Orioles Talk On A Cold January Day

As I begin to write this, it’s 21 degrees in Baltimore.  The only thing of note I’ve done this weekend is watch the NFL’s Wild Card Weekend, and bemoan to myself that most of the local sports discussion the next few months will be focused on prepping for the NFL Draft. 

I actually enjoy Draft talk, but it’s a long road from here until the last weekend in April. There becomes a limit in how much you can hear about 40 times, system fit, need, and value. Mostly I’m just annoyed that that New England and Pittsburgh currently look so well positioned in the AFC, while the Ravens are out of the post-season for the 3rd time in 4 years.

If you are a sports fan like me, days like this have you thinking about the next thing. In some sense Draft coverage is that. It’s thinking about possible additions which will allow for better days ahead. It’s not enough for me currently though.

There are other diversions.

Terps Basketball is another outlet for me. After yesterday’s win in Ann Arbor, Maryland is 13-2 overall, and 2-1 in the Big Ten. The Terrapins have some limitations, but there is good talent on the roster. Tuesday night’s game vs. Indiana will be a good barometer of their ability to compete for a conference title. Getting back to the NCAA Tournament should happen. Wining a couple of games once there is plausible.

College Recruiting – particularly Football recruiting – is that train-wreck I can’t look away from. Coach Durkin has an excellent group of current verbals. Maryland is on-pace for a Top 20 class. There will likely be plenty of news in that regard from now and National Signing Day on February 1st. While I pay attention to what is going on recruiting wise, I can’t live and die with the decisions of 17 year olds. Ultimately my interest is passive. Wake me up on the 1st, and let me know who have legitimately committed to become Terrapins.

I’m looking forward to College Football’s National Championship tomorrow as we get Alabama vs. Clemson Part 2.

I’ll be watching the remainder of the NFL Playoffs, and as football winds down, I’ll watch more random College Basketball. I’ve been flipping back-and-forth between New York and Green Bay in the Frozen Tundra, and the Big Ten clash of Purdue and Wisconsin while writing.

I wouldn’t consider myself a huge NBA fan, but I do keep up on the league. Do enjoy watching Ernie, Kenny, Chuck, and Shaq on TNT’s Inside the NBA.

Maybe you are an NHL fan? Not for me, but there has been a definite rise in Capitals interest throughout Baltimore during the last decade.

The second half of the English Premier League is upon us. Golf and Tennis will be starting. My interest with any of them is passing at best.

So, where does the interest land? What is next?

Baseball.

The answer is always baseball.

FanFest for the Baltimore Orioles is January 28th. A couple of weeks later (February 13th) Pitchers and Catchers report to Spring Training.

Baseball is actually around the corner. An everyday respite from the rest of the world for 6-7 months. Thoughts of warmer weather doesn’t hurt either.

Now if I could just talk myself into being excited about the 2017 Orioles.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Topic 1: I don’t care about winning the off-season; but that doesn’t make it less excruciating to watch.

The Orioles have not had the best cumulative record in the American League from 2012 through 2016 by accident. It wasn’t a 5 year run of smoke and mirrors. It wasn’t Buck magic. They’ve consistently had underrated talent. Showalter and Duquette have effectively extended the roster through their usage of options. The infield defense, power, and bullpens of those ’12, ’13, ’14, ’15, ’16 teams was excellent.

The issues of those teams – the rotation (aside from the 2nd half of ’14), and on-base % – have been consistent as well.

When Edwin Encarnacion ended the Orioles 2016 season on October 4th, Baltimore’s off-season began.

The strengths and limitations of the roster were apparent. The questions the O’s were facing were apparent.

Here in January, have the O’s addressed their limitations? Have they addressed the logical questions they were facing?

For the most part the answer to questions is no. The acquisitions of Castillo, and Smith aren’t about really moving the needle, but to supplement what exists and try to compete again in ’17.

Here in early January, I’m pretty sure that will happen. I fully expect the O’s will enter Spring Training looking like an 85 win team that has the ability to play up and win the 90-92 games likely necessary to reach the playoffs for the 4th time in 6 years.

Duquette is adept at filling out the ends of the roster. He’s also patient. Instead of identifying specific players he wants and going after them – he clearly identifies a pool of similar types and waits (and waits) for the market to fall to them.

You won’t find me denying there is value in that systematic approach. There is.

That said, it’s not my preference. It’s not a matter of wanting ‘action’ for action’s sake. For me, it’s if you’ve decided as an organization you want to bring back the existing core of players and try again with this group; wanting to see the Front Office identify and obtain the players necessary to take the next step.

Smith can be a useful platoon player, who helps address the on-base % issues.
Castillo can reasonably replace Wieters, and bridge the gap to Sisco.

Even if Trumbo signs elsewhere (Oakland, Colorado?), the O’s could potentially obtain a better defensive OF (hopefully also with on-base % skills) and be a more well rounded team.

Will the O’s add someone else who is useful? Yes, they will. Will that acquisition be enough of a difference maker to really matter? That I question.

Topic 2: Quick Thoughts On Castillo.

When the O’s signed Castillo, there were plenty of articles on his pitch-framing issues. I’m not overly worried about that. That wasn’t a strong point of Wieters, and Joseph still exists.

I did initially raise an eyebrow about Castillo never having played in more than 113 games (113 in ’13, 110 in ’14, 110 in ’15, 113 in ’16), but of course he’s a catcher and you don’t expect him to be behind the backstop for 162 games. He did have more innings behind the plate in ’16 than Wieters did.

Joseph is a better player than he showed in ’16. I think he will contribute more.

Will be interesting to see what type of start Castillo gets off to with the O’s. New team, new pitchers, new league (had 6 games with Seattle in ’15).  If he produces, great. If he doesn’t, and Sisco is ripping it up at AAA, and showing improvement behind the plate – how long a leash will Castillo have?

Topic 3: I think the O’s should take a hard look at reuniting with Jason Hammel.

After trading off Gallardo, the O’s 5 man rotation is clear. Gausman, Tillman, Bundy, Jimenez, Miley.

So why would I advocate signing Hammel?  Because he’s a quality arm, and he’s just sitting out there for the taking. He’s the type of player we talked about above. That by waiting out the market, Duquette has been able to find value.

Duquette apparently does have some interest, having told MLB Radio earlier today, “.. We like him, especially the way he pitched for us.”

You are never going to get through a season with just 5 starters.

Having Hammel would just increase your odds of getting through the season. Would also limit the odds of having games started by Wright and Wilson.

Can you get Hammel done for a year? Let him perform, and take another shot at entering the market next off-season?

If so, you could potentially avoid having Bundy begin the year in the rotation. The O’s can talk about letting Bundy loose from the beginning of ’17 all they want now, but that only makes sense if they are internally comfortable about him jumping from 109.2 innings in ’16 to 170+ in ’17. Even if they are (and it it is possible they are), I’d be pleased to go into Spring Training with the additional depth Hammel would represent.

Topic 4: Colby Rasmus?

2016 was a lost year for Rasmus. It’s reasonable to think his offensive struggles were tied to his hip and groin injuries. It was reported on Halloween that Rasmus had surgery on October 18th to repair his core muscle, shave down a bone spur, and repair his left labrum. It was said at the time he would be running full-strength in January, and ready for Spring Training.

Rasmus has come up previously. Showalter met with him previously, and he didn’t sign with the O’s. Was that Showalter not being interested? Rasmus deciding he didn’t want to play under Buck? Rasmus just deciding he liked Houston’s offer better.

He’s a quality defensive OF (even in ’16 his metrics were strong), with pop in his bat. He’s also still available here in January, and would give the O’s a dose of athleticism.

Signing him for 2017, and penciling him in LF makes sense to me. Kim can platoon with Mancini at DH. Smith can be in RF.  If Smith struggles, Rasmus can take over in RF, and you can live with Kim in Left.

1 year for Rasmus definitely appeals to me vs. 4 years of Trumbo.

Topic 5: Beyond Machado and Britton – what about Gausman, Tillman, Schoop, Bundy?

In Topic 1, I talked about the O’s entering the Winter with specific questions. Primarily for me that was Machado and Britton.  Nothing has happened with either. Maybe the O’s disagreed about either being a question.

More likely the O’s have been unable to get anywhere with either in-terms of an extension, and have decided to punt on the question(s) for now. Both will be back in an O’s uniform in ’17, and they (the Front Office and Ownership) will allow the O’s on-field performance to help dictate their subsequent decisions, particularly with Britton. (i.e. are the O’s in a competitive position in July?)

I’m annoyed to no end with this line of thinking.

There are numerous ways to build a team. You can extend both players (with the deals it would take to sign either) and continue to contend. You can trade both players, get back cost-controlled youth, and continue to contend.

You want to sign Machado to an 8-10 year deal at $30M+ in AAV, with opt-outs? Sure you can do that, and still build a team around him. If you do that (offer, and sign him), you will have the Hall of Fame talent locked up through his prime. It’s quite possible if you get him extended that one day there will one day be a #13 Statue outside the Box Office, a Machado statue beyond the bleachers in LCF, and that a large contingent of Baltimore will travel up to Cooperstown, NY one day to see him inducted as an Oriole.

That’s one possible path, and there is plenty of easy appeal.

Count me as one who won’t cry if the O’s trade him. Obviously he’d bring back a ton of talent. Most importantly it would be cost controlled talent. You’d also have the $30M you’d be paying him annually to spend elsewhere on the roster.

As I said above, there is more than one way to build a team.

The only path which I deem unacceptable with Machado is letting him play out h is contract here, without getting anything but draft pick compensation if he were to leave via Free Agency. That can’t happen in my eyes.

This leads back to Topic 1 once more. If you (the Orioles) are willing to play out the next two years with Machado, and potentially see him walk – then you are making that decision with the goal of winning (it all) in ’17 and ’18. If you are trying to win it all in ’17 and and ’18, and that is the sole goal of the organization; then it doesn’t make sense to just wait for the market to fall to you.

Getting past the questions about the futures of Machado and Britton – what about the other four players mentioned above? Tillman is a Free Agent after this coming year. The other three are under contract through 2020. The Baltimore Sun reported in December that the O’s have started preliminary contract talks with Tillman. Is it really that hard to come to a deal if that is a priority of the organization?

Do the O’s not consider looking at extensions with Gasuman, Bundy, and Schoop now because each player has 3 years of team control remaining? Now seems like the perfect time to take on a year or two with each and get the long-term benefit of striking early.