Orioles Quick Hits: Jones, The Offense, Wieters, Roster July 1st

Here are some short takes on the O’s, during an interesting time in Birdland:

Topic 1) The Adam Jones extension

The extension caught me by surprise. In the middle of last week, I was still anticipating that a decision on Jones (whether to trade, or extend) would not come until the off-season. After Duquette was hired, I spent a large portion of the Winter stating I thought a decision on Jones was needed prior to the season beginning. When the year began, and nothing had occurred; I deemed that a mistake.

What Jones did was control what he could control. He went out and dominated the first two months of the season, and helped get the O’s off to a positive start to this year. In the Press Conference yesterday, Duquette referenced the improvement (refinement) that he believes Jones has shown. In Duquette’s words, “Jones forced the issue, with his play. You build with players you can rely on.”

Would a deal in the off-season have been slightly cheaper? Probably, but I think things worked out pretty much ideally for the O’s. The contract was reasonable to both sides, and the O’s allowed Jones’ play to dictate their decision. I’m pretty ecstatic that the O’s made a decision either way, and acted on it now.

With Jones locked-up, you get to avoid that growing distraction. You don’t have every Message Board, Blog, Local Reporter, and National Reporter asking, “What is going to happen with Jones?” That uncertainty is gone. Fans get to get back to just enjoying Jones’ season on the field. The organization has been working to build a core of players to build around for the long-term. You now know that Jones will continue to be a visible face. Jones’ teammates get the positive reminder, that the organization will work to retain their own best players. If you perform, you too may be rewarded.

Following two months of winning play, there have been a fair amount of positive National stories about the O’s. The Jones deal will be universally praised as well. Players in other organizations are likely taking note of these developments. This could help make attracting others easier.

A couple of other general thoughts on the Jones’ extension. A) If you were following Social Media Friday, you saw an overwhelming amount of positive good-will being expressed by what I would call ‘casual fans.’ B) The O’s got an immediate tangible expression of that good-will, with the largest walk-up crowd in OPACY history Friday night. C) During the previous 6 months, Baltimore Sports and Life had asked a lot of Baseball Writers & Analysts (https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=4196) their thoughts on the prospects of trading or extending Jones. Whether you were for Jones being extended, or believed the O’s should have traded Jones prior to the season beginning; what becomes clear is that you always pay more, the longer you (as an organization) wait to make a decision. D) Jones was excellent in his Press Conference Sunday. He conveyed a sense of ‘we’ in his comments, not just limited to the O’s, but also off the field and his connection to Baltimore. He wanted to be here. He went all in with this City, and I’m going all in with him. As the O’s honor their All-time greats with the statue unveiling this year, my mind wonders to thinking about what Jones will need to accomplish long-term to eventually have a statue of his own.

Topic 2: Are the O’s too reliant on the HR?

One of the topics on the BSL board, and elsewhere has been the question asking “Is the O’s offense too reliant on the HR?” I’d like to see the O’s be able to manufacture runs easier, but I’m not sure I believe being reliant on the HR is a problem.

I probably would if I thought the power was fluky, but the O’s were 4th overall in homers last year. The O’s leading the Majors this year is not happening by accident.  What I think is fairly remarkable, is that the O’s enter today just 21st in on-base %, but 8th overall in runs. If the O’s can get the obp up (and they might with a returning Reynolds, Roberts, and Reimold), they might be in position to score as much as anyone.

Topic 3: Wieters

There is a good thread on our Message Board (https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=922) discussing the prospects of an extension for Wieters. I think our posters have done a good job outlining what it would take. With the Jones extension done, it will be interesting to see if there is motivation from either Wieters or the Orioles to begin working on a deal.

Focusing back on his play this year, the O’s need more from him, if the team is going to sustain their early start. In April, Wieters was playing at a MVP level. In May, he has been abysmal. At the minimum, he has to be between those extremes the rest of the way. Truthfully, the O’s need him to be a regular force in the middle of the lineup. I think for the O’s to be elite, he has to be elite.

His split stats are again interesting:
2009 vs. LHP 137 ab’s: .671 OPS, 3 hr’s, 6 doubles
2009 vs. RHP 217 ab’s: .804 OPS, 6 hr’s, 9 doubles

2010 vs. LHP 119 ab’s: .564 OPS, 2 hr’s, 8 doubles
2010 vs. RHP 327 ab’s: .741 OPS, 9 hr’s, 14 doubles

2011 vs. LHP 121 ab’s: 1.124 OPS, 11 hr’s, 10 doubles
2011 vs. RHP 379 ab’s: .665 OPS, 11 hr’s, 18 doubles

2012 vs. LHP 38 ab’s: .675 OPS, 0 hr’s, 1 double
2012 vs. RHP 117 ab’s: .797 OPS, 8 hr’s, 6 doubles

Looking at his production month-to-month over the past year is also interesting:
May 2012: .635 OPS
April 2012: .937 OPS
September 2011: .867 OPS
August 2011: .951 OPS
July 2011: .685 OPS
June 2011: .665 OPS
May 2011: .678 OPS
April 2011: .826 OPS

Maybe June will be another scorching Month?

Past his offense, what are your thoughts on his defense this year? Like last year, he has controlled the running games of opposing teams, does a good job calling games, and is a wall blocking the plate (be it pitches in the dirt, or runners crashing into him). That said, I think his defense has been a dropped a bit. Errors are not a great way to measure things, but he does have 5 errors in 38 games this year, after having 5 errors in each of the last two years. His throwing has been less consistent. Every throw last year year was a strike, perfectly located. Not so in 2012.

Topic 4: The Roster July 1st?

What is the roster going to look like a month from now? Obviously you don’t know what additional injuries may occur. However, without further injuries, the roster I hope to see is:

Hammel, Chen, Matusz, Arrieta, Britton
Johnson, Strop, Lindstrom, Ayala, O’Day, Patton, Hunter

Roberts 2nd
Reimold LF
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Wieters C
Hardy SS
Reynolds 3rd
Davis 1st
Betemit DH

Paulino, Andino, Tolleson, Johnson

Thoughts:
A) I would not anticipate Roberts playing more than 4 times a week between 2nd and DH. Andino would continue to get time at 2nd, and with Tolleson would be a defensive replacement for Reynolds at 3rd.

B) A returning Britton would force Hunter to the pen. With Pomeranz’s injury, the bullpen becomes easier to project. You could look at things as Lindstrom replacing Gregg, and Hunter replacing Eveland. I think both would be upgrades, even with Gregg pitching better in recent weeks.

C) Reimold returning to the everyday lineup a month from now is certainly a question. If it happens, Avery goes back to AAA to play everyday. If you had the roster availability, I would not be totally opposed to Avery staying, even if Reimold was starting in LF. Doing what is best for the individual player changes a bit if the team itself is trying to win. I could picture Avery making sense off the bench as a PR, and defensive replacement in LF. Ultimately though, if Reimold gets back, the roster is going to be very crunched.

You will note that in addition to sending Avery back to Norfolk, I also do not have Flaherty on the roster. I’m not losing Johnson, because I’m tied to having Flaherty stay on the roster as a Rule V pick. Andino is obviously not leaving the roster in any form. So, if you did not work a trade for Flaherty, it would be at the expense of Tolleson. Both can play 2nd, 3rd, SS, and LF. I think Tolleson has a better bat. Getting compensation back to the Cubs, which allows you to put Flaherty back at AAA makes the most sense.

D) While I have Reynolds at 3rd above as what I would like to see, I do not believe the O’s agree. I’ll be surprised to see Reynolds play 3rd with regularity for the O’s again. I think you could live with Reynolds starting there, knowing you have multiple defensive replacements available.