The Baltimore Orioles are heading to the playoffs for the 3rd time in 5 years. The is the second time in that same time span that the Orioles are the second wild card team and heading on the road. Back in 2012, the Orioles headed to Texas, as the underdog and beat the Rangers before losing a tough 5 game series to the Yankees. This year, the Orioles head to Toronto to face one of their rivals and a team that many O’s fans have grown to hate.
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The Orioles and Blue Jays both finished with 89-73 wins but since the Jays won the season series, they get the home game. The Jays have been the more balanced team in terms of home and road record. They won 46 at home and 43 on the road. The Orioles, who had one of the best home records in all of baseball (only 4 teams won more home games than the Orioles did) had 50 wins at home and only 39 on the road. So, when you look at that, the Jays have an advantage there. At home, the Orioles pitching have a 3.81 ERA. They have allowed a slash line of 251/322/405/727 and a wOBA of 316. The team K rate is 7.9, BB rate is 3.2 and the HR rate is 1.08. On the road, they have a 4.64 ERA. They have allowed a slash line if 259/335/438 and a wOBA of 331. The team K rate is 7.8, the BB rate is 3.65 and the HR rate is 1.22.
They are also a better team at home offensively as well. On the road, they have a slash line of 253/310/433/743. The team wOBA is 318 and the team wRC+ is 98. At home, that slash line is 259/324/455/779. The wOBA is 334 and the team wRC+ is 104.
All these numbers speak for themselves. The Orioles, both in terms of stats and record, are worse on the road vs. home. The good news is, this is a 1 game season right now and for one game, those numbers don’t mean much and those numbers didn’t stop this team from winning 89 games and staking claim to one of the few precious playoff spots.
Today, the starting pitching match-ups were announced. The Orioles are throwing out the guy who has been their best and most consistent starter over this recent 5 year run, Chris Tillman. Tillman got a taste of the postseason in 2014. He made 2 starts. His first start was ok. He went 5 IP and gave up 2 runs. However, he gave up 5 runs in 4.1 IP in his one start vs. the Royals.
The Blue Jays will be throwing Marcus Stroman, a 25 year old with 360 IP at the major league level. Stroman got a taste of postseason baseball last year. He had 3 starts that totaled 19.1 IP. He gave up 10 runs (9 earned), 22 hits, 1 homer, 10 Ks and walked 4.
As you can see, neither pitcher has been that great in the small sampling they each have in the playoffs. Also, if you look at how these guys match-up vs. the opposing team, its not pretty there either. The current Blue Jays roster has over 300 at bats vs. Tillman and the collective slash line is 299/368/580/948. They have 20 homers off of him. He does have a 3.63 ERA vs. the Jays this year. That is over the course of 4 starts. The 4 starts totaled 22.1 IP. He only went 6 full innings in 1 of the 4 starts (although he never went less than 5 either). He walked 9 batters in those 22 innings. That has to improve.
Stroman has a 7.04 ERA vs. the Orioles this year. Like Tillman, he also has 4 starts vs. the opposition this year and he threw 23 innings. He gave up 18 runs in these 4 starts, which included 4 homers. The current Os roster has a slash line of 309/347/496/843 slash line and that includes 6 homers.
I find the Jays decision to go with Stroman more puzzling than the Orioles decision. The O’s could have gone with Ubaldo Jimenez, who has been the best starting pitcher not named Gausman, the last 6 weeks. His last starts vs. Toronto have been very good, he has gone deeper into games than Tillman has and his overall career numbers are better. However, prior to his injury, Tillman was in the CY Young discussion and if that shoulder is feeling good, I understand why Showalter went that route, even though I don’t agree with it. Toronto’s decision was easier IMO. The Orioles are one of the worst team in all of baseball vs. lefties this year. The team OPS vs. lefties is 692. The wRC+ is 83 (100 is average). That is terrible. On top of that, they just faced Francisco Liriano just last week. Liriano struck out 10 O’s batters in 6.1 IP. He gave up just 6 hits, walked one and didn’t allow a run. Liriano also ended the season strong. He had a 2.03 ERA in September. That covered 26.2 IP. The most runs he allowed in any outing was 2 and he has only allowed more than 2 runs in 2 of his 8 starts since coming to Toronto and in one of those starts, he let up 3 runs. Stroman had a good 3.41 ERA this month but wasn’t as dominant as Liriano. I believe the Orioles caught a break here. Now, don’t get me wrong, over the course of a season or multiple seasons, I think Stroman is a better pitcher than Liriano and he is probably more trustworthy but I think Liriano is pitching better right now and he definitely represents a worse matchup.
I think if you told either manager right now that their starter would go 6 innings and give up 3 runs, they would both take that outcome. I think both managers went the safe route with their choice. To be able to get into the back end up their pens and keep their team in the game is all either of those managers could really hope for.
After seeing all of that, who has the edge in this game? Offensively, the teams are close. The Jays get on base better but the Orioles slugging and BA is better. wOBA is almost identical. Defensively, they are both very good. The Orioles have gotten better since adding Bourn to play a corner OF spot. They both get excellent infield defense and are lead by arguably the 2 best all around third basemen in baseball, Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson. The Blue Jays have had the better starting pitching this year but the Os have been better this month. The real separation is with the bullpens. For the month of September, the Orioles led the AL in bullpen ERA at 1.70. The Jays were 13th, with a 4.80 ERA. Roberto Osuna, their closer, blew 3 straight saves last week and Joaquin Benoit, who they acquired at the deadline, hurt his calf in the brawl vs. the Yankees and is probably out of this game. Benoit had a sub 1 ERA in September. Brett Cecil also had a strong final month with a 1.04 ERA. He almost definitely will pitch in this game, especially vs. Chris Davis (Buck should think of pinch hitting for Davis in that situation but he won’t do it). After those 2, it’s been a real struggle this month for Toronto and I look for that to continue. The Orioles have the more experienced and battle tested pen. Their pen is pitching much better and they have the best closer in baseball available for more than 1 inning in this game.
These two teams have played a lot of close games this year and when you are involved in close games, the bullpens usually come into play. I believe we will see some runs scored in this game but the Orioles will get one more and Britton will record the final 6 outs of the game and advance Baltimore to the ALDS vs. Texas. O’s win 5-4.
Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight