Predicting The Final NCAA Tournament Verdict For each of These 10 Bubble Teams

With Selection Sunday, now less than two weeks ago there are a handful of teams across the country eager to determine if they can get a bid into the NCAA Tournament. I deep dove into these ten teams on the bubble, where they stand right now and what they have to do in order to hear their names called on Selection Sunday. Between now and when the bracket is released, there are so many games that a handful of things are guaranteed to change and any team could be bound for a special run during Championship week. These are the conversations that make March the best month of the year as College Basketball takes centerstage in the sporting world.

Florida

Gators fans have been way too used to disappointing seasons since Mike White arrived in Gainesville and that won’t be changing this season. The Gators are currently 18-11 overall and 8-8 in the SEC. Florida has had some moments this season including a win over one of the best teams in the country in Auburn and a buzzer beater over Ohio State in November. As great as those wins are, Florida also lost at home to Texas Southern by 15 points and the squad has not played well since.

In November, the hope for Florida was that Mike White had learned to recruit a different type of player and went after more  veterans in the transfer portal, opposed to the high level recruits he was previously getting. That hasn’t necessarily made as big of an impact as many expected, considering Penn State Transfer Myreon Jones isn’t the same player who led the way for Penn State a season ago. The disturbing thing about Florida, under White watch is that they keep taking steps back each year, opposed to steps forward which is never a good sign. White did a really good job taking advantage of the really good players Billy Donvan left in Gainesville, leading Florida all the way to the Elite 8 in 2017. Since then however, Florida has underachieved relative to their talent and at this point Gators fans rightfully want better.

 Florida has dealt with injuries throughout the season, most importantly to their big man Colin Castelton, who missed 6 games in late January with a shoulder injury.  Florida will finish their season with a huge opportunity hosting Kentucky, however even with a win they will still have some work to do in the SEC Tournament in order to secure a bid.

Tournament Verdict: Out

Indiana

The Hoosiers were finally able to end what was a demoralizing 5 game losing streak, this past week by picking up a pair of wins over Maryland and at Minnesota.What’s unfortunate, is that Indiana started off Big Ten play with a 7-5 mark and no bad losses, but 5 players got suspended before the Northwestern game smoking weed, and the Hoosiers have not been the same team since. Indiana played relatively well in both games, however there was a little bit of a scare against Minnesota, when the Gophers trimmed what was a 25 point Indiana lead, all the way down to 3.

 It is evident that the mindset of these Hoosiers have not changed yet, with Mike Woodson in charge and that is ok. Over the past handful of seasons, Indiana has lost a staggering amount of close games in the most painful fashion possible. Part of the reason why Mike Woodson was able to gain some momentum going into his first year was getting members of last year’s team including Trayce Jackson Davis, Race Thompson, Rob Phinisee, Trey Galloway, Joran Geronimo and others to come back to school. These were the same players that would lose all these close games, and have not been able to change their mindset yet. Two losses that have cost Indiana in particular, were both matchups against Wisconsin, in which the Hoosiers had leads in both and lost.

Playing in the Big Ten Conference does give you a chance for quality wins, however Indiana’s non conference wasn’t particularly strong and their only good wins are over Purdue, Ohio State and Notre Dame. Indiana will end their season with 2 golden opportunities against Rutgers and at Purdue, along with the Big Ten Tournament, where Indiana will likely see another good team on the same floor. With as many as 10 losses, Indiana is going to need more than that to secure an NCAA Tournament bid and Wednesday night’s game against Rutgers could serve as a de facto elimination game.

Tournament Verdict: In

Kansas State

The Wildcats have suffered enough heartbreak over the course of the 2022 season, and that continued into Monday’s 5 point loss to Texas Tech. This loss, might have been the final nail in the coffin for Bruce Weber’s team, that has had some good moments this season but it might not just be enough.

Primarily, very few teams in College Basketball have struggled more with COVID issues than Kansas State. The Wildcats had their last 2 non conference games in the month of December postponed, and they even came close to winning a game at West Virginia with only 7 available scholarship players and an Assistant Coach. Playing in the Big 12 Conference is always going to give you many opportunities for quality wins, but with that being said the past 4 games stretch could haunt Kansas State for a long time. The Wildcats have dropped  games at Oklahoma State and home against Iowa State in addition to the Texas Tech game, to drop their overall record to 14-15 and now 6-11 in the Big 12. Kansas State is now 2-7 in Big 12 conference games decided by 5 points or less. Unfortunately, the Wildcats non conference resume does not have enough to get them into the tournament after a tough Big 12 season unlike Iowa State, who did the opposite during non conference.

By no means is Bruce Weber a bad basketball coach, however there could be a good chance that Kansas State is looking for a change, and heading in a new direction after a disappointing 2022. Weber has followed up a really good 3 year run, in which he made the NCAA Tournament all 3 years, with a lackluster next 3 years and Kansas State fans are expecting better. A move toward a younger candidate to spark some energy into the program, might just be the ideal play going forward.

Tournament Verdict: Out

Michigan

What differentiates Michigan from any other team on this list, is that the Wolverines are trying to get into the NCAA Tournament without their Head Coach Juwan Howard. The 3rd year Michigan Coach, was suspended for taking a swing at Wisconsin Assistant Coach Joe Krabbenhoft and was suspended for the final 5 games of the regular season. Four of those five games for the Wolverines were against NCAA Tournament teams, and Michigan has started off the stretch nicely.

Assistant Coach Phil Martelli has gone 2-1 in Howard’s absence, picking up a pair of victories over Rutgers and Michigan State. Similarly to Rutgers, playing in a league that is currently projected to get eight or nine teams in the tournament, wil give you a lot of chances for quality wins to improve your resume. Unfortunately for Michigan, they were not able to move the needle during the non conference portion of their schedule and need every quality win they can get. Without Howard, there aren’t many other better options for as Assistant Coach to take over than Martelli, who was the Head Coach of St. Joesphs for 24 years, leading them to the Elite 8 in 2004.

For a Michigan team that started the season with high expectations ranked in the Preseason Top 10 following last year’s Elite 8 Appearance in only Juwan Howard’s second year. However, this is a team that lost four pros including Franz Wagner, Isaiah Livers, Chaundee Brown and Mark Smith, who were all very capable of shooting well from the perimeter and that has been missed. Michigan will end their season hosting Iowa and at Ohio State prior to the Big Ten Tournament, and considering their recent surge, just one more win over a quality team should lock Michigan into a tournament bid at worst.

Tournament Verdict: In

North Carolina

The Tar Heels have been one of the more polarizing teams in the bubble conversation, considering their name and overall resume. The Tar Heels recently picked up their first Quadrant 1 win of the season at Virginia Tech, who is not currently projected as an NCAA Tournament team. North Carolina’s only win over a team in the Tournament field right now is over a Michigan team that isn’t a 100% lock.

On the other hand, North Carolina has only suffered one Quadrant 4 or really bad loss coming at home against Pittsburgh on February 16th. Ultimately, while evaluating North Carolina the question becomes what should be valued? As many good wins as possible or not as many bad losses? At the end of the day, despite most thinking the only way North Carolina finds a way into the Tournament is based on name, the Tar Heels are currently ranked #38 in KenPom and #40 in the NET with only one bad loss. More times than not, a team with those qualities will get in whether they deserve it or not. Despite the ACC being as weak as it’s been in the last 50 years as a conference, the metrics don’t necessarily translate that. They could get a North Carolina team that based on the eye test, isn’t always tournament worthy into the big dance. Big picture, Hubert Davis hasn’t done a poor job in his first season, however it has been a disappointing season in Chapel Hill relative to expectations.

One of the more surprising notes on last year’s coaching carousel, was that North Carolina did not have a legitimate coaching search following Roy Williams retirement. Instead, they just went within the Tar Heel family going with Davis, and while Hubert still could be the right guy, North Carolina could have definitely pulled a better name. The Tar Heels are right on the edge of the bubble and an argument can be made either way, but right now they’ll be given the slightest of edges.

Tournament Verdict: In

Oregon

It was a historic past weekend that was in College Basketball, that included each of the top 6 ranked teams in the AP Poll going down for the first time ever on the same day. With that being said, there was one thing that got lost in the shuffle. That was that there was not a team that suffered a more costly loss, than Oregon late night to USC. 

The Ducks were considered to be one of the more polarizing teams in the bubble conversation, with their pair of really good road wins over UCLA and USC. In addition, Dana Altman has been very consistent getting his team to the tournament and doing some serious damage once there. Unfortunately for the Ducks, playing in a weak Pac 12 Conference doesn’t give you as many chances for quality wins against good teams unlike the Big 12, SEC and Big East. That has cost Oregon in a big way, especially after a frustrating early part of the season that included a 30 point loss to BYU, a 28 point loss to Houston and killer losses to below average Pac 12 teams in Stanford and Arizona State. Playing in a weaker league, will give Oregon more chances at bad losses, opposed to good wins and it has cost the Ducks.

Despite the tough start, the hope was that Dana Altman coached teams always take a little time to develop chemistry. Many Oregon teams of the past, including the 2019 Pac 12 Tournament Champion team started 15-12 and only made the big dance because they won the automatic bid. After blowing a last minute lead to USC, this Oregon team will likely have to do the same, however their guard play has been inconsistent and this Ducks team has had too many chances to prove their worth. 

Tournament Verdict: Out

Rutgers

There is not going to be a more polarizing team in the bubble conversation than these Scarlet Knights. Head Coach Steve Pikell has continued to do a phenomenal job building this program, as Rutgers is attempting to make back to back NCAA Tournaments for only the second time in school history and the first time since 1975-1976.

Earlier in the season, that goal did not look very achievable, considering they suffered a number of inexcusable losses. These included losing games to DePaul, UMass and most notably Lafayette at home. In most cases, these losses are so bad that they’ll prevent Rutgers from getting an NCAA Tournament bid. However, Steve Pikell’s team has taken advantage of playing in such a tough league like the Big Ten and the number of chances for quality wins that go along with it. Rutgers has secured wins over Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan at home and a road win at Wisconsin. Rutgers home The Jersey Mike’s Arena, has become one of the most legitimate home court advantages in the entire country, and it has only grown with every big home game they won.

One of the early turning points for Rutgers, was finding a way to beat Purdue in December on a Ron Harper Jr. deep buzzer beater three, which started Rutgers ever growing confidence against the Big Ten’s best. Ultimately, Rutgers does have enough quality wins and playing in the Big Ten won’t mean much terrible losses aside from the non conference slip ups. In theory, this should be the 3rd straight year Rutgers is NCAA Tournament bound, as they were likely to get in the 2020 Tournament that was postponed. There are few other coaches in the country better at building a program than Steve Pikell and Rutgers is reeking the benefits of that.

Tournament Verdict: In

San Diego State

Brian Dutcher’s team earned their biggest win of the season, on Monday Night at Wyoming. The Aztecs handed the Cowboys their first home loss of the season, and more importantly secured an NCAA Tournament bid for San Diego State. The Aztecs are looking at making 3 of the last 4 NCAA Tournaments, since Brian Dutcher took over as Head Coach in 2017. Many will also forget, that San Diego State had a team in position to earn a #1 seed in the 2020 Tournament that was postponed due to COVID-19. Brin Dutcher has done a phenomenal job taking over for Steve Fisher, and has only elevated the program since being named Head Coach.

One of the bigger concerns for this San Diego State team, has been their ability to score the basketball, especially on a consistent basis. The Aztecs are currently ranked #1 across the country in defensive efficiency, but also rank 226th in offensive Efficiency. The Aztecs offense reached a level, where quite frankly not many thought it would be possible on Monday in Lairame. Cal Transfer Matt  Bradley, who has been the Aztecs only key offensive producer, showed up in a big way. Bradley finished with 30 points, while shooting 5/9 from deep, and the Aztecs as a team shot 54% from three in the game. If the Aztecs are ever able to match that offensive performance again, this team will not lose.

After losing key members from each of the last 2 seasons, Matt Mitchell and Jordan Shackel, San Diego State has yet to find a consistent sidekick to go along with Bradley. Guys like Trey Pulliam, Lamonte Butler, Adam Seiko and Chad Baker Mazara, have all had moments but one of those guys stepping up could be the difference. Pulliam hit a number of big shots against Wyoming and every one of them felt like an absolute killer. This Aztecs team has the coaching, experience and talent to win games in March and will absolutely hear their name called on Selection Sunday.

Tournament Verdict: In

SMU

It is also super cliche in the sport of College Basketball, to say that every game matters and one bad loss could be what ultimately keeps your team out of the NCAA Tournament. There is no better example of that, than this SMU team that has had a very good season but just had one bad weekend in November. Two sub Quadrant 3 losses, against Missouri and Loyola Marymount are single handedly what is keeping the Mustangs out of the NCAA Tournament right now. SMU is currently a respectable 5-5 in Quadrant 1 and 2 games, which would look even nicer without the two brutal losses. This is frustrating due to the fact that besides that one bad weekend, SMU has made major strides this season for Head Coach Tim Jankovich, who is looking to get the program back to their first NCAA Tournament since 2017. ‘

The Ponies have taken advantage of their rare chances for big wins, playing in a weaker American Athletic Conference. SMU completed the season sweep of Memphis last week, in addition to their big win over Houston on February 9th. There isn’t a more underappreciated lead guard in the sport, than SMU’s Kendric Davis who is averaging 19.3 Points, 4.6 assists and 4.0 rebounds per game on the season, en route to a Conference Player of the Year award. Davis will give SMU a legitimate chance to earn the automatic bid by winning the AAC Tournament, as SMU has proven they can beat anyone in the league and end with two winnable home games against Cincinnati and Tulane.

Right now SMU needs one more big win to move the needle, and unfortunately there is no guarantee that chance will be there. There’s just a feeling that those two brutal losses in November will ultimately be what costs the Ponies.

Tournament Verdict: Out

Virginia Tech

Part of what makes the selection process of this year’s NCAA Tournament participants so interesting, is that the committee will be valuing metrics such as the NET and KenPom. These rankings are analytically based on many factors including efficiency, strength of schedule and many more. The Hokies, are considered outliers in these rankings maybe many considering, they are ranked #33 in KenPom and #40 in the NET. Usually, teams ranked in those spots are going to get into the tournament but Virginia Tech’s resume says otherwise. The Hokies are currently 17-12 overall and 10-8 in the ACC.

 Mike Young’s team returned 4 of the 6 top scorers from last year’s team that made the NCAA Tournament. In addition, they added Point Guard Storm Murphy from the Transfer Portal, who played under Mike Young at Wofford. Relative to the preseason expectations, it has been a disappointing season overall for Virginia Tech, however they did earn their second win of the season, over a likely NCAA Tournament team on Saturday at Miami. This was payback for the Charlie Moore half court buzzer beater earlier this season in Blacksburg, where it felt like any slim NCAA Tournament hopes the Hokies had was over. Instead, they have won out of their last 9 out of their last 10 games heading into Saturday’s regular season finale at Clemson. Virginia Tech will need a win or two at the very least in the ACC Tournament to make things interesting, but they are fully capable with last year’s NCAA Tournament experience.

Tournament Verdict: Out