The lockout is over! Done! Kaput! Finished! It’ll never work in this town again! With that ugliness finally behind us, it’s time to get on with the business of baseball’s business, namely the off-season. The off-season will be, by necessity, truncated, shrunken, and chopped into smaller bits. There’s a lot to do before the regular season begins on April 7, for all teams, and especially so for your Baltimore Orioles.
One of the things on the list is going to be listening to trade offers. You see, unless I’ve missed the Carlos Correa signing, the Orioles aren’t projected to do a whole lot better than they did last season. With the front office clearly building a team for the future from the inside, this year’s roster isn’t likely to make a dent in the toughest division in baseball. That doesn’t mean it’s time to tear everything down. Partly that’s because they already kinda did that, but mostly that’s because the team is building towards something. That something isn’t quite here yet though, and players who won’t be around for contractual or age-related reasons when that something arrives are those who the front office may think about trading. And (one final “and”) what better time to make trades than right now!
There are a few names who might peak other teams’ interests in the whirlwind that figures to be the next three weeks of the off-season. Those names are John Means, Anthony Santander, Cole Sulser, and Trey Mancini.
Let’s start with Mancini. When the news of the new CBA broke, one of the first bits of news that had been suspected for a while became official, namely the DH is now universal. That means there are all of a sudden 15 teams that have a roster spot to fill. Now, all those teams won’t necessarily fill their spank’n new DH slot with some version of Miguel Cabrera or JD Martinez, but they could! That option is open. This has the effect of marking players like Cabrera, Martinez, and maybe other slightly defense-optional hitter types more valuable as the market for them has just doubled. Of course, I’m talking about Trey Mancini.
Mancini returned from defeating cancer last season and had a fantastic season for someone who just beat cancer. It was truly an inspiring story. Now, with an admittedly odd but still full off-season behind him, Mancini should be ready to hit the ground running. He’s a better hitter than he showed last season and that better hitter could have real value on the suddenly expanded trade market.
Some teams that might have interest are, well, just about every team in the National League. And, unlike Cabrera and Martinez, Mancini isn’t the butcher in the field that most DHs are, so you could play him at first or in an outfield corner in a pinch or in case of injury to another player.
What would it take to pry Mancini away? That’s tough to say, but with the newly opened DH market, perhaps more than you might think for a 30 year old with questionable defense coming off a roughly league-average offensive campaign. If Mancini isn’t a part of the Orioles long-term plans, it behooves them to take a look at his market, especially now with the new rules. He’ll be a free agent after this season so unless they’re going to extend him, it would make sense to gauge his market for a trade now as opposed to later during the season.
Beyond Mancini, another player with some trade value is Cole Sulser. Sulser isn’t the greatest of shakes, but he does have a few things going for him. He’s a reliever, and every team needs as many of those as they can get always. He’s coming off a nice season as well. Yes, he’s 32, but most relievers don’t last that long anyway, so the relatively short time left in his career shouldn’t hinder his trade value too much.
Most importantly, if you look at his Baseball Savant page, he put together perhaps a stronger season than you might have thought. Sulser’s expected ERA, expected Batting Average Allowed, expected Slugging Percentage, and Strikeout Percentage were all top notch, ranking in the 80th percentile or slightly higher, and that’s all pretty darn good. He’s not perfect, he does give up some walks and some hard hit balls, but the entire package, especially when you consider how little he’ll be paid this year and next, is a pretty enticing one. He can totally help a contending team.
Relievers don’t typically break the bank in trades, especially when traded during the off-season. The time to deal them is often in the middle of the season closer to the trade deadline when teams are more desperate. Perhaps that’s the smart play. Hold on to Sulser until July when you can get maximum return. That only works though if Sulser has a good first half of the season. If he doesn’t than any hope you had of getting something for him disappears. If you trade him now, you know he has value because teams will see the numbers I just pointed out. Either way, the Orioles should be listening on a potentially valuable reliever.
The most intriguing guy, to me anyway, is John Means. Means is probably the most valuable player on this list. He’s a number three starter on a good team and if you look at what the Detroit Tigers just paid Eduardo Rodriguez, you’ll know that’s something teams will pay up for. Means will be 29 this season so he’s not a young buck, but he doesn’t have a ton of miles on his arm either, as last season was his first full year in the majors. Also, he won’t be a free agent for three more seasons, so getting him for three years has some significant value for teams.
The thing about trading Means is that in three years the Orioles should be good. Right? Right? I mean, good gosh, you’d hope so. When that time comes they’ll need someone to pitch in the middle of their rotation and John Means can be that guy. Trade him and, well, John Means can’t be that guy. So maybe you hold on to Means and he gives the rotation some stability as the rest of the team around him grows and improves. Or maybe the timeline just doesn’t work for the Orioles front office. Maybe they want to build around someone younger, someone who will be around for more of the good part of the Orioles and less of the rebuilding part. Whatever the reason, contrary to dealing relievers at the deadline, the time to deal starters is often during the off-season, when more teams are setting their rotations, so the Orioles should be gauging other teams’ interest in Means right about now.
The final guy on this list is Anthony Santander. Santander does a couple things really well and that’s mostly it. He has a good throwing arm in right field and he’s got real power. That’s it. He doesn’t take a walk and as such he doesn’t get on base very well. That lack of on-base percentage hurts him elsewhere as well, as he’s a free swinger to the point where he doesn’t wait for pitches to drive. The end result is some highlight plays on both sides of the ball, but not enough to offset the lowlights.
Perhaps you’ve gathered that I’m not the biggest Santander fan. To me he seems more like a non-tender candidate than a trade candidate, but sure, if another team will give up assets to Baltimore for him, I’d jump on that yesterday. Because, let’s be honest, it was a nice try. Sometimes players like him work out and you find yourself a diamond in the rough, a star player for free. But that didn’t happen here. If the Orioles can’t do better than Anthony Santander in an outfield corner then I’m not sure what we’re doing here.
Orioles Analyst
Matthew Kory is a Orioles / MLB Analyst for BSL. He has covered baseball professionally for The Athletic, Vice Sports, Sports On Earth, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. He lives in Portland, Oregon with his wife, two boys, and his cats, Mini Squeaks and The President. Co-Host of The Warehouse.