Last week I wrote about three guys on the Orioles. It was truly a paradigm-breaking article. You should read it, but here’s the summation: three guys who likely aren’t part of the Orioles long-term future but who can maybe be useful for a few years and/or gain some trade value. Games are starting up this week but until then there’s no actual baseball to write about, so let’s head back to that extremely deep, extremely wet well and look at three more dudes! Today we’ll explore Anthony Santander, Austin Hays (which I badly want to spell ‘Hayes’), and DJ Stewart. Let’s start with, well, is it San-TAN-der or is it SAN-tan-der? This is one of those problems writers have when they have to do things like actually talk to people. I’ll just trust that we are both pronouncing it correctly in our heads.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
Anyway, Anthony Santander isn’t unlike Renato Nunez (who isn’t unlike DJ Stewart who isn’t unlike Ryan Mountcastle, who isn’t unlike Yuniel Diaz. It seems the O’s have a type! Yes, these aren’t exactly the same players, and indeed some may fail while others have successful careers, but either way they are variations on a theme. The power-hitting semi-athletic corner outfielder is strong with this team. Unlike Mountcastle and Stewart (who we’ll get to later in this article), Santander hit 20 homers in the majors last season. “OK, sure,” you might say. “I hit 20 homers in the majors last season and I’m a middle manager at Paper Pushers, Inc.” First, congrats. Second, you might want to rethink that company name. Third, fair point. It was quite easy to hit homers last season, compared to just about every other season in baseball history since 1987. But! Santander hit his 20 in just 93 games. The power is real is the point, and that has value. The problem is, well, everything after that.
Though he’s just 25, the lack of plate discipline – he really doesn’t walk much – and the lack of any other standout skill at all, means Santander is still a work in progress. For the Orioles, where they are in their rebuild right now, that’s fine. But on this roster with the players Baltimore has coming up in the system, Santander could get pushed to the edges pretty soon (see the list of similar players above). Maybe Mountcastle is a first baseman (wouldn’t surprise me) and Nunez is a DH (O’s fans hope) and then you’ve got to have Santander in the outfield every day. There are worse things, sure, but that means either his bat has to improve to justify his place in the lineup, or his defense has to improve to justify playing a hitter with no plate discipline or speed and a low batting average. We all love dingers, it’s true, but whether the bigwigs at MLB’s offices in New York know it or not, there is more to baseball than homers, and for Santander to help this organization, he’s going to have to bring that truism to life.
Next dude is Hays, who happens to be the first player in this series that I’m genuinely excited about. I’m not sure he’s going to be a star, but he has attributes beyond just power that make him a useful player and potentially more than that. The hitting is, well, see above. Hays hits for power and doesn’t take many walks. You must be shocked. At his best his offense might resemble Santander, or Nunez, or Mountcastle, or Diaz, or, well, you get the point. The major difference between Hays and those other guys is that Hays can play defense well at an important up-the-middle position. [falls to knees] Praise the heavens!
But there’s more! Hays is fast and has been able to translate that into some base-running ability as well. Mostly that speed allows him to play center field well enough that it wouldn’t be a stretch to have him as the O’s everyday center fielder. Because the defense plays there, Hays doesn’t have to hit 30 homers to justify his presence in the lineup. But he might do it anyway! He has some real power, hitting 21 homers over four minor league levels and a short season-ending stint in Baltimore last season. There are some injury concerns, and yes, he doesn’t or at least hasn’t yet figured out that taking the occasional walk is a good idea, but Austin Hays has more than one major league skill, and that means he could be an actual building block for the organization, not just a ‘hope he has a decent season so we can flip him for a relief prospect’ guy. He is probably the Oriole I’m most excited to watch this season.
They say always leave ‘em wanting more so how’s this for a depressing (not so) fun fact: Guess who was drafted one pick ahead of DJ Stewart in the first round of the 2015 draft? Walker Buehler. But don’t feel bad because Buehler was picked one slot ahead so the O’s never had a shot at him, right? Right! Power of positive thinking! Nice work. We’ll move on, ignoring that three picks later Mike Soroka was picked by the Braves to say that DJ Stewart… well, he’s basically Anthony Santander. I mean, he’s not, but he is, which sucks because the O’s passed on some guys to get him back in 2015, but what can you do? The draft is a crapshoot. As for Stewart himself, he’s got some power, but not a ton, and some speed, but not a ton, and he’s not much defensively, anywhere, really. Now that all said, guys get their lights turned on mid-career all the time, so perhaps there’s something more here than what we’ve seen so far.
If you’re looking for positives, Stewart refined his swing before the 2019 season and crushed it in Triple-A last season, batting .291/.396/.548 with 12 homers in 63 games. That’s some serious power and on-base ability on display there. If he’s going to hit like that then you don’t need to worry about the defense, so maybe that’s on the horizon. It is certainly debatable.
Stewart is poised through draft pedigree and his recent minor league success to earn a good chunk of playing time this season. What he does with that will go a long way to determining his future role with the franchise. As you can maybe tell from the tone of this article, I’m not as sanguine about him as I am about Hays, so it’s likely Hays will flame out and Stewart is headed for the Hall of Fame. Stranger things have happened. Like the 2020 baseball season, for example.
Orioles Analyst
Matthew Kory is a Orioles / MLB Analyst for BSL. He has covered baseball professionally for The Athletic, Vice Sports, Sports On Earth, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. He lives in Portland, Oregon with his wife, two boys, and his cats, Mini Squeaks and The President. Co-Host of The Warehouse.