The Orioles are in the midst of a rebuild and perhaps the first interesting potential cornerstone player who has reached the major league team is Ryan Mountcastle. Mountcastle was picked out of high school in the supplemental portion of the first round of the 2015 MLB draft. It was the pick the Orioles received for losing Nelson Cruz to the Mariners. Mountcastle was picked 11 spots after the Orioles took D.J. Stewart, but while Stewart was a college guy, Mountcastle had just completed his high school career in Oviedo, Florida.
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Mountcastle was a shortstop in high school and began his pro career at that position, but after a year or so in the minors it became apparent that he wasn’t going to be able to play shortstop in the pros. The organization moved him to third base in 2017, then first base in 2019 with some time spent in left field as well. I mention all that because it’s a big part of who Mountcastle is as a player, but we’ll come back to that.
Players who get moved down the defensive spectrum multiple times aren’t usually ones who move quickly through the minors, but Mountcastle bucked that, moving steadily due to his bat. He hit well enough in Rookie Ball to move to Low-A as an 18-year-old. The next year, 2016, he started in A-Ball and put up a .745 OPS with 10 homers. In 2017 he started in High-A and put up an .802 OPS, good enough to get moved up to Double-A for 21 games at the end of the season, and for a spot in the Arizona Fall League. The next year, Mountcastle, now 21, played a full season of 102 games in Double-A Bowie, putting together a nice season with 13 homers, 19 doubles, and an .806 OPS.
All of this was good, but nothing really jumped out at you. Yes he was a former first round pick, but not a high first rounder and while the bat was fine it hadn’t looked special and there was also the defensive issues. Then came his 2019 season in Triple-A. Mountcastle hit 25 homers and 35 doubles while putting up a slash line of .312/.344/.527. That was impressive and showed what Mountcastle can really do for the first time. The defensive issues were still there, but that power and hard contact will play.
And play it did last season. After most of the season at the alternate training site – the sort of catch-all minor league site during COVID – the Orioles called Mountcastle up. While spending most of his time in left field (25 games compared to 10 at first base), Mountcastle hit five homers and five doubles with a slash line of .333/.386/.492. It was just 35 games, but then the season was only 60 so whatever. The point is it was another successful season for Mountcastle.
There are concerns going forward, such as his defense and his relative lack of patience at the plate. However, there are rebuttals for both. First the defense. Yes, he’s not going to win a gold glove, but if he can play left field at a league average level or thereabouts that’s fine. There’s nothing at all wrong with that. Now, if he can’t do that and has to play first base or DH full time then things become even more dependent on his bat.
Second, the lack of patience. There are few players in baseball history who hack at everything and are successful major leaguers, but let’s be clear. That’s not what Mountcastle does. Yes he doesn’t walk a whole lot but he doesn’t strike out a ton either. And he’s shown an ability through his entire career as a pro to make hard contact. Last season according to StatCast, his expected batting average based on batted ball data was in the 71st percentile and he hit the ball harder on average than 65 percent of major leaguers.
If he’s not going to walk he’ll have to continue making hard contact because that’s the only way he’ll be able to get on base. But he’s shown the ability – albeit in a small sample at the major league level – to do that.
The key to Mountcastle will be keeping the batting average up. I know batting average has a bad name in analytic circles nowadays but for Mountcastle it’ll be key. Batting average is effectively an endpoint for how hard the ball gets hit and at what angle. If Mountcastle hits the ball hard enough and on a line or in the air enough, he can be an above average bat in the majors.
Orioles fans should be looking forward to watching Mountcastle this coming season. He’s big, strong, and puts the ball in play and when he does, he hits it hard. That’s a fun combination to see, and especially so from a former first round pick who developed in the team’s minor league system.
Orioles Analyst
Matthew Kory is a Orioles / MLB Analyst for BSL. He has covered baseball professionally for The Athletic, Vice Sports, Sports On Earth, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. He lives in Portland, Oregon with his wife, two boys, and his cats, Mini Squeaks and The President. Co-Host of The Warehouse.