Orioles sign Hyun-Soo Kim…What’s Next?

The Orioles made a significant move today, agreeing to terms with soon to be 28y/o Korean OFer Hyun-Soo Kim. They have reportedly signed him to a 2 year, $7M contract, which has a chance to give the club great value. The Orioles have jumped into the Asian market in recent years and you can argue that two of those previous signings, Wei Yen Chen and Koji Uehara, are 2 of the top 10 free agent signings the Orioles have ever made. They got excellent production out of both of them but, looking beyond that, those signings keep giving. The Orioles traded Koji for Chris Davis who, of course, has given Baltimore excellent value and is either going to come back or he will net the O’s a draft pick. Same with Chen. He will net the Orioles a pick as well. So, those signings just keep on giving for this organization.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

The Orioles obviously hope Kim can do the same. He is coming off a big year where he showed good power and he walked 100 times compared to just 63 Ks. Unlike many players who come from Asia, he has good plate discipline and obviously doesn’t mind taking a walk. The KBO is only equivalent to AA, so we have to take his stats with a grain of salt. That being said, this is a low risk contract that has nothing but upside attached to it. This is an excellent signing by Duquette but this can’t be the focal point of the offseason.

The Orioles are projected, by MLB Trade Rumors, to spend 42.9M in arbitration cases this off-season. That is for a total of 10 players. You then have another 63.6M tied up in Jones, Jimenez, Hardy, Wieters and O’Day. That gives us 15 players for $106.5M. Unless traded, Gausman, Schoop, Givens, Wright and Joseph are also going to be here and that is about another 2-3M for those 4 players. We will see what happens with Bundy but he is either on the team or on the DL. They also would need to keep recent rule 5 pick, Joey Rickard as well.

So, let’s just say, for the sake of argument, the payroll is at about $111 million for 22 players.

Currently, the roster looks like this:

1st- Trumbo
2nd- Schoop
SS- Hardy
3rd- Machado
LF- Kim
CF- Jones
RF- Alvarez
DH- Reimold
C- Wieters

Flaherty, Joseph, Rickard,

Jimenez
Gonzalez
Tillman
Gausman
Wright

Britton
O’Day
Givens
Brach
Matusz
Bundy

As things stand right now, we need a reliever, a RFer (an improvement over Alvarez) and another bench player. Mike Wright has no business starting in this league IMO but I feel he could make an excellent reliever and moving him to the pen and upgrading the rotation seems like the best thing to do. As things stand right now, the pen figures to be excellent.

Based on all the info out there, the Orioles have offered Davis a contract for 7 years in the neighborhood of $150 million. Some of that is apparently deferred but we don’t know how much. We also have heard the Orioles have interest in Justin Upton, a player I feel is a better investment than Davis. That being said, my guess is Upton will want an opt out (maybe Davis does too?) and if Duquette was been 100% honest this weekend, an opt out will not be given out. I think that’s a poor decision. I have no issue giving a player an opt out and missing out on paying huge money in the declining years. It may not be optimal but it is not going to stop me from signing the top FAs if the guy fits what I want to do.

To me, that leaves Davis and Alex Gordon, a player not likely to request an opt out due to his age, as the only two realistic upper echelon pieces to add to this roster. We have heard of the Orioles being interested in Gordon and we know they wanted a lefty bat to help balance out the lineup but Kim is a lefty, so maybe they are happy with that situation now? They also could look into Jay Bruce, as Cincinnati is in full sell mode now. They got what many believe is a sub par package for Frazier, so maybe Bruce will come cheaper as well?

What the Orioles do next is going to tell where this off-season really goes. They only have a few spots left. We know they want to upgrade the rotation. We have heard them connected to Gallardo (YUCK!) and Kazmir but not really anyone else. I have my mentioned many times that I feel Mat Latos represents a great opportunity for the Orioles and is a much better risk than either of those guys and doesn’t come with a lost pick, like Gallardo does.

I have also made my feelings known that I feel they need to deal Britton. Closers are being overvalued right now and there are enough teams with legit prospects, some of which would be ML ready, that I think you have to pull the trigger. That being said, I also realize that isn’t happening. So, if I am looking at things and saying, how can I add to this team and make it a legit contender, I would sign Upton and Latos. I would also go get Henderson Alvarez. We have the luxury of bringing him back slowly (as he recovers from a shoulder injury) if he isn’t quite ready yet but we can sign him and eventually slot him into the rotation and move Gonzalez to the pen. In the meantime, that bullpen spot can be taken up by TJ MacFarland, Wilson or one of the other young arms that cost no money.

EDIT: Or Wright, as I’ve argued for above.  Also, Worley will factor in here and if you sign a starter and move Gonzalez to the pen, you will have a bit of a roster crunch if Bundy is healthy.  At that point, you look to trade someone, hopefully Matusz.

I think if you put that team on the field, with that bullpen and the team defense, there is a lot of upside there. Obviously, Latos would need to bounce back but I trust him a lot more than most free agent starters.

Of course, that also takes the payroll to the $150M area. Does anyone think that is close to realistic? I don’t but with so many just okay guys taking up so much of the payroll, if you are going to keep them and you want to win an improving AL East division or make the wild card in an improving AL, I don’t see how you can realistically expect to accomplish that goal without obtaining players like these.  You need some high ceiling players to add to what you have.  Just getting a few middling guys isn’t going to work.

The Orioles obviously have the money to spend. Last year, the payroll was +/- $120 million and they tried to sign Markakis and Cruz back for deals that would have added another 25-28M onto the payroll. This off-season, they are prepared to pay Davis over 20 million, so that will get added in. They also want to sign another starter. In other words, if they are serious about what they say, the payroll almost has to be in the $140-150 million range.

The coming weeks will be interesting. Do Davis and Boras cave? Are the Orioles really interested in Upton? Will they spend that huge money on another player that wasn’t on the Orioles? How do they upgrade this middling rotation full of guys who underachieved last year? These are all major questions. Right now, I don’t see them being any better than 4th in the division and probably one of the five worst teams in the AL. Make these moves and you vault back up into contention but right now, you are a middling team with no farm system and there isn’t much worse than that in baseball.

How would you like to see the Orioles proceed during the remainder of this off-season?