Orioles: Quick Hits August 22nd

Frustration is mounting in Baltimore amongst Oriole fans, as this ’24 season races towards conclusion.

Given that there are probably 25+ fanbases across Major League Baseball which would gladly trade places with O’s fans, I recognize that might sound surprising for fans on the outside looking in.

Anybody on the outside looking in would see and Oriole team with a ridiculous amount of young talent.
They’d also see an Oriole team which is still 20 games over .500, and just a 1/2 game out of 1st place in the AL East as play begins tonight.

We don’t have to be hyperbolic and use an example like the White Sox.
We can use an example like the Mets.
The Mets just took 2 of 3 from the O’s in New York.
Do you think there is a Mets fan alive which wouldn’t want to trade places with an O’s fan right now?

The Mets have a decent 1 in 4 chance of making the playoffs this year.
They have some talent, they spend money.
But the O’s are set-up better now, and tomorrow.
If some hypothetical Mets fan could trade their organization, for the O’s organization; that trade is happening 100 out of 100 times.

There is no crying in baseball.
Nobody cares about the adversity you are facing.
They certainly don’t care, or have empathy for your issues; when you still have more answers than just about everyone else.

There isn’t a team in baseball right now with a .600 winning percentage.
One interpretation of that would be that there are no great teams.
Another interpretation would be that there are a lot of ‘good’ teams, and over the course of 162 games, things even out.
We’ve seen a lot of injuries across the game this year. Those injuries further exacerbate parity.

The Orioles have been pretty mediocre to down-right below average since the beginning of July.
That’s part of the story of the ’24 O’s.
Another part is that they played well enough in April, May, and June that despite this two month stretch of abhorrent play; they are still very well positioned with 34 games left in the regular season.

They’ve got a 98% chance of making the playoffs as of today.
They’ve got a 2.5 game lead over Minnesota and KC as the lead Wild Card as of today.

That doesn’t mean everything is all good, or that we should be ignoring all of the smoke billowing from under the O’s hood.
It’s been a bad stretch of play marked by mediocre starting pitching, bullpen flame outs, inconsistent offense, and mental miscues.

But I don’t think all is lost.
There might be smoke from under the hood, but the engine doesn’t have to be replaced just yet.

If they can tread water until mid-September, and get back Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, and Jordan Westburg; then I believe they’ve got as good a chance as anyone to do damage in the post-season.

First Thing To Accomplish: Get To The Post-Season

To have a chance of doing any damage in the post-season, you first have to officially get there.
The O’s are well positioned as of today to get to the playoffs, but that still has to be achieved.
The O’s have a 2.5 game lead on Minnesota and KC (who would be the 2nd and 3rd Wild Cards as of today); but my focus is on winning the American League East.
The O’s are the defending division champs, and I’d like to see the O’s add another East title.
The next 7 games are the Astros and Dodgers, but that’s followed by 6 games with Colorado and the White Sox.
The last two series of the year are 3 games in NY vs. the Yankees, and 3 games at Minnesota.
Pretty easy to imagine those two series having real impact on how the O’s end up in the Division and/or Wild Card race; but we will see where the O’s are in a month.
In this next week vs. the respective AL & NL Western Division Leaders, the goal is competing each night.
You could live with a 3-4 week, but a couple of series wins would go a long way to restoring confidence to both the O’s clubhouse, and with their fanbase.

Overall the O’s and their fans (myself included) would be well served by stop thinking about October right now.
Get back to winning series.
Show up each night and grind.

There Is No Magic Bullet Or Reason To Relitigate Every Decision Right Now

Winter Is Coming.
That isn’t just a mantra for Starks, but a reminder to baseball fans in-general.
The off-season is long.
And in those long, cold Winter nights; it’s the perfect time to evaluate in-season decision making.
I’ve made no bones about it, I’m a huge fan of Orioles GM Mike Elias.
As I’ve said previously, I don’t think Elias is a magician. Don’t think anything he’s accomplished is magical.
Just respect him for implementing and operating a plan systematically.
Outside of the recent Ownership change, I think he’s the best thing to happen to the O’s in my Oriole fandom lifetime.
That doesn’t mean he’s infallible.
At the Trade Deadline, I think he needed to add a front-end starter, and a high leverage reliever.
Before going to the IL, Eflin was pitching like a front-end starter, but his career resume points to more of a mid-rotation guy.
Eflin might have been the best starter moved, but that doesn’t mean that other starters who were not moved, were not obtainable.

Moving on.

I was going to tell you fellow Oriole fan, don’t spend the rest of this season rehashing the deadline.
And then I found myself beginning to do just that and not taking my own advice.
Learn from my misstep fellow Oriole fan.
Move on, as it will just drive you crazy right now.
Want to discuss it again in the off-season? There will be plenty of time for that.

There are no more trades to be made right now.
And the guys that you lost to injury for the year (Kyle Bradish, John Means, Tyler Wells, Felix Bautista); they aren’t walking through the door anytime soon either.

Whatever the O’s achieve from this point forward, it’s about the guys that are here – with the hope of Rodriguez, Eflin, Westburg (and Danny Coulombe, and Jacob Webb) joining them.

The Guys That Are Here – What Is Needed?

Corbin Burnes gets the start tonight.
He’s coming off his worst outing of the year, and probably of his career.
The rest of the rotation is currently Dean Kremer, Albert Suarez, Cade Povich, and Cole Irvin.
Burnes has to come through each time out down the stretch.
He has to be the tone setter.

Adley Rutschman has a .747 OPS for the year.
He has a .659 OPS vs. RHP (309 ab’s), and has struggled pretty bad over his last 128 ab’s since the beginning of July.
He doesn’t have to play like an MVP, but he does have to be a consistent presence in the O’s lineup.
He’s had 132 ab’s this year at DH (.954 OPS), and 315 ab’s at Catcher (.649 OPS).
He’s tired.
The back hurts.
He’s got to show up the rest of the way and produce.

I went into the season believing Gunnar Henderson’s best position was 3rd.
That he’d be excellent at 3rd, and above average at SS.
For the first few months of the year, he was playing a truly excellent SS.
The metrics are still very good overall (DRS +4, UZR/150 +7.1). His Outs Above Average (OAA) is neutral at 0.
He has all the tools.
High athleticism leading to plus range, with a very strong arm.
He’s definitely showed he can be an elite defensive SS, and he’s not moving off the position anytime soon.
What I would say though, is that he has to make the routine down the stretch.
He’s got 19 errors on the year, 9 fielding, 10 throwing. It feels like some of those boots are mental, the mental fatigue which comes from playing everyday.
He’s got to lock in and not give teams extra outs to play with.

Cedric Mullins needs to finish strong.
He had a .849 OPS in June, an .800 OPS in July, and has a .708 OPS so far in August.
For the year, he has an abysmal .431 OPS (78 ab’s) vs. LHP.
You really can’t play him vs. lefties at this point, and that impacts the defense.

It’s time to get hot Ryan Mountcastle.
After an .812 OPS in April, Mountcaste has had a .754 OPS in May, .740 OPS in June, .697 OPS in July, and a .548 OPS in August.
He destroyed LHP last year.  This year, he’s just been solid.

Need a little more consistency from Colton Cowser.
.911 OPS in July, .712 OPS in August.
His scorching July included a .390 on-base % for the month.
The offense looked better with him at the top. Harder to have him there, when he’s got a .310 on-base % here in August.

Anthony Santander was a monster in June and July, posting an OPS over .900 in both months, and putting up 22 homers in that span.
He’s scuffled here in August .178 batting average / .247 on-base % / .466 slugging.
Asking him to match his June and July the rest of the way is probably not realistic.
His OPS for his career is .777.  His OPS for the year is .827.
He can’t have any drastic fall off, and the O’s need him in that range.

Jackson Holliday has a .775 OPS here in August over 66 ab’s.
You’d love to see him replicate that in September.
What you really need from Holliday is for him to continue to become more comfortable at 2nd.
He’s learning on the job both offensively and with the glove.
I’m not sure I see a skill-set that says he’ll ever be an elite defensive 2nd baseman.
But I think he can become average to above average with time.
At one point this year, you had an Oriole infield with Henderson, Westburg, and Jorge Mateo all playing at a high level defensively.
You don’t have that right now.
Asking Holliday to be above average defensively right now probably isn’t fair to him.
Asking him to be a league average defensive 2nd baseman right now feels within reach.
The O’s do need that.

Kremer, Suarez, Povich, and Irvin – it’s the same story with each of them. You need them to not take you out of games immediately.
Forget quality starts, it’s about how often do they give you a chance to win?
Avoid getting knocked out early.
Hang in for the next few weeks until Rodriguez, and Eflin return.
When Rodriguez, and Eflin do return, hopefully Suarez can give the pen a lift.

The bullpen?
You can’t implode.
When you have a chance to close games out, you’ve got to win those games.
If Suarez eventually is in the pen, and you get Coulombe and Webb back; you can envision a group that works.
Not an excellent, shut-down group, but a group that could be average and good enough overall.
Right now it’s a hold your breath situation for the team and the fanbase, and everyone is collectively drowning.
The next few weeks are about seeing who steps forward and shows to be at-least semi-reliable.
Or maybe better put, who shows they aren’t about to self-immolate every time they get handed the ball.