For all 2018 competitive reasons, the Orioles’ season is over. They’ve been mathematically eliminated, the eulogy has been written, 2018 is dead and buried at Camden Yards. At this points, there are little stakes for the team beyond the young players establishing themselves going forward, and of course the potential for the top draft pick in the 2019 draft. Now, the #1 pick is an odd stake, as it is only obtained by losing, an act that would seem counterproductive for a young team.
Despite this, top picks are one of the lifebloods of any rebuilding team. The Cubs, Astros, Nationals, and many of the other successful teams of the past few years are built around young players drafted at the top of the draft—or signed internationally, but that’s another problem for another day. The Orioles are currently 6.5 games ahead (behind?) of the Royals for the top pick, so it’s likely that the top pick in 2019 will have a home in Baltimore.
Now, this post isn’t to debate the merits of Bobby Witt, Shea Langeliers, or Adley Rutschman. That’s for a later day, after we’ve had a chance to see what they do as the draft approaches. The Orioles organization is devoid enough of talent that they need to take the best player, this is without question. Rather, now is the time to take a 10,000 foot view of what pitchers and hitters do at the top of the draft.
Many articles have been written about the value of draft picks. I wrote one myself several years ago. For this article, I’m going to concentrate on the top-3 picks from the 2006-2015 drafts. Why top three picks? Because in this modern day of signing bonus concerns, there are often cases where teams choose to sign players who they might not have picked had signing bonuses not been a concern. The 2017 draft is an instance of this, where the Twins initially where focusing on Brendan McKay, but then turned to Royce Lewis after McKay’s bonus demands made the team worry. Concentrating on picks 1-3 will allow us to look at a larger sample of players who likely were considered at #1.
Across 142 player seasons of top-3 picks from 2006-2015, there were 32 All-Star seasons, 4 Rookie of the Year Awards, 2 MVPs, and 1 Cy Young. Seven of the 30 players never made the majors, and two more never made any particular mark. So, to count, 30 percent—9 out of the 30—of the top-3 draft picks made no substantial contribution to a major league team. So, if the Orioles are considering three players at #1 next year, chances are one of them would not give the Orioles any sort of return.
13 of the 30 players considered were pitchers. Of these 13 pitchers, 5 never made the MLB. Those who did put up a median of 2.9 Wins Above Replacement (bWAR) per 170 IP according to Baseball Reference. Players in this group include hits such as David Price and Stephen Strasburg, in addition to duds Danny Hultzen—derailed by injury—and Mark Appel.
The 17 remaining players were of course hitters, ranging from Kris Bryant and Bryce Harper to Donovan Tate and Josh Vitters. Only two of these players has failed to make the majors, and Brendan Rodgers should eventually lower that total to only one. Given that the hitters make the majors, they’re expected to put up 2.2 bWAR per 600 PAs.
These hitters come from a variety of positions. There was the Swanson-Bregman-Rodgers three shortstop draft in 2015, first baseman like Eric Hosmer, Pedro Alvarez, and Josh Vitters were drafted high in the mid 2000s—a trend that has mostly died this decade—and outfielders like Harper and Byron Buxton have always been highly valued. Shortstops are the most common position, with 7 of the 17 hitters announced as shortstops. However, the common thread is that all these players were drafted for their hitting potential. Defense may be used to break ties among even hitters, but hitting and hitting potential always comes first and foremost.
Where does this leave us? Pitchers appear to clearly be a riskier proposition, resulting in a higher rate of failure than hitters. However, given that a player reaches the majors, pitchers put a higher WAR per season—defined here as 170 IP or 600 PA—than hitters. There seems to be a tradeoff between the risk of a pitcher burning out in the minors versus a higher expected production per season.
There is more to consider though. Teams at the top of the draft are drafting for ceiling, not floor. Higher ceiling prospects will generally get boosts over safer prospects to a certain extent. When you look at the top hitters drafted in the top three over the past 10 years, you see players like Kris Bryant (5.3 WAR/Season), Carlos Correa (5.6 WAR/Season), and Manny Machado (5.0 WAR/Season). The top pitchers include Stephen Strasburg (3.7 WAR/Season), David Price (3.3 WAR/Season), and Gerrit Cole (2.7 WAR/Season). While pitcher’s have a higher expected production, hitters have a higher ceiling, potentially making them a more attractive prospect at the top of the draft.
None of this is to say that the Orioles should be compelled to take a hitter at #1. David Price was clearly the top guy in 2007. Stephen Strasburg was the top of the draft in 2009. Casey Mize beat out Joey Bart this past June. Really, whatever player separates themselves over the next nine months should be the Orioles’ focus. However, should there be many options under consideration, the front office may well consider that hitters reach the majors at a higher rate and represent a higher ceiling in general than pitchers.
Orioles Analyst
Dr. Stephen Loftus received his Ph.D. in Statistics from Virginia Tech in 2015 and is an Assistant Professor of Mathematical Sciences at Randolph-Macon College. Prior to that, he worked as an Analyst in Baseball Research and Development for the Tampa Bay Rays, focusing on the Amateur Draft. He formerly wrote at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score. As a lifelong fan of the Orioles, he fondly remembers the playoff teams of 1996-97 and prefers to forget constantly impending doom of Jorge Julio, Albert Belle’s contract, and most years between 1998 and 2011.