Ozzie Newsome: A Recent Review

Ozzie Newsome is a beloved figure in Baltimore, perhaps to the point that his missteps are glossed over by fans and analysts alike. Yet the Baltimore Ravens are in dire straights, and their venerable general manager should not be above the fray. Rather, his missteps should be put firmly in focus as the Ravens try to recover from what will almost certainly be the worst season of the John Harbaugh era. 

Clearly Ozzie has made some mistakes. Every GM does. But the bad decisions have piled up in recent years, resulting in a barren receiving corps and a struggling secondary. Where did he go wrong? And more importantly, are Ozzie’s mistakes exceptions to his generally excellent rule, or are they indicators of a larger problem? Let’s take a look.

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Failure to build a competent receiving corps

Want to see a depressing list? Take a look at this group of receivers, and the players Ozzie Newsome drafted above them.

 

Each of these receivers has shown immense upside, and further, Ravens’ fans yearned for each of them, especially the local product Stefon Diggs. Yet the Ravens passed on each of these potential Pro Bowlers for (respectively): a cornerback who even in the most optimistic circumstance won’t be ready to contribute for years, a defensive tackle coming off a positive drug test (this is the only pick on this list that the Ravens might have made the right choice), an inside linebacker who has yet to play any role, and a pure run defender who never showed any signs of competence in defending the pass.

I’ve written about the Ravens’ failure to draft a competent receiver before, but the refusal to take promising prospects in the middle rounds is even more egregious. Yes, the Ravens took Breshad Perriman, but as raw as he was, he should never have been expected to become an immediate star. More insurance was needed, and instead, the Ravens went with special teamers. This is a consistent issue, and it seems to be a conscious decision by Ozzie.

As for the lack of a splashy trade or free agent, I don’t blame Ozzie. The lack of cap space caused by unforeseeable circumstances really hurt the Ravens’ ability to be active buyers in the receiver market, as receivers often go for far more than they are worth.

I do like what Ozzie has been doing with the receiving corps during this season. In the absence of proven playmakers, Ozzie is going for speedy upside guys like Chris Givens and Joe Morgan. They may not pan out, but at least they bring upside and a deep element that the offense was sorely missing early in the season.

In sum, don’t blame Ozzie for the lack of splashy moves, but the failure to bring in so many talented young receivers during the draft is all on him. How could he possibly look at a receiving corps featuring Kamar Aiken and Marlon Brown in featured roles and say, “We’re set?” Nabbing any one of the young receivers listed previously would have made a massive impact on the offense this year, and his failure to do so has more to do with his priorities than with bad luck.

Verdict: Troubling trend

Bad Contract Extensions

Time for another depressing list: This time, let’s take a look at the amount of money the Ravens have locked up in underperforming players, or worse, in dead cap space.

Those are bad, and even in the moment, I was critical of a few of them, particularly Ray Rice, Haloti Ngata and Dennis Pitta‘s extensions. Pitta’s extension was too high for an oft-injured tight end with one majorly productive season to his credit. Rice’s was too high and too long for any running back’s second contract, especially someone who had been used as much as Rice (his legal troubles could not be foreseen, so I do not blame Ozzie for that, obviously). And Ngata had four straight years with a cap hit in excess of $10 million, way too high for a guy not known for his pass rushing prowess.

Still, those contracts are not outside the realm of sanity, and in fact, all of them were applauded at the time by most analysts. Pitta, Webb and Monroe have all been injury prone since their extensions, which is just bad luck for the Ravens. And I was very complimentary of Monroe and Webb’s deals, so I cannot say that Ozzie should have foreseen these issues.

Especially with regards to Pitta, just chalk most of these failures up to bad luck. And Ozzie has done a great job on some contract extensions. Jimmy Smith may be underperforming this year, but his $41,1 million deal is a steal even for an average starting cornerback in today’s NFL.

All in all, don’t blame Ozzie. Bad luck, both on and off the field, had more to do with those horrid extensions than anything the Ravens’ brass did.

Verdict: Bad luck

No Young Pass Rushers

Paul Kruger was 27 when his rookie deal expired. Fresh off a nine sack campaign, the Ravens elected to let him go via free agency, and the Cleveland Browns scooped him up. He had quality 2013 and 2014 campaigns before struggling this year. Pernell McPhee is just 26 years old, but the Ravens also let him go via free agency. McPhee is having a tremendous year for the Chicago Bears, where he has five sacks in seven games.

Though I led with those examples, I don’t necessarily blame Ozzie Newsome for the failure to retain those two young pass rushers. Again, a tight salary cap situation kept the Ravens’ budget in check, and both were one-year wonders. So at least on that front, Ozzie is off the hook.

But look at the draft, and the story is different. Ozzie has consistently neglected to add young pass rushers, instead adding run defenders at every turn. The last true pass rusher the Ravens drafted was Sergio Kindle in 2010. That McPhee developed into a quality pass rusher doesn’t change the fact that the Ravens have neglected their edge rush in the draft, and they have paid dearly for it this season. With no young depth (no Courtney Upshaw and Za’Darius Smith do not count as pass rushing depth) an injury to Suggs or Dumervil was going to be catastrophic. Sure enough, Suggs got hurt, and now the Ravens have to send five or six rushers per play just to generate pressure. That’s not uncommon in the NFL, but after owning the best four-man rush in the NFL last year, it hurts.

Truly dynamic pass rushers are hard to find, especially when the Ravens refuse to draft any. Za’Darius Smith has shown more upside than expected, but even so, the Ravens need to get faster and more explosive on the edge, and they need to do it this draft. Because Ozzie has succeeded in drafting edge rushers in the past, I think he can do it again. But he needs to make it a priority, especially with Suggs aging and coming off a torn achilles.

Verdict: Troubling trend

All in all, Ozzie Newsome has had a bad couple of years. He has overvalued defending the run at the expense of defending the pass, and he has undervalued getting speedy weapons in the draft. Still, he remains one of the best GMs in the NFL. This is the guy that got Elvis Dumervil for pennies on the dollar. This is the guy that drafted the best nose tackle in the NFL in the third round. Ozzie is still one of the best at identifying talent. He has had some bad luck in recent years, resulting in an unbalanced roster full of talented big uglies along both lines, but with no skill position players to speak of.

But Ozzie does learn from his mistakes, and when an issue presents itself, he is usually proactive in trying to fix it. He rebuilt the offensive line in the 2014 offseason brilliantly, and now he needs to fix both the secondary and the receiving corps. With over $20 million in dead cap coming off the books, I’m excited to see what he can do.