Orioles sign Guerrero and a look at the current roster

While I wish I would have seen the headline of the O’s signing Vlad Guerrero prior to the 2004 season, I am still excited by the news of the Orioles signing Guerrero here today in 2011.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Baltimore-Orioles-agree-to-deal-with-DH-Vladimir-Guerrero-020411

I have to admit, that I am surprised that the O’s were willing to go $8M for Guerrero, and even more surprised that they have deferred money on the contract. We will learn more about that deferred money later, and we can debate the merits of that then. As of right now, this is the latest interesting move in what has been an interesting off-season for the Baltimore Orioles. With Guerrero, the roster looks like:

Roberts 2nd
Markakis RF
Lee 1st
Scott LF
Guerrero DH
Reynolds 3rd
Wieters C
Jones CF
Hardy SS

Bench:
Tatum, Pie, Izturis, Fox

Rotation:
Matusz, Guthrie, Arrieta, Bergesen, Duchscherer

Bullpen Locks:
Uehara, Gonzalez, Gregg, Johnson, Berken

Bullpen Options:
VandenHurk, Accardo, Hendrickson, Rosario, Rapada, Patton

As I said above, I am excited about the signing of Guerrero; even if it means my favorite positional player (Reimold) is now ticketed for AAA, and Felix Pie becomes the de facto 4th Outfielder.

I enjoy watching Reimold as a player, because I believe he plays the game correctly. I also think he is closer to the player he showed to be as a rookie in 2009, vs. the player that dealt with the Achilles and off-field issues in 2010. At 27 years-old, it is disappointing that Reimold has only had 474 at-bats as a Major Leaguer. Ideally in a 2011 season where contention is not expected, you would use that time to give Reimold additional ML at-bats to help further determine what you have in a player. If someone wants to make the argument that is a better use of time vs. signing a player in Guerrero (who may not be part of the team when you expect to contend) I can not disagree with the logic.

Still, I think you can understand the rationale used by the O’s here. Reimold’s 2010 season was such a complete loss (.610 OPS in Baltimore over 116 at-bats, .738 OPS in Norfolk over 337 at-bats) that you can not blame the Orioles for seeking a level of production more likely to occur. Having had losing seasons from ’98 through ’10, at some-point it does matter to try and win every game possible. Even if the difference with Guerrero over Reimold is just a game or two in terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR), a game or two of improvement should not be discounted for an organization seeking to change perceptions.

The same discussion points above also relate to Pie. Pie turns 26 in a couple of weeks, and based on what he has shown as both a Minor Leaguer and during his 183 games with the Orioles; you would like to see what he could produce over the course of an entire season of at-bats. With Guerrero (and the assumption that Scott is not traded) Pie is destined to start 2011 as the 4th OF. It will be up to Showalter to make sure he finds at-bats for Pie. Again, while being able to pencil in a regular opportunity for Pie in 2011 might be ideal, you can not blame the O’s for taking a step to improve today.

If the ramifications to Reimold and Pie are part of the equation of the Guerrero signing, the other part is an evaluation of the type of production you can expect to receive from Guerrero himself.

Guerrero will turn 36 on February 9th. As a 35 year old in 2010, he produced the following numbers:

152 games, 593 at-bats, .841 OPS, 29 homers, 115 RBI, .300 AVG, 60 k’s.

He had a .932 OPS against LHP (151 at-bats), and a .810 OPS against RHP (442 at-bats).
He had a .882 OPS at-home in Texas, vs. just a .797 OPS on the road.
Before the All-Star Break he had a .919 OPS, after the Break he had a .748 OPS. (Though he did have a .880 OPS in September)

Here is a look at some of the advanced metrics for his 2010 season vs. his career averages:

2010 BB% (BB / PA) = 5.4%
Career BB% = 8.5%

2010 K% (K / AB) = 10.1%
Career K% = 12.2%

2010 BB/K% = 0.58%
Career BB/K% = 0.78%

2010 ISO (SLG – AVG) = .196
Career ISO = .243

2010 BABIP (Batting avg balls in play) = .292
Career BAPIP = .317

2010 wOBA (weighted On-base average) = .360
Career BAPIP = .394

The numbers show that while 2010 was another wildly successful season for Guerrero, he is in a decline from his career averages. (Though it is interesting that his strikeout rate was lower) Clearly his career averages are Hall of Fame caliber, so even in a decline he is capable of producing more than most others. The question as he turns 36 is how quickly will he drop from his 2010 numbers to what will become the end of his career?

The answer to that remains to be seen, but what I do know is that the Orioles are a better team today with him. I also know by the early comments of his new teammates, his addition is greatly welcomed in the Oriole clubhouse. Even if the focus is on ‘tomorrow’ and not ‘today’, you can still argue for Guerrero. He could be traded in July for additional prospects, or with a strong year could bring draft compensation.

My favorite quote of the evening is from an Oriole Executive to Buster Olney of ESPN, “It looks like a Yankee lineup.” That O’s Executive is right. The O’s are going to put out a legitimate lineup 1-9, and the excitement that is building in Baltimore exists with reason.