Potential NFL Cap Casualties

Looking over teams with salary cap issues looming next year it’s easy to think the Ravens are in a bad position overall. They rank 23rd of all 32 teams next year heading into the offseason based on their current cap position. Luckily, the Dophins, Rams, Steelers, Chiefs, Niners, Patriots, Cardinals and Saints all rank worse in terms of cap space. Sitting in front of the Ravens are the Cowboys, Texans, Panthers and Redskins.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

There are some interesting names in this group alone that could end up being targets of the Ravens. There are some interesting cuts that could be made of the teams with slightly more space than the Ravens like Andre Johnson (a name I’ve brought up before) who carries a big cap number ($16 mill cap number, with a $7.3 mill savings), but the Texans needs don’t necessarily match up well to free agency and I don’t see them cutting him just yet. Really the Skins and Panthers wouldn’t save much if they made any cuts. The Cowboys salary cap issues are well known and with Bryant a potential tag guy ($12.3 million) they need to clear at least $5 million in space. Henry Melton (not a guy the Ravens would target) and Brandon Carr (more interesting) would need to be a post June 1 cut. These are less common, but if both Murray and Bryant are Cowboys next year Carr would seem to need the designation to save the $8 million in cap space.

Unsurprisingly, the former list of teams, those that are nearly maxed out on cap space are all mostly in competition for at least the wild card, especially if this total group is expanded for next year. Focusing on the Ravens needs of WR, CB and S there were some interesting targets among this group. I’ll review my favorite potential targets in a moment (including Carr), but I’m going to exclude guys that will probably be priced out or don’t fit a need (cap savings for based on the cut after the name): Darrell Revis ($20 mill), Brandon Browner ($5.5), Tamba Hali ($9 mill), Wilford ($8 mill), Ellerbe ($5.6), Mike Wallace ($2.5, mill). 

You’ve probably heard most of the big names, Marques Colston, Larry Fitzgerald, Dwayne Bowe ($5 mill) and all are names that could end up cut and back on the FA market. There are reasonable questions as to each of these guys and what they might command but the first two are both currently 31, 31, 30 respectively. All of their declines have been fairly clear and even Colston who might have been the one wild card of this group has now shown drops in yards, catches, and targets in 3 straight years. All emblematic of guys that strike me as ones that will not end being worth any value for what they’ll command on the market.

But there are a few in this group that could be potentially surprising cuts of which I’ll also include Carr in if he gets cut that could be premium Ravens targets this offseason that have a good chance at being cut. I chose two more obvious names that people may think of Brandon Carr ($8 mill Post June 1) and Vernon Davis ($5 mill) and two guys I tab as a bit more under the radar outside of fans of those teams, Brian Hartline ($3.1), Jerraud Powers ($4 mill).

Carr

Carr’s cap number is ridiculous. No, Romo’s is ridiculous ($27 million?!?), but Carr’s at $12 million is also a bit much to believe. He does nothing as a pre-June 1 cut but as a post June 1 cut he’s a $8 mill savings. That could be hard for the Cowboys to ignore with Claiborne coming behind Carr and his 54th overall PFF CB rating last year.

My bigger concern is much more that Carr will price himself out of the market. He’s only two years removed from a nice little run and he’s 28. His may have saved his job in the Detroit game, but he’s either getting restructured or cut. Bryant is going to take up at least the allotment of Dallas savings, and that leaves Murray available unless Dallas breaks out the tag, which will take up all of their available space on just one guy ($9.5 RB and $12.3 WR). Not to mention starting tackle Free or Parnell is going to need to be resigned potentially as well leaving almost no cap space for Dallas to work with.

Carr is a weird case because he’s Post June 1 status makes it a hard read and if Dallas hold him one more year they can cut him next year and save $6 mill against the cap. I like him, but his name may be more flash than substance at this point. His numbers were down last year but it’s not a growing trend yet which speaks will to the fact he could bounce back and also to the fact he could still see a $6+ mill/year deal on the market which doesn’t strike me as palatable for Baltimore. I only pulled him out here because he fits such a strong need that if we part with Ngata, he just might be the top cut CB on the market if he’s cut (assuming Revis never gets there).

Davis

The Niners are in a really awkward position next year. They’re already $4 million over the projected cap with Crabtree and Iuapati becoming UFAs. Steve Johnson is likely gone or his $6 million price tag against the cap but other than that the Niners are going to need to make a challenging cut somewhere. A. Smith ($9 mill), Willis ($7 mill), Kaep ($5.4 mill) are the only other reasonable cuts but really unlikely given the importance to the team, with Ahmad Brooks right behind him saving $4 million (apparently this number has recently changed, as he’s been de-escalated from based on playing time and results, so his number is going down by about $2.5 million apparently but he could still be cut). Davis is not a lock to get cut because J. Smith, Dawson and Boldin could all retire to open up some space too. But all in all, I think he’s a reasonable target to be cut due to his dropping performance recently and after Brooks de-escalation he’s even more likely to create the most space.

Davis’s performance has also dropped off recently but he was a stud in 2013 where he was rated as a plus block and pass catcher. He thrived at catching the deep ball and was targeted 23 times in 2013 on these passes. In 2013 he had a 2.12 average of yards per route run, in 2014 it was cut to just .71. He could really thrive in this system and would be a complimentary type that could be used to stretch the field from more base sets as opposed to Pitta/Daniels combination has the upside to be a pair of possession receivers at their best. Davis seems to be the right fit for a guy like Flacco and if he can recover from his awful run blocking performance of 2014, he’d fit right in. 

It’s hard to read the market here though. McLoughan could well likely chase Brooks, Gore, and Davis as he drafted them all to SF. But I get the feeling given Davis’s age of 31, he’s not going to get a huge deal and I’d be for bringing him in on a 3 year deal without over committing money. Let’s not forget he went to UMD and Dunbar so perhaps coming home would interest him.

Hartline

Premium buy low guy. I think Hartline is the odd guy out. He was coming off two 1,000 yard seasons and Tannehill just couldn’t find this guy on the field. It’s likely that Brandon Gibson is also cut but I don’t see both guys staying. The Dolphins could cut both guys and save nearly $7 mill in cap space and pursue Cobb a guy Philbin is familiar with. Hartline’s certainly not the short down distance type like a Landry or Cobb but that seems to be Tannehill’s preference anyway. 

It was just two short season ago that Hartline had back to back 1,000 yard season on pretty awful Miami teams. Hartline’s 14.2 Y/R isn’t awful and I think he could fit into the West Coast scheme that Trestman likes to run. Hartline’s 12.2 was a career low but I think that was more Tannehill’s ability to see more than 10 yards down field than anything else. He won’t stretch the field like Torrey Smith and he’s a solid route runner that uses body control well to get open. In 2012 he had the 3rd fewest dropped passes according to PFF of 34 qualifying receives tht year. Hartline will be 28 and coming off a big deal that seems like teams might think he’s really low value and he could get signed to a very Steve Smith kind of deal. 

If he’s cut I think he’s a smart signing and he won’t be needed on a big deal. I’d imagine long-term Wallace is the guy that stays, but I’d stay away from Wallace if he hits the market because he’s going to be more expensive. I think there’s a 65% chance he ends up getting cut. The Dolphins have been rumored to be “big fish” hunting. And it seems like a combination of Wallace/Hartline are going to be available. You can see my preference.

Powers

The Cardinals have a need to create some cap space. Fitz is the guy you hear the most about but Jerraud Powers could be an interesting case. I think he’s a better value than Carr, and I think if either guy hits the market they have to be considered.

Powers will be the third biggest savings if he’s cut by the Cardinals for their team with a $4.35 cap savings. The problem is that he may need to fill in for Cromartie who is a FA but the Cards are so hard against the cap already. Cutting Fitz saves them just the $9 mill they are over and leaves no room for any additions or draft picks. If the Cards think Mathieu (but he wont’ be back until September at the earliest) can slide to NCB, there’s a 50-50 shot he can get cut. 

He’s not a sure tackler, noted for his 9 missed tackles, but he had 14 passes defensed last year and was a solid edge rusher from the nickle spot with 15 disruptions of the passer as well. He had 3 INTs and Arians brought him with him from the Colts since he was known as a “cerebral” player. 

There are $1 to $1.5 mill options at CB and if the Cards go with cutting Powers to save the $3 mill (they’ll likely cut Dockett too) and give the $8 – $9 mill to work with. I’d also say Powers has a 60% chance to be cut as well and would be another nice addition.