin was the best starter anyone obtained, and he’s been excellent so far with the O’s.
Still, his career says he’s more of a 3/4 starter vs. someone you can expect to lean on.

Trevor Rogers is a 5th starter, and he might be fine in that capacity with those expectations.
I thought the O’s needed more. I did like that before Rodriguez’s injury, that the Rogers addition moved Albert Suarez to the pen.

Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto are two power arms the pen needed.
Dominguez has looked strong. Soto has looked a mess.
Soto has a track record over the last 3 years of being useful.
He’s been so bad so far in an Oriole uniform, that many O’s fans wanted to immediately cut-bait and release him.
I’m giving him additional run given that you traded some assets for him, and out of basic need, but he doesn’t have unlimited rope.
Honestly the O’s need him to be good; but he clearly can’t be a liability and continue to get extended opportunities.

I was pretty dismissive to Austin Slater.  His ’21-’23 numbers were pretty good production for a reserve.
He’s previously hit lefties pretty well, and he has use as a 4th OF.
His defensive numbers are down this year, but it’s safe to believe he’s a better defensive OF than Kjerstad.

Eloy Jimenez has started out his O’s career going 12 for his first 24.
He has the look of someone who got out from playing on one of the worst teams of all-time, and suddenly finds himself on a contender.
Not sure there are a ton of ab’s in his future, but maybe he’ll have a 2014 Delmon Young moment this October.

It was not a horrible deadline for the O’s.
Eflin is helping now, his option will be picked up, and he’ll contribute next year as well.
Rogers is probably better than Irvin and Povich; and again we liked that adding him did allow Suarez to be targeted for the pen.
He will be a projected ’25 starter when this year ends as well.
As we said above, we liked adding the power arms of Dominguez and Gregory.
One of them is working out so far.

I think somewhere between C and C+ feels right.
You can point to the guys who were traded and say, “These were the guys actually available,” but I think that only points to half the story.
The O’s had the player capital available to identify other targets who were not moved, and push for those via trade.
Maybe they did, and were rebuffed.
But the O’s don’t get credit for trying.
They get graded on the moves they actually made.
Dominguez and Gregory added power arms, but not certainty.
Getting them both from the Phillies is somewhat telling as other contenders aren’t apt to give up bullpen pieces they’re counting on this time of year.
Rogers might be an improvement on the existing 5th starter options, but 5th starter ceiling isn’t going to excite anyone.

All-in-all, Elias didn’t give up a ton to get what he got back, and he got players with some returning control.
That’s ultimately a good thing.
But I guess I’m not pleased that my second favorite addition the O’s made was Patrick Reilly, who isn’t sniffing Baltimore here in ’24.

Is Brandon Hyde The Guy?

I don’t know what to think about Hyde, I’m not in the clubhouse.
I also question how much impact a Manager directly has these days.
It seems logical to believe in 2024 that many would be decisions are collectively discussed prior to games with the Front Office.

I have no idea how good Hyde is in the clubhouse.
We see him with the media.
How good is he dealing with individuals?  The Players, the Front Office, his Coaching staff?

Motivating professionals?
I don’t think that really exists, especially in baseball over 162 games.

Holding players accountable?
That is something I believe is on a Manager.
Does he do that behind the scenes? No idea.

Mayo Is 0 for 15 To Start His Major League Career

0 for 15 start, 2 bb’s, 10 k’s.

Obviously a brutal start, but it’s 15 ab’s and 6 games.

It’s the same point I made with Jackson Holliday’s initial promotion and the 10 games, and 35 or so ab’s then.

The sample size is so small it tells you nothing.
All you can say is that the player is struggling right in that moment.

Maybe it’s the pressure.
Maybe it’s the improved competition.
Maybe it’s a fluke slump.
Maybe it’s everything.

But there shouldn’t be any worries about him hitting.
It’s going to come.
He just needs to settle in.
Find some green, get a couple to fall in, and he’ll be fine.

If I was going to counter my point at all, I’d say this…

They did apparently tweak Holliday mechanically back at AAA.
If they think Mayo needs further mechanical tweaks, okay.
The only thing I’ve seen jump out to me over these initial 15 ab’s is that he’s not covering the plate, and he’s pulling off the ball.
He’s supposed to have pole to pole power.  Take what you are given, and to go to right.

Defensively, I haven’t seen enough to have any real definitive thoughts, but my impression is that he’s not a ML 3rd baseman.
He can hide there right now out of necessity, especially when you have a defensive option available off the bench for close and late; but I think you have to expect his future is 1st / DH, maybe RF with the plus arm.

Welcome Back Jackson

Holliday was recalled July 31st, and he has launched his first 5 Major League homers since that point.
The power is impressive, as the ball jumps off of his bat.
It’s really fun to think about what his ’25 season will look like.
With this surge, it’s also fun to think about his impact here in the rest of ’24. He’s a bit of a Wild Card for the lineup as a whole.
If Westburg does return at the end of September, he’ll take over 3rd.
2nd base is going to be Jackson’s position.
For all of the consternation of Jackson’s ab’s during his initial 10 game span with the Birds, my focus with him right now is the glove.
Is he going to be below average, average, or above average everyday at 2nd? Where he falls on that spectrum is huge for the O’s defense as a whole.