O’s Q&A with Brittany Ghiroli, MLB.com

With Robert Andino’s single to LF last night, Brittany Ghiroli’s second year as the MLB.com beat writer for the Baltimore Orioles came to a close.

With the action on the field now suspended until Spring, the focus turns to the Hot Stove. Baltimore Sports and Life thanks Ghiroli for taking the time to give some of her thoughts on the O’s.

You can find Ghiroli’s work at:

http://brittghiroli.mlblogs.com/
Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/Britt_Ghiroli

Baltimore Sports and Life: “While rumors persist that Orioles Majority Owner Peter Angelos is attempting to retain President of Baseball Operations Andy MacPhail, most people anticipate that Mr. MacPhail will announce his departure from the organization as early as this Thursday.

On June 24^th, Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun reported that current MLB Network commentator and former GM John Hart is the name he had heard the most often as a potential replacement for MacPhail. On August 19^th, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweeted that the O’s were a possibility for the Yankees’ Brian Cashman. On September 7^th, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports stated Scouts were talking about Florida’s Asst. GM Dan Jennings, or Toronto’s Asst. GM Tony LaCava as options for Baltimore.

If MacPhail definitively does not return, some of the candidates I would like to see considered are:

Paul DePodesta, Mets Vice President of Player Development & Scouting
Josh Byrnes, Padres Vice President of Baseball Operations
John Coppolella, Braves Director of Baseball Administration
Bob Miller, Reds Vice President and Assistant General Manager
Rich Hahn, White Sox Vice President and Assistant General Manager
Allard Baird, Red Sox Vice President Player Personnel
Charley Kerfeld, Phillies Special Assistant to the General Manager
Logan White, Dodgers Assistant General Manager / Director of Amat. & Intl. Scouting (Former O’s West Coast Supervisor)
Ben Cherington, Red Sox Vice President of Player Personnel
Gord Ash, Brewers Vice President and Assistant General Manager
Tom McNamara, Mariners Director of Amateur Scouting
RJ Harrison, Rays Director of Amateur Scouting
Gerry Hunsicker, Rays Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations
Kim Ng, Major League Baseball Vice President of Baseball Operations
Tyrone Brooks, Pirates Director of Baseball Operations (Maryland native)
Amiel Sawdaye, Red Sox Director of Amateur Scouting (Baltimore native)
AJ Preller, Rangers Senior Director of Player Personnel

I have personally spoken to four very qualified Executives, who would be interested in the job, but will not necessarily even inform the O’s of their interest. Should MacPhail leave, who do you believe is the favorite, and who would be your personal choice?”

Ghiroli: “Buck Showalter is probably the favorite at this point, for reasons that have been written about by myself and the other Orioles beat reporters. While there’s a lot of good candidates on this list (and a few that aren’t on here as well) Showalter clearly has the ear of Peter Angelos and that’s something that can’t be understated. I wouldn’t rule out a scenario where Showalter stays in the dugout – I think he’s mulling it over because he still enjoys managing – but his biggest impact would be in the front office. He wasn’t ready in Texas years ago when they tried to move him upstairs, and he seems to be on the fence now. But who else could come in and have cart blanche to do whatever is necessary to turn things around?”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In a Baseball America poll (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/best-tools/2011/2612213.html) of Major League Managers, Adam Jones was ranked as the 2^nd best defensive CF in the American League. On the other-side you have the most advanced defensive metrics which state Jones is a below average CF. I tend to believe that the truth lies between those two extremes. Jones currently has a Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) of .338, and his Isolated Power (ISO) is .182. For the 2^nd consecutive year, he has played in 149+ games. For the 3^rd consecutive year his OPS falls within the range of .767 to .792. He finished 25 homers, and 26 doubles. Jones is a Free Agent after the 2013 season. By Opening Day 2012, do you think the O’s need to have either extended him or traded him? If you would like to see him extended, what type of contract do you think would be fair?”

Ghiroli: “I don’t think the Orioles have to necessarily extend Jones this winter. I do think, like last off-season, the topic will be broached.  But if you’re thinking organizationally about winning you have to consider what gives this team the best chance to win a World Series, and sustain that success, and for that you need to see what you have in your arms. If the Orioles current crop of young arms doesn’t bounce back in the first half of next season –or at least show signs of progressing forward — you are looking at a team that has to be stripped down and rebuilt. (Of course you can make that argument that that needs to happen now…) If the organization goes into rebuild mode, it would have to determine if Jones, who will turn 27 next season, would be a part of that and the answer is no.  Do I think Jones is an above-average player when you take all things into account, offense, defensive, intangibles? Yes. He is one of several players who, in my opinion, have benefitted immensely from Showalter. I think 2012 will be a paramount year for him, and in a perfect world, I think he’s a player the Orioles would love to see man centerfield for years to come. But, and I’m not telling Orioles fans anything they don’t already know, things are far from perfect.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Matusz was extremely strong over his last 10 starts of 2010, and abysmal over his 12 outings here in 2011. Like Jones’s defense, I think the truth about Matusz is probably somewhere in the middle and I expect a rebound in performance in 2012. I do think he absolutely needs to earn his spot next Spring though. What are your thoughts on the young lefty?”

Ghiroli: “I was one of Matusz’s biggest critics this season after watching him slog through a spring of setbacks and unimpressive tune-up starts. I was equally down on him after watching how he handled coming back from injury, finally admitting he wasn’t in great physical shape to start the season and always giving the media the old, “I was a few pitches away” cliché after each outing.  Forget frontline starter, I wasn’t convinced Matusz would be a factor for the Orioles at all moving forward.

But something changed for me after watching Matusz on the last roadtrip of the year. The 24-year-old lefty was out every day doing something, whether it was throwing, running, working with pitching Rick Adair, etc. And then came the decision for Matusz to throw against the Tigers and –for the first time – I saw some real progress, both in his stuff and in his postgame demeanor. He took responsibility for his season, he called this year the hardest of his life, and he said he would use this feeling as motivation because he never wanted to feel like this again. I believed him, and –from what I’ve gathered in recent conversations — those around the team do, too.

Is it a given Matusz bounces back? Absolutely not. But he’s my early pick to have a big season in 2012 and regain a middle of the rotation spot.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In 2011, Arrieta saw improvement in his K/9, Line Drive %, Ground Ball %, and First Strike %. With the removed bone spur not directly at the elbow (and with him having surgery when he did), there seems to be confidence in his ability to have a normal throwing program this Winter. Obviously 21 homers in 119.1 ip is too much, and his fastball command has to increase, but barring any health set-backs I think his spot in the ’12 rotation should be secure. Agree or disagree?”

Ghiroli: “The “barring any health setbacks” bit says it all right there. You don’t know how Arrieta’s arm to respond to the surgery and until you can start to see him throwing in actual games this spring, I’d put him in Matusz’s boat. He has to earn a rotation spot. While the procedure was pretty minimal, anytime you are removing something from his elbow that he’s had pretty much his entire life, it’s impossible to tell how the ligament will respond (in terms of overextension, possible loss of velocity, etc). I will say that Arrieta is probably the guy with the best makeup of the young arms, so there’s no doubt he will do everything in his power to get back.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Lots to like about Britton’s rookie season, especially with how he responded to the adversity of July. Overall he finished 11-11, with a 4.61 era. In his 154.1 ip, he  allowed 162 hits, 12 homers, 62 bb’s, with 97 k’s. His OPS against was .735, and he had a G/F ratio of 1.24. Like Arrieta, his fastball command needs to improve. He certainly looks the part of a competent ML starter, do you think he has front of a rotation potential?”

Ghiroli: “I do, but I don’t think it’s case where he’s going to leapfrog into that next year, or even in the next two years.  Britton hasn’t made 30 career Major League starts yet and won’t be 24 until December. His stuff was impressive at times, but he lacked crispness down the stretch and struggled to “pitch” when his sinker wasn’t working. Like Arrieta, he seems to relish challenges and responds well to adversity, which bodes well for his sophomore season.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Obtained for Uehara at the end of July, Hunter has met expectations. In ’09, Hunter was 9-6, with 4.10 era. In 112 ip, he allowed 113 hits, 13 homers, 33 bb’s, with 64 k’s. His OPS against was .736, with a G/F ratio of 0.64. In ’10, Hunter was 13-4, with a 3.73 era. In 128 ip, he allowed 125 hits, 21 homers, 33 bb’s, with 68 k’s. His OPS against was .740, with a G/F ratio of 0.74. This year, he dealt with oblique and groin injuries to start the year. With the O’s, Hunter has had 9 starts of over 6.1 ip, and shown decent stuff (average fastball has been 91.9 mph). Ideally, he would probably be in your bullpen, but I’d be comfortable going into ’12 with him part of the rotation. What do you see?”

Ghiroli: “I see a solid backend of the rotation innings-eater in Hunter. I also see a gregarious, highly-competitive guy who doesn’t settle for “good enough”, which is a mindset that needs to be contagious in that clubhouse. I agree, he’d ideally be a better bullpen guy – probably able to draw it up to the mid-90s—but the Orioles don’t have the luxury. Conditioning could be a future problem, however. You saw this season how Hunter was plagued by a groin strain that never really went away- something to keep in mind going forward. But I don’t mind him being part of the 2012 rotation. The Orioles have much bigger problems.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Obviously the O’s have more pressing issues on their hands, but the bullpen receives a lot of attention each year. It is my belief that any discussion of a Major League pen has to begin with the rotation in-front of them. If the rotation is regularly providing consistent innings, and quality starts; the relievers have a chance to slot into normal roles and produce. Before anyone externally is added, I see a number of positive options existing internally for the 2012 bullpen. As of today, I’d probably go with:

Johnson, Gregg, Tillman, Strop, A. Simon, VandenHurk or Bergesen, Patton or Reyes.

Other options: Phillips, Eyre, VandenHurk or Bergesen, Patton or Reyes, Rapada, Jakubauskas, S. Johnson, Pelzer, Bascom etc.

If Klein returns to action in late May / mid-June, I’d like to see him in Baltimore for the 2nd half. Similarly, if Schrader gets healthy I can see him starting ’12 at Bowie. If he has success, he could also be an option for quick promotion.

Do you see any reason for any significant dollar investment by the O’s to their bullpen this off-season?”

Ghiroli: “Yes. After starting pitching, the Orioles need to target relief pitching next.  Looking at your first list, you have Tillman –who has yet to show he can succeed in the Major Leagues in any role – as the third arm on here. I’m not sure if this is in order of reliability, but keep in mind Johnson could be a guy they move to the starting rotation and Gregg was horrible in stretches this season. So, who do you rely on in the late innings? Or the middle innings for that matter? Alfredo Simon has a Major League arm, but needs to show more consistency –and stay out of trouble and in shape – and we haven’t seen enough of Strop yet to really know one way or another what he brings. Of the final four, only Patton has exceeded expectations and as for Klein, to count him in any plans after this season is very premature. They Orioles have to stop promoting players because they have no one else. I’d like for Klein to come back healthy and dominate Minor League hitters and earn a September callup instead. Jason Berken is another name to throw in the mix to earn a spot, and  you could probably group him with the last few names on that list.  I don’t agree with throwing substantial money at a closer-type again, especially since I’d prefer to use Johnson in that role, but the Orioles need to add at least one later-innings arm and sign a wealth of other arms to camp. There needs to much more competition than there was this spring. If they are going to be competitive in the AL East, they can’t have a bullpen with more than four of those guys.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Reimold turns 28 next Month, and has had just 741 ab’s in the Majors. In some ways he remains a bit of an unknown. In other ways you know he has power to all fields, is willing to take a walk, will hustle, and is strong athletically. As ’11 ends, Reimold finished with  .781 OPS, and 26 xbh’s in 267 ab’s. In LF, his UZR / 150 is positive. Even if you believe Reimold to be a defensive liability, with the O’s unlikely to offer Scott arbitration, and Guerrero not returning; there will be an opening at DH. Looking at this with late September eyes, do you expect Reimold to be in the O’s everyday 2012 lineup?”

Ghiroli: “I agree with you that Reimold is a bit of a wild card. I do think he is a defensive liability, but his hustle and power is intriguing enough that he will get a long look this spring.  I wouldn’t count out a scenario where the O’s try to bring back Scott for less money, which would give them another option in the OF/DH role and they have been impressed with some of the skills Matt Angle can bring as a potential fourth outfielder/utility guy.

With all that being said, and with it being impossible to take into account any offseason acquisitions, it looks right now to be Reimold’s job to lose.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Danny Knobler of CBS Sports wrote earlier this year that the O’s might be targeting Prince Fielder. (http://danny-knobler.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/8590096/29723768) ESPN’s Jim Bowden wrote that Baltimore could make the most sense. SI’s Jon Heyman wrote (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201…?sct=mlb_wr_a1) that the average predicted contract for Fielder between himself, two Agents, and two GM’s was 6yrs $145M. Heyman has also written that Baltimore could make the most sense for the slugging 1^st baseman. Knobler’s CBS colleague Scott Miller told BSL that 6 years, $145M would be solid for Baltimore. Dan Szymborski from ESPN and Baseball Think Factory told us he expects Fielder to sign something in the neighborhood of 6yrs $140M. Bob Nightengale told us Fielder will get at-least $190M over 8 years.  Fielder turned 27 on May 9th and he has a .925 OPS for his career. The O’s offered Teixeira 7 years $145M two winters ago. Where do you see Fielder signing, and what type of contract do you ultimately see him receiving? What is the max contract you would advocate the O’s offering?”

Ghiroli: “I think when all is said and done Fielder’s deal will be similar to what Teixeira’s was, maybe a little closer to the $150M range. Whether the Orioles are willing to make that kind of long-term financial commitment, and outbid everyone else, is another story.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In a world where the O’s are willing to make the financial commitment that would be necessary to procure either Fielder or Yu Darvish, which player makes more sense for the Birds? In this hypothetical, let’s say to obtain Darvish it would take a $35M posting fee, and a 5 year, $50M contract.”

Ghiroli: “Like I’ve said, the Orioles need starting pitching first and foremost. Relief pitching I’d put second on the list and then the positional holes. So, that would put Darvish as a better bet than Fielder, although –and I know we are operating in a fantasy world with this question – it would be a painful overpay in both cases.  If the Orioles shore up their starting rotation, and really I’d like to see them add two legitimate starters to what they have now, having Mark Reynolds or Michael Cuddyer at your corner infield spot isn’t the end of the world. You saw the last month of the season what even marginally acceptable starting pitching (5 or 6 innings) did for that team. It’s a mentality, and it’s a psyche- there is no one more important in your entire organization than your five starting pitchers.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In their organizational reviews before this season, Keith Law / ESPN ranked the O’s 24th overall, and Baseball America ranked the O’s 21st. After the signings of Bundy, Esposito, and Delmonico, I gave my review of the system (https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=2740) and that it was my sense that the O’s will have improved towards the middle of the pack when the 3^rd party analysts do their system rankings this Winter. What are your impressions of the system?”

Ghiroli: “Getting those top three guys was key for a system that is badly in need of top tier talent. You add in Machado and Schoop and start to see some light for a farm system that won’t provide any help to the big league club anytime soon.  Pitching in the upper levels continues to be an issue, although the Orioles taking some college arms in their top 10 could help fill in the sparse rotations. I agree that the Orioles should move up some in rankings, although middle of the pack –which would be around 15^th or 16^th seems like quite a jump. I’d hedge my bets more in the 18 or 19 range in terms of rankings. They are far from the only time investing in the Draft, and they certainly have shown an erratic track record in developing the top tier talent they do get. I really liked the Delmonico signing and he’s already impressing in instructional league. But there’s still a long ways to go if they are going to build through the Draft.”