O’s Q&A with M.Healey, Baseball Digest, P.Schiller, Baseball Reflections, & B.Warne, FanGraphs

For the Baltimore Orioles, the 2011 season has officially ended, and the immediate focus turns to the off-season. As such, Baltimore Sports and Life has reached out to a few of National Analysts for their thoughts on the O’s.

Those interviewed were:

Mark Healey, Baseball Digest
http://www.baseballdigest.com/
Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/BaseballDigest9

Peter Schiller, Baseball Reflections
http://baseballreflections.com/
Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/BbalReflections

&

Brandon Warne, FanGraphs
http://www.fangraphs.com/
http://www.brandonwarne.com/
Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/brandonwarne52

Baltimore Sport and Life thanks each of these writers for taking the time to contribute.

Baltimore Sports and Life: “While rumors persist that Orioles Majority Owner Peter Angelos is attempting to retain President of Baseball Operations Andy MacPhail, most people anticipate that Mr. MacPhail will announce his departure from the organization as early as today.

On June 24^th, Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun reported that current MLB Network commentator and former GM John Hart is the name he had heard the most often as a potential replacement for MacPhail. On August 19^th, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweeted that the O’s were a possibility for the Yankees’ Brian Cashman. On September 7^th, you stated on Fox Sports that Scouts were talking about Florida’s Asst. GM Dan Jennings, or Toronto’s Asst. GM Tony LaCava as options for Baltimore.

If MacPhail definitively does not return, some of the candidates I would like to see considered are:

Paul DePodesta, Mets Vice President of Player Development & Scouting
Josh Byrnes, Padres Vice President of Baseball Operations
John Coppolella, Braves Director of Baseball Administration
Bob Miller, Reds Vice President and Assistant General Manager
Rich Hahn, White Sox Vice President and Assistant General Manager
Allard Baird, Red Sox Vice President Player Personnel
Charley Kerfeld, Phillies Special Assistant to the General Manager
Logan White, Dodgers Assistant General Manager / Director of Amat. & Intl. Scouting (Former O’s West Coast Supervisor)
Ben Cherington, Red Sox Vice President of Player Personnel
Gord Ash, Brewers Vice President and Assistant General Manager
Tom McNamara, Mariners Director of Amateur Scouting
RJ Harrison, Rays Director of Amateur Scouting
Gerry Hunsicker, Rays Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations
Kim Ng, Major League Baseball Vice President of Baseball Operations
Tyrone Brooks, Pirates Director of Baseball Operations (Maryland native)
Amiel Sawdaye, Red Sox Director of Amateur Scouting (Baltimore native)
AJ Preller, Rangers Senior Director of Player Personnel

I have personally spoken to four very qualified Executives, who would be interested in the job, but will not necessarily even inform the O’s of their interest. Should MacPhail leave, who do you believe is the favorite, and who would be your personal choice?”

Healey: “In my opinion, no first-year GM is going to be able to succeed with a hands-on owner like Angelos and a high profile skipper like Buck. However, Logan White could do it. That would be a great fit.  However, given the extent of the work at hand, I think a guy lke Gerry Hunsicker would be my choice, Whether he not he wants to be a full-time GM again is anyone’s guess.”

Schiller: “I’d like to see them go with either Kim Ng, Major League Baseball Vice President of Baseball Operations, Paul DePodesta, Mets Vice President of Player Development & Scouting or Josh Byrnes, Padres Vice President of Baseball Operations.”

Warne: “I think it’s safe to say that Hart or Cashman would be an ideal fit for the job, but I don’t know how serious either would be about taking over the club. My understanding is that Hart is still employed in some sense of the word with the Rangers until 2013, so I don’t know if that will hamper his ability to make a move. Similarly, I don’t know that Cashman is looking to move on from the Yankees, but with his contract up at season’s end, anything is possible.

I think if I were to select an executive to run this franchise going forward, Kim Ng would be near the forefront of my short list. Not only would the waves of hiring a female GM be good from a PR standpoint, but as someone who knows the ins and outs of the game from working in the major leagues for 20-plus years, she’s aptly equipped to take over a club that quite frankly could use a GM’s stamp on it. There are other very good names on that list – including former GMs DePodesta and Byrnes – whom I might consider, but if I’m the one making the final call, it’s Ng for me.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “There is lots of talk in Baltimore about the influence Showalter will have on the hiring of a new General Manager. Does it make sense to you for a subordinate to have significant influence on the hiring of his boss? Do you give any credence to the rumors of Showalter ascending to the GM position, with Randolph becoming the Manager?”

Healey: “Anything’s possible with Peter Angelos, but I don’t think Buck is ready just yet to “retire”.”

Schiller: “None what-so-ever! Why would a team who has had their record over the last 14 years go with a GM without front office experience?”

Warne: “To be honest, I’d have to know how long Showalter plans on sticking around. Ideally, the GM’s tenure would exceed that which is expected of Showalter, and thus I’d expect to have most of the say in the hiring if I were Peter Angelos. I know little of Showalter’s future aspirations, but I don’t know of a significant precedence there either, at least when it comes to a manager ascending to such a highly ranking executive position.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Would you agree with the premise that it would behoove the O’s to interview as many qualified external candidates as possible, to garner an understanding of the philosophies of those individuals and an understanding of what has made their respective organizations successful?”

Healey: “No.  Screen them, yes, but don’t elongate the process. Owners like Angelos aren’t equipped to determine who the best GMs are, so the more candidates, the more confusing the choice becomes.”

Schiller: “Yes, but at the same time, they need to make that decision as soon as possible so that they can start the free agent season on the right foot & not miss a beat this off-season!”

Warne: “To be blunt, absolutely.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In a Baseball America poll (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/best-tools/2011/2612213.html) of Major League Managers, Adam Jones was ranked as the 2^nd best defensive CF in the American League. On the other-side you have the most advanced defensive metrics which state Jones is a below average CF. I tend to believe that the truth lies between those two extremes. Jones currently has a Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) of .338, and his Isolated Power (ISO) is .182. For the 2^nd consecutive year, he has played in 149+ games. For the 3^rd consecutive year his OPS falls within the range of .767 to .792. He finished the year with 25 homers, and 26 doubles. Jones is a Free Agent after the 2013 season. By Opening Day 2012, do you think the O’s need to have either extended him or traded him? If you would like to see him extended, what type of contract do you think would be fair?”

Healey: “I think that when you have a young player with Jones’ kind of ability, you keep him. The idea is to win games. You do that by locking up your homegrown talent. I know Jones came from the Seattle organization, but you get the point.  If Peter Angelos want to build a team that competes every year, he has to make some hard decisons. But extending Jones isn’t one of them. He’s worth what Angelos is willing to pay him. I’m not an owner, agent or player, so I don’t care what a team decides to pay a certain player. I judge organizations by how many games they win, not who saved the most money, or got the “most value”.”

Schiller: “They should extend him, but the market at the time of the extension would dictate what he would earn per year. Right now & at his age, you may get away with a $5-7 million dollar per year offer extending into his first year or so of free agency & go from there. Look at what Boston did with guys like Pedroia, Youkilis & Lester as a point of reference.”

Warne: “As long as there are no red flags in the minds of the Orioles front office regarding Jones in the future, I’d definitely consider locking him up this offseason. If we’ve learned anything in recent history – let’s take Joe Mauer for instance – it’s not always a good idea to wait until the last minute to lock a guy up. The Twins had the opportunity to lock Mauer up after a good, but certainly not world-beating 2008 season. Instead, the team signed him after one of the greatest seasons ever by a catcher, and may pay dearly for it down the road when he’s relegated to DH or 1B duties on a daily basis.

With that said, if the club isn’t sold on Jones’ attitude or work ethic, the time may be to sell now. Keep an eye on the B.J. Upton situation, because that may dictate what the market value is for centerfielders. If it’s high, it may be a good time to deal Jones for a king’s ransom, especially if the Orioles view the next few years as buildup years for contention.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “If the O’s are ever going to be competitive in the near term, their young pitching has to produce. Matusz was extremely strong over his last 10 starts of 2010, and abysmal over his 12 outings here in 2011. Like Jones’s defense, I think the truth about Matusz is probably somewhere in the middle, but he absolutely needs to earn his spot next Spring.

In 2011, Arrieta saw improvement in his K/9, Line Drive %, Ground Ball %, and First Strike % numbers. With the removed bone spur not directly at the elbow (and with him having surgery when he did), there seems to be confidence in his ability to have a normal throwing program this Winter. Obviously 21 homers in 119.1 ip is too much, and his fastball command has to increase.

There has been a lot to like about Britton’s rookie season, especially with how he responded to the adversity of July. Overall he finished 11-11, with a 4.61 era. In his 154.1 ip, he allowed 162 hits, 12 homers, 62 bb’s, with 97 k’s. His OPS against was .735, and he had a G/F ratio of 1.24. Like Arrieta, his fastball command needs to improve.

What are your thoughts on this trio?”

Healey: “I like all three pitchers, and firmly believe that Orioles need to find a way to be patient with them.  YToung pitchers will have very fluctuating results their first few years, and developing young pitching is the key to extended competitiveness.”

Schiller: “Unless the O’s get some starting pitching in the offseason (CJ Wilson maybe), but if they come back with these three & Guthrie, then they will absolutely need them all to step it up or they can forget about it! Maybe they can coax Leo Mazzone out of retirement to help move them along?”

Warne: “I’ve had a tough time trusting any Orioles pitching prospects, primarily due to what’s happened with Hayden Penn, Radhames Liz, and Adam Loewen. That’s not fair to this trio, because players are all different and will develop on their own career curves, but at some point there has to be a questioning of the organization’s ideology when it comes to developing starting pitchers. Erik Bedard worked out pretty well, but beyond him, it’s been a while since the Orioles truly churned out a great homegrown starting pitcher.

As for this trio, one feather in its collective cap is that it went through some tough times in 2011, which should only help each of their mental toughness as the years go by. I don’t think that can be understated, even though it doesn’t show up in stat lines at season’s end.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Obtained for Uehara at the end of July, Hunter has met expectations. In ’09, Hunter was 9-6, with 4.10 era. In 112 ip, he allowed 113 hits, 13 homers, 33 bb’s, with 64 k’s. His OPS against was .736, with a G/F ratio of 0.64. In ’10, Hunter was 13-4, with a 3.73 era. In 128 ip, he allowed 125 hits, 21 homers, 33 bb’s, with 68 k’s. His OPS against was .740, with a G/F ratio of 0.74. This year, he dealt with oblique and groin injuries to start the year. With the O’s, Hunter has had 9 starts of over 6.1 ip, and shown decent stuff (average fastball has been 91.9 mph). Ideally, he would probably be in your bullpen, but I’d be comfortable going into ’12 with him part of the rotation. What do you see?”

Healey: “Depends on who else O’s target this offseason. Hunter is an extremely useful pitcher in that he’s not so good you need him in rotation, and durable enouugh to be a useful arm in the pen.”

Schiller: “He wouldn’t be a bad # 4 or 5 starter for them, but they still need an Ace that is better than Guthrie or they’re doomed to continue along the same path as they have been over the past 10+ years.”

Warne: “To me he’s really a fringy, back of the rotation talent that hasn’t struck anyone out anywhere, but can be effective when he keeps the free pass in check. Guys in this mold are valuable when they’re pre-arbitration, but can get unwieldy in the finance department once the courts get involved. A team with Hunter in the back of the rotation won’t be hurt by such a proposition, but he’s not a guy that’s going to start ALDS games either. He’s a good building block, at least for a team in transition.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “With the extension of Hardy, and receiving back Hunter and Davis from Texas (as opposed to the prospects San Diego received for Adams), do you see those as indications that the O’s will not be looking to make wholesale changes and lack commitment to further rebuilding?”

Healey: “I’ll let you know when they pick a new GM. Otherwise, hard to argue otherwise.”

Schiller: “I sure hope not, like I’ve been saying, they need to go out & get an Ace. Also, I don’t see Roberts coming back to the form he was before all of his injuries; therefore, a table setter for the leadoff  position in their line-up is desperately needed still. They may also look to shore up the closer’s role unless they plan on sticking with Gregg (which might not be the best idea).”

Warne: “I think it just came down to making good deals in each of the situations. Uehara is no spring chicken, and to sign Hardy to that contract is an absolute no-brainer. Turning Koji into a pair of guys who are intriguing – if nothing else – makes plenty of sense on a team that can certainly afford some low-risk, high-reward flyers. Hardy’s deal works out perfectly for the Orioles, simply because I can’t believe he wouldn’t have gotten around $10 million/year on the free market. I was scoffed at for suggesting that early in the season, but 30 home runs, a solid reputation defensively, and a shallow shortstop market on the whole (also driven up by the demands of Reyes-Rollins) should have only helped Hardy’s case. But, to Hardy’s credit, he’s battled some injuries, so when teams start waving a good chunk of cash in your face, you have to leverage your options. It’s a good fit, and if Machado develops quickly, Hardy won’t be hard to move.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Reimold turns 28 next Month, and has had just 741 ab’s in the Majors. In some ways he remains a bit of an unknown. In other ways you know he has power to all fields, is willing to take a walk, will hustle, and is strong athletically. As ’11 ends, Reimold had a .781 OPS, and 26 xbh’s in 267 ab’s. In LF, his UZR / 150 is positive. Even if you believe Reimold to be a defensive liability, with the O’s unlikely to offer Scott arbitration, and Guerrero not returning; there will be an opening at DH. Looking at this with late September eyes, do you expect Reimold to be in the O’s everyday 2012 lineup?”

Healey: “Yes I do. And he should be.”

Schiller: “That would depend on what they do to fill in the other positions I’ve already mentioned. If they have spent a lot on those positions & Reimold is still a cost effective option, it might be a good fit for them to see how he does with more exposure to see if other teams exploit his weaknesses or see if he can improve upon what we’ve seen in his short stint in 2011.”

Warne: “There’s no reason not to find out what you have with Reimold. Realistically, this isn’t a club that’ll be favored to contend in the East in 2012. So, when a club has talented yet mercurial youngsters, it behooves the O’s to find out exactly what it has in tow with young Reimold. If, after 500 at bats next season, Nolan’s still scuffling around a .750 OPS and not really showing any projection, it’s easy enough to cut bait or flip him for a better fit. He’s still low enough on the service time totem pole to maneuver him around a little bit.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Prior to any external additions, the O’s likely 2012 roster currently resembles something like:

Guthrie, Britton, Hunter, Arrieta, Matusz
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Tillman, Simon, Bergesen, Patton

Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Reynolds 3^rd
Wieters C
Davis 1^st
Reimold LF
Fox DH
Andino 2^nd

Roberts, Tatum, Angle, Adams

If you are not going to rebuild further, and you want to make this group of players competitive (i.e. a team you can go into ’12 and believe to be capable of 85 wins) numerous things would have to be accomplished. You would have to obtain a front end starter. You would like to upgrade at 1^st (with Davis being moved to DH). If you can not upgrade at 1^st, the O’s could move Reynolds to 1^st and attempt to obtain another 3^rd baseman. You might want to upgrade at 2nd, but with Roberts having 2yrs and $20M left on his deal, he is not going to walk away from his contract. Andino is also a favorite of Showalter.

We discussed the O’s young arms above, and understand the growth of those internal players means more than any potential player added from the outside. That said, give me a path of external additions (outside of Prince Fielder, or Yu Darvish) that you think are obtainable for Baltimore, and would improve the O’s.

Healey: “They should focus on serviceable, cheap arms and affordable offensive players. Spending big money on one player in this division right now is pretty dumb.”

Schiller: “Some of these I’ve already mentioned, but I’d start with CJ Wilson & Chris Capuano for SPs, then look into Albert Pujols (you didn’t say we couldn’t consider him) at 1B, Kelly Johnson or Brandon Phillips at 2B, Aramis Ramirez at 3B, Josh Willingham, Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore (and maybe moving either him or Jones to LF) or Michael Cuddyer in the OF.”

Warne: “I think taking a look at someone like Carlos Guillen or Johnny Damon to DH could make sense for this O’s club. Damon is a more natural fit atop the order, allowing Hardy to move to the five or six hole where he can maybe drive in a few more runs, and Guillen should come cheaply due to health concerns. If he’s healthy, it could be a good buy-low scenario. It’s going to be important to add a good, professional hitter to this lineup in the DH spot if it can be done so at a reasonable cost, and I think either of those two fits the bill for the Birds.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Danny Knobler of CBS Sports wrote earlier this year that the O’s might be targeting Fielder. (http://danny-knobler.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/8590096/29723768) ESPN’s Jim Bowden wrote that Baltimore could make the most sense. SI’s Jon Heyman wrote (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201…?sct=mlb_wr_a1) that the average predicted contract for Fielder between himself, two Agents, and two GM’s was 6yrs $145M. Heyman has also written that Baltimore could make the most sense for the slugging 1^st baseman. Knobler’s CBS colleague Scott Miller told BSL that 6 years, $145M would be solid for Baltimore. Dan Szymborski from ESPN and Baseball Think Factory told us he expects Fielder to sign something in the neighborhood of 6yrs $140M. Bob Nightengale told us Fielder will get at-least $190M over 8 years.  Fielder turned 27 on May 9th and he has a .925 OPS for his career. The O’s offered Teixeira 7 years $145M two winters ago. Where do you see Fielder signing, and what type of contract do you ultimately see him receiving? What is the max contract you would advocate the O’s offering?”

Healey: “Zero. What difference would Mark Teixeira have made on this year’s club? The same Fielder would make on this club in the next two years. Zero, which is why the contract offer shouldn’t be made.”

Schiller: “Fielder would be a good option for the O’s, but I wouldn’t offer him more than what Gold Glove players like Teixiera & Adrian Gonzales are making. 7 years seems like what it will take, but then again maybe they could go with less money per year & add an 8^th year (taking a chance on his age 36 season). That could win them this big fish!”

Warne: “I’ll cut to the chase: It wouldn’t be an offer that Fielder would consider. Probably something like five years, and maybe $20-22 million a season. I’m not a fan of longer deals than that, especially with a guy who may not age well.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In a world where the O’s are willing to make the financial commitment that would be necessary to procure either Fielder or Yu Darvish, which player makes more sense for the Birds? In this hypothetical, let’s say to obtain Darvish it would take a $35M posting fee, and a 5 year, $50M contract.”

Healey: “Two words; Daisuke Matsuzaka. Neither is a good fit, in my opinion.”

Schiller: “After looking at the success rate of Japanese pitchers in MLB, I’d say the more confident bet would be to get Fielder who is a known MLB commodity. They don’t need a Dice-K on their hands!”

Warne: “I would have to say Fielder, just simply due to the playing every day factor, as well as the fact that he’d truly round out what could be a sneaky good batting order. Based on fielding statistics – which I’ll readily admit aren’t loved by everyone – it would seem to improve this team immensely to get Reynolds in the mix at DH, shift Davis over to third, and have Fielder play first for the O’s. With that said, that’s just baseball in a vacuum. I don’t know that Davis would hold up a full season over at third, nor do I know what it would do to Reynolds psychologically to doff his fielding glove full-time. It’s just a theory.”