Here we are, twelve weeks in. If you want a refresher on the models used in this post, be sure to go to the original post this year. It can be found here.
Expected Wins by the Baltimore Orioles using Five Projections (6/25/2013)
| mJS | PWE | mBP | Parcells | fWAR | |
| 4/1/2013 | 72.6 | 81.0 | 74.9 | 81.0 | 81.0 |
| 4/8/2013 | 73.5 | 97.1 | 75.3 | 81.0 | 115.9 |
| 4/15/2013 | 73.9 | 88.0 | 76.1 | 81.0 | 94.5 |
| 4/22/2013 | 75.3 | 90.4 | 77.6 | 90.0 | 86.2 |
| 4/29/2013 | 77.1 | 98.0 | 79.4 | 97.2 | 90.3 |
| 5/6/2013 | 78.0 | 95.5 | 80.9 | 96.2 | 87.7 |
| 5/13/2013 | 79.3 | 95.9 | 82.0 | 98.1 | 91.1 |
| 6/25/2013 | 80.8 | 85.8 | 83.2 | 88.4 | 88.1 |
It has been over a month since I last reviewed the different models. The models using preseason projection models (mJS and BP) are slowly moving upward in the 80 wins territory while the other models as rolling backwards. They all appear to be converging into the mid 80s. One thing to note that since May 13th, the Orioles’ pitching has been near replacement level having only earned 0.2 fWAR. Their past month and a half has been fully on the shoulders of the team’s bats.
Baseball Prospectus‘ playoff probability of the team continues to increase: 5% -> 6.5% ->7.9% -> 11% -> 16.4% -> 22.9% -> 28.1% -> 30.9%.
AL Final Standings by fWAR (6/25/2013)
| Team | Wins | fWAR | Final | Rank |
| Tigers | 42 | 29.5 | 102.9 | Central |
| Red Sox | 45 | 23.9 | 95.4 | East |
| Rangers | 44 | 21.9 | 94.1 | West |
| Athletics | 44 | 18.9 | 89.0 | WC1 |
| Orioles | 42 | 19.1 | 88.1 | WC2 |
| Rays | 40 | 20.7 | 87.8 | |
| Yankees | 41 | 14.7 | 83.6 | |
| Indians | 39 | 15.4 | 82.4 | |
| Blue Jays | 38 | 13.8 | 79.6 | |
| Royals | 35 | 14 | 78.2 | |
| Angels | 33 | 16 | 76.4 | |
| Twins | 34 | 11.8 | 75.2 | |
| ChiSox | 31 | 11.6 | 71.3 | |
| Mariners | 34 | 9.5 | 69.5 | |
| Astros | 29 | 2.8 | 57.1 |
The Orioles have gotten back into the playoff picture with fWAR modeling.
NL Final Standings by fWAR (6/25/2013)
| Team | Wins | fWAR | Final | Rank |
| Cardinals | 47 | 22.3 | 97.5 | Central |
| Reds | 45 | 20.5 | 92.6 | WC1 |
| Pirates | 46 | 16 | 89.4 | WC2 |
| Braves | 44 | 18.3 | 89.2 | East |
| Rockies | 39 | 22.3 | 88.6 | West |
| Dbacks | 41 | 16.7 | 85.9 | |
| Giants | 38 | 18.8 | 84.5 | |
| Padres | 39 | 11.5 | 76.7 | |
| Nationals | 37 | 10.9 | 75.2 | |
| Cubs | 31 | 15 | 74.7 | |
| Dodgers | 33 | 13.4 | 74.1 | |
| Phillies | 36 | 10.6 | 72.7 | |
| Mets | 30 | 11.2 | 70.4 | |
| Brewers | 31 | 10.3 | 69.1 | |
| Marlins | 25 | 4.8 | 56.1 |
Jon Shepherd founded the Baltimore Orioles blog Camden Depot in 2007. In addition to Baltimore Orioles analysis, the blog also focuses on qualitative and quantitative approaches to assessing baseball in general as well as providing mainstream reviews and commentary on substances alleged to performance enhancing. Dr. Shepherd’s writing has been featured on ESPN, and his blog has been part of the ESPN Sweetspot Network since May 2011. He has made radio and podcast appearances for Orioles’ centered programs.