Baltimore Orioles Talk with Neil Weinberg & David Schoenfield

Today the Baltimore Orioles are celebrating their annual FanFest event. To help review the Orioles Winter so far, and to preview what we might be seeing by the O’s this coming year; Baltimore Sports and Life (BSL) has reached out to Neil Weinberg, and David Schoenfield for their thoughts.

BSL thanks both Weinberg and Schoenfield for taking the time to respond. It should be noted that the questions were sent (and Mr. Weinberg responded) prior to the O’s acquisition of Travis Snider.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

BSL: Sportsnet Canada has reported that Toronto’s has broken off negotiations with the O’s regarding EVP of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette, thus ending their interest for now in Duquette potentially replacing Paul Beeston as their Team President. A number of questions here. Do you believe this is now over? Should the O’s have allowed Duquette to leave without compensation in return? If you believe the O’s deserved compensation back from Toronto, do you think this situation – Duquette having 4 years remaining on his contract, Division rivals – differs enough from Theo Epstein leaving Boston for the Cubs, that a possible return to the O’s should have been significant? At this point, is the key question what is the state of the current working relationship between Duquette, O’s Manager Buck Showalter, and Majority Owner Peter Angelos?

Weinberg: I think it’s over until after the season. It’s common practice to let your staff leave for promotions, but I don’t really think that rule is something teams should feel compelled to follow. The O’s signed Duquette to a contract and are obligated to honor their end of it. If Duquette didn’t want to work for the O’s long term, he shouldn’t have signed such a long deal. It’s probably a little bad for the O’s image to hold him to it, but players aren’t allowed to void their deals after a breakout season. The fact that they are rivals is only a small part of this. I think with Theo, the Sox wanted to move on as well, so it was easier to come to terms. It’s probably going to be a little dicey inside the O’s FO, but it also isn’t clear how much Duquette was trying to leave and how much of it was him exploring an option. 

Schoenfield: In baseball, the general rule of thumb is that you don’t prevent an employee from leaving if he’s getting a promotion, as would be the case here with Duquette, but you can certainly understand Angelos’ desire to keep Duquette: He’s built a successful team and he’d be leaving for a division rival. Plus, Duquette IS under contract, so I definitely would not have let him left without some sort of significant compensation from the Blue Jays. As far as moving forward from here, as long as Duquette and ownership are on the same page, there’s no reason the team the relationship can’t continue to work.

BSL: When the story initially broke, we wrote about some possible replacements for Duquette if his departure became official. We recently had another Q&A with some other writers & analysts, who provided their thoughts on potential hires who would have made sense. On January 15th, Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun reported that the O’s would have had initial interest in 4 ex-GM’s – Ned Colletti, Kevin Towers, Omar Minaya, and Kevin Malone. Had Duquette left, who would you have suggested the O’s hire, and what do think of the known candidates the O’s were purportedly interested in?

Weinberg: The known candidates would have been a big downgrade. I don’t think many unbiased people would have been excited about those names, but finding a GM in January is trickier than in October. I would probably target Coppolella, Grisch, or Avila. A GM-in-training over a guy with GM on his resume.

Schoenfield: Well, if those four were indeed candidates who would have been considered, I wouldn’t have been optimistic about the future of the club. Those four would certainly be regarded as “old-school” general managers not well versed in the new world of analytics. Colletti “built” the Dodgers into a winner the past couple of seasons, but spent millions of ill-advised money along the way with terrible free-agent signings and mediocre players. At one point a few years, Towers had built a good young team in Arizona that looked poised to have a successful stretch making the playoffs in 2011 but a series of terrible trades and a philosophy of “grit and guts” over strong analysis led to his demise. Minaya and Malone probably weren’t serious candidates.

BSL: The O’s currently have 6 viable starters. BSL’s own Rob Shields provided some best case / worst case scenarios for each. How do you view this group as a collective? As we get closer to the arrival of Pitchers & Catchers, the question locally is how will things break out when the season starts? Might Gausman be sent back to AAA once more? Might Jimenez or Gonzalez start the year in the bullpen? Should the O’s consider moving Norris, or Chen? Of course injuries and time have a way of sorting things out.

Weinberg: It’s not a secret that the O’s lack an ace, but having 6 starters is a good thing, especially when you’re counting Jimenez as one of them given his uncertainty. Tillman and Gausman ought to have their spots secured already and I’d favor Jimenez to the pen among the other four. Someone will get hurt or will have a rough go of it and you’ll need number six. 

Schoenfield: People worry too much about putting a designated order on the rotation. Nobody goes through a season with five starters, so you need depth. At some point, all will get the opportunity to pitch and the ones who stay healthy and do well will remain in the rotation. The rotation is certainly the biggest key to the 2015 Orioles. The group was very solid in 2014, especially in the second half, despite an overall strikeout rate below the league average. Because of that low K rate, the projection systems don’t rate this group very highly, one reason a lot of the more analytical writers don’t like the O’s to repeat as division champs. As for Gausman, I think he’s in the rotation all years. We saw his power arm in the postseason pitching out of the pen; now it’s time to see what he can do with 30-plus starts.

BSL: Is Jay Bruce obtainable for the O’s? Meaning do you see Cincinnati being willing to move him, and do think the O’s would match-up with a return? If so, would you advocate Baltimore matching the price tag you think it would take?

Weinberg: Yes, the Reds would move him. I think the O’s could meet the price but my willingness to do so would hinge on taking a look at his medicals. If he’s going to be useful, he needs his legs under him.

Schoenfield: Obviously, the Travis Snider trades brings more depth to the outfield. Bruce is coming off a terrible seasons but is signed to a pretty team-friendly contract, so it wouldn’t make sense for the Reds to sell low on him anyway.

BSL:  What is your level of confidence in Chris Davis producing somewhere between his 2012 and 2013 numbers this year? A .915 OPS, a .386 wOBA, a 4.5 fWAR type of season. If he does perform at that level, what type of contract do you believe he will be looking at next off-season?

Weinberg: I think that’s a little heavy. Maybe try 2012 Davis with a little more OBP. But that’s a 3 WAR player, which is plenty exciting. Something bigger than the Nelson Cruz and Victor Martinez deals, but south of $100 million.

Schoenfield: When you dig into the numbers, there wasn’t an obvious reason for Davis’ bad season – it looks like he hit into a lot of bad luck. His strikeout and walk rates held steady and his line-drive rate was actually better than in 2014. Yes, he had a lower percentage of his fly balls leave the park, but that was to be expected; he wasn’t going to hit 54 home runs again. I’d expect numbers more similar to 2012 — .260, 35 to 40 home runs – which maybe makes him about a 3.5-WAR type of player. As for contract if he produces like that, he’ll be entering his age-30 season in 2016 with a mixed rate of production. I’d guess maybe a five-year, $80 million deal. I don’t think he’s going to be viewed a $100 million player unless he has another monster year.

BSL: Wieters missed significant time in ’14, and the offensive production of his replacements was minimal. As such, the O’s will welcome back his bat this year. That said, the majority of his historical value as a player has been tied to his defense. My concern with a possible extension is what happens if he has to move out from behind the plate during that contract. The idea that his bat would not play great at DH or 1st. Agree with this concern, or no? If you are in favor of the O’s offering an extension, what type of deal makes sense to you?

Weinberg: No extension for Wieters unless the O’s feel really good about his recovery or if he offers a big discount to protect against the risk. He’s a really solid player, but he’s the kind of guy whose name carries more weight that his production. Let someone else overpay.

Schoenfield: I don’t think any deal makes sense right now until you see how he’s throwing and whether the hot start he had in 2014 was real improvement at the plate or just a hot start. Based on the way he’s hit in the past, he doesn’t have much value as a first baseman or DH. There’s no sense signing him to a long-term deal if you don’t think he can catch the entire contract.

BSL: For the second consecutive season, the O’s most talented all-around player (my opinion) saw his season end early with a knee injury.  Steamer’s projection of a .271 /.319 /.436 slash line matches what I believe should be the minimal expectations for the O’s 3rd baseman this year. Last year Machado was impacted by not being able to train last Winter, and missing all of Spring Training. While he joined the O’s lineup on May 1st, that entire Month was essentially spent working his way back into game shape. Still years away from what should be the prime of his career, Machado enters ’15 with nearly 1,200 MLB at-bats under his belt. My anticipation is that we see his offense take a leap production wise with gains in both his on-base %, and slugging %. I look for his LD%, and ISO to increase, and for his K% to decrease. What is your level of concern about Machado’s health going forward, and what do you anticipate from him (general terms) over the next couple of years?

Weinberg: Health issues are always very hard to forecast, but we’re dealing with the kind of thing that’s probably going to nag him forever. It’s not necessarily that he’s injury prone, but multiple serious leg injuries are going to take a toll on his development. I think he’ll be a really good player when on the field, but might end up being the kind of guy who needs a couple of DL stints every year.

Schoenfield: There’s no way of knowing, of course, but two major injuries at a young age … I don’t see how that can be viewed as anything but a negative. Obviously, modern medicine mitigates a lot of things compared to the past, but baseball history is rife with potential superstars who never got there because of injuries. Certainly, if healthy, he should be one of the best all-around players in the league – maybe top 25 overall with his range and expected improvement at the plate.

BSL: Which FA departure – Markakis, Miller, or Cruz – will the O’s miss most in ’15, and of the three; is there one you believe the O’s should have pushed harder to resign?

Weinberg: Miller. Markakis is a nice player, but he’s no longer a star. Cruz had a big year, but if they kept him for 2015 it’s unlikely he’d do anything similar. Miller was huge down the stretch, but the O’s have enough depth that they didn’t really need to top $36 million to get him.

Schoenfield: Well, they’ll obviously miss Cruz’s 2014 production but you can make a strong argument that, considering what other teams paid to sign those three, the Orioles were wise to let all three walk.

BSL: Of all the players who have switched teams as FA’s (or by trade) this Winter, who do you see as the O’s biggest miss?

Weinberg: At the price, Melky Cabrera would have been interesting, but I was a big advocate for them targeting someone like Scherzer in free agency. Jason Heyward or Ben Zobrist would have been interesting too.

Schoenfield: Melky Cabrera would have been a nice fit for the outfield and signed a three-year deal for $42 million, which wouldn’t have been prohibitive. But he’s not a good defensive outfielder and considering the Orioles’ rotation, defense in the outfield will be important. Plus, it’s possible David Lough plus Snider plus Steve Pearce plus Alejandro De Aza will actually provide good results in the corners.

BSL: As of today, the O’s roster looks like this:   (EDIT: Again, this was prior to the Snider trade.)

Alejandro De Aza, LF
Manny Machado, 3rd
Adam Jones, CF
Chris Davis, 1st
Steve Pearce, RF
Matt Wieters, C
JJ Hardy, SS
Delmon Young, DH
Jonathan Schoop, 2nd

Bench: Joseph, Flaherty, Lough, Paredes
Rotation: Tillman, Chen, Norris, Gausman, Gonzalez
Bullpen: Britton, O’Day, Hunter, McFarland, Matusz or Wright, Webb, Jimenez  (Brach, Garcia, Verrett as other options.)

What jumps out to you? Where do you currently have the O’s finishing in the AL East?

Weinberg: The bullpen depth. You can never predict bullpens, but they aren’t going to implode on you. I think the Red Sox and Blue Jays are better, but it’s going to be tight top to bottom and I expect them to contend all the way through.

Schoenfield: Aside from the rotation, they clearly need a rebound year from Davis and Pearce to prove 2014 wasn’t a fluke. If those two produce, the offense could struggle to score enough runs.

Haven’t figured out my standings yet – like a lot of people I see the AL East as a potential five-way dogfight. I think I’d have the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles slightly ahead of the Yankees and Rays.

BSL: Over the past 3 years the general profile of the O’s has been plus defense, power, limited on-base skills, a rotation that is competitive but underwhelming, and a quality bullpen. Will the O’s profile differently this year?

Weinberg: That’s the team. 

Schoenfield: No. Looks like the same type of club.