Charles Barkley’s favorite conference, the Pac 12, is a league that produces a lot of talent and has some teams that could do some damage come March. Last season, the conference sent a record (for the conference) 7 teams to the NCAA tourney. Only one made it past the round of 32 and that team was the Oregon Ducks, the preseason favorite to win the conference and one of the teams many believe could challenge for a title. The league could have 5 or more first round picks, including 3 top 10 picks, in the upcoming draft. They have 3 teams in the top 16 in the preseason poll and 3 other teams receiving votes, led by California. They have 3 teams in the top 21 in the Kenpom rankings and 10 teams in the top 80. There is some depth in this league this year but overall, its pretty top heavy with Oregon, Arizona and UCLA expected to be the 3 teams fighting for the Pac 12 title.
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As I said, the preseason favorite to win the conference is the Oregon Ducks. Led by potential Conference POY, as well as a legit National Player of the Year candidate, Dillon Brooks. The junior led the team in scoring last year, averaging just less than 17 ppg. He led Oregon to an elite 8 appearance, which including overwhelming Duke in the S16. Oregon showed excellent speed and athleticism in that game and the Blue Devils just couldn’t handle it. From that team, they return 5 of their top 7 scorers, 4 of their top 5 rebounders and their top 2 assist men. They start the year 6th in the Kenpom preseason rankings. They are a good shooting team that is efficient on offense and have the athleticism and strength to play solid defense. With 9 upper classmen on its roster, as well as 1 4 star freshmen, this team has a lot of experience and that should pay off for them as the season goes along. This a team that should be in the Top 10 for much, if not all, the year and has a chance to win a national title.
Not far behind Oregon are the Arizona Wildcats. A preseason top 10 team themselves that boasts a lot of talent and upside. Arizona will be a very young team. Last year, the senior laden Wildcats weren’t all that great and lost early in the tournament to Wichita State. This year, they brought in 3 5 star recruits and Ray Smith, who redshirted last year due to a torn up knee, will also be making his debut. Smith is a very talented player and if his knees can stay in tact, he has a chance to be an early pick in the upcoming draft. The freshmen are led by Lauri Markkanen, a 7’ center from Finland. He is viewed by many as a likely first round pick in the draft and my guess is that he will end up in the lottery if he shows the skill set many believe he has. In fact, all of the incoming Freshmen have first round talent. They also return sophomore SG, Allonzo Trier. He was third on the teams in PPG last year, while shooting almost 47% from the field and 36% from 3. He will be the “veteran” in their starting lineup. A team this young could struggle early but Arizona set up their schedule so it was softer in the beginning of the year because Coach Sean Miller, wanted his young players to get into the flow of things easier. This is a team with a huge ceiling. They could flame out early because of the lack of experience but they are a team littered with NBA prospects and that is a dangerous team in March, no matter how old they are. You can argue that this team has more upside and it is likely more talented than Oregon is but the lack of experience, especially in big game situations, is what separates the 2 teams for now.
The next team is UCLA. In the preseason rankings, UCLA is on the next tier in the conference. Where Arizona and Oregon are in the top 10, UCLA is 16th in the preseason poll and 21st in Kenpom. They return 4 of their top 5 scorers from last year, led by Isaac Hamilton and Bryce Alford. Both of those players are seniors and one of the other returning top scorers, Thomas Welsh, is a junior. They also brought in a very good recruiting class, which was led by 6’6” point guard, Lonzo Ball, a player many believe could be a Top 10 pick in the upcoming NBA draft. Joining Ball is another 5 star prospect, who was ranked (by ESPN) as the third best PF, TJ Leaf. Rounding out the class was 4 star recruit, Ike Anigbogu, a 6’10” 250lb center. UCLA boasts a team with good talent returning, veteran leadership and a very good recruiting class. Many are predicting them to finish behind Arizona but I think UCLA is the better bet here. Yes, Arizona has more talent but they are young and inexperienced. Come tourney time, that inexperience may not exist for Arizona but in Pac 12 play, especially early on, they could see themselves lose some games they shouldn’t because of that youth. Since I think that is a good possibility, I see UCLA with the better conference record. One thing is for sure, watching the top of this conference should be fun this year and come tournament time, all 3 of these teams could make deep runs into the tournament.
This isn’t just a 3-team conference though. The Cal Bears, led by Conference and National POY candidate (as well as likely Top 10 pick) , Ivan Raab, are a potentially dangerous team. They lost a lot off of last year’s team but Raab is a very skilled player who could help carry this team. His numbers figure to jump up and Jabari Bird, who was 5th on the team in scoring last year, also figures to be a key contributor. In addition to California, watch out for Washington, if for no other reason than to see potential Freshman of the Year and potential #1 pick, Markelle Fultz. Fultz is a preseason First Team All American and while the team around him isn’t great, he may be able to do what Ben Simmons couldn’t do last year…elevate an average team and make them a lot better. You can also never count out Utah. They play a hard-nosed game and usually are an excellent defensive team. Colorado also figures to be in the mix for an NCAA birth. They return 4 of their top 6 scorers and have a lot of experience. They were an 8 seed in the tournament last year and figure to be fighting for a spot in the same area again. USC also figures to be a fun team to watch. Coach Andy Enfield, founder of Dunk City, brings back potential First Round pick Bennie Boatwright, as well as Jordan McLaughlin, who led the team in scoring last year. USC also added two 4 star recruits who could contribute early on for them. This team has NCAA tourney upside as well.
All in all, I see this as a potential 6 bid league that has 3 teams that could do legit damage in March. It should be a fun conference to watch, as it is loaded with NBA talent and 3 potentially Top 10 teams. The bottom of the league is weak and that will likely drag down some of the rankings because the middle, while potentially decent, isn’t all that strong on paper but don’t be fooled by that come March.
Projected standings:
1) Oregon
2) UCLA
3) Arizona
4) California
5) Colorado
6) USC
7) Washington
8) Utah
9) Arizona St
10) Stanford
11) Oregon St
12) Washington St
First team All Pac 12:
Dillon Brooks- Oregon (CPOY)
Ivan Raab- California
Markelle Fultz- Washington
Isaac Hamilton- UCLA
Lonzo Ball- UCLA
Freshman of the Year:
Markelle Fultz
Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight