With Wednesday’s scratch of morning line favorite Omaha Beach, this year’s Kentucky Derby is absolutely wide open, which means a plethora of great betting opportunities, and that’s right up my alley!
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
Let’s run through the field:
1-War of Will: 15-1, Seemed like he’d be a top contender over the winter, but has regressed and hasn’t run in 11 weeks. If he wins, I won’t be cashing a ticket.
2-Tax: 20-1, Here’s a longshot I like a little. Pretty consistent speed figures, and a ran second in the Wood Memorial to Tacitus. I didn’t love that race, but it wouldn’t shock me if this one can get a piece of the exotics.
3-By My Standards: 15-1, The Louisiana Derby winner seems to be one the “buzz” horses this week, and I’m buying into the hype to be honest. Ran great in that Louisiana Derby win and his workouts this week at Churchill have been terrific. He’ll be somewhere on my ticket.
4-Gray Magician: 50-1, He won’t be on my ticket. Not much to say about this guy as he seems very much an outsider in here.
5-Improbable: 5-1, The first of Bob Baffert’s three headed monster. Ran a really strong second to Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby, and has every right to improve here. He missed a little training while Santa Anita Park was closed, and could be sitting on his best race. Definitely can’t ignore.
6-Vekoma: 15-1, Won the Bluegrass pretty impressively but something about him doesn’t scream Derby Winner to me. His awkward running style probably has something to do with it. Watch the Bluegrass Stakes on YouTube and you’ll see what I mean.
7-Maximum Security: 8-1, Really dangerous now as he might be the only true speed in the race. He won the Florida Derby in frontrunning style, and may be able to wire this field up.
8-Tacitus: 8-1, Wood Memorial winner has done nothing wrong and certainly can’t be ignored as a contender. I will not be using him, and could regret it.
9-Plus Que Parfait: 30-1, UAE Derby winner ran huge that day, but it was a very weak field that day in Dubai. Much much tougher here. I won’t be playing him.
10-Cutting Humor: 30-1, Todd Pletcher is on the outside looking in this Derby season as far as legit contenders go, but this one did run huge while winning the Sunland Derby. Hasn’t faced anything like these though, I’ll pass.
11-Haikal 30-1, Big time closer has pretty much fired every time, but won’t have the pace to run at this weekend. Wrong race for him since there’s just no speed, that’s a shame, because he has the ability to light up the tote board.
12-Omaha Beach: SCRATCH
13-Code of Honor: 12-1, Fountain of Youth winner could suffer from lack of pace like Haikal above. Needs that fast pace to run at as a big time closer. Needs to be closer to the front, but I’m not sure if he can.
14-Win Win Win: 12-1, This might be my top horse. A friend of mine pointed out to me how much trouble he got into in his last race, basically had to stop to avoid horses who were fading in front of him on the far turn, yet still re rallied to finish second. At 12-1, he might be too much of a bargain for me to pass up a win bet on.
15-Master Fencer: 50-1, No shot. If he wins, I have no idea what I’m doing. I wouldn’t bet this horse with your money.
16-Game Winner: 4-1, Baffert’s second monster will now likely be the favorite with Omaha Beach’s defection, and deservedly so. He was the two year old champion and has been barely beaten in his efforts of late. Like Improbable, he missed a bit of training earlier this Spring and has had to play catch up. Could be primed for a huge effort. A must use.
17-Roadster: 5-1, The Santa Anita Derby winner is the third of the Baffert triumvirate, and like the others, seems like a top contender. His wins though have been in very short fields, and he won’t have a clear path to the front with 20 horses around him. It’s risky, but I’m likely off of him.
18-Long Range Toddy: 30-1, Great name, and that’s something, right? Seems to have regressed a little of late, but is the only horse in the field that has beaten Improbable.
19-Spinoff: 30-1, I like By My Standards a little, and this one had the lead at the top of the stretch in the Louisiana Derby that By My Standards won. He could be a sneaky horse for the bottom of exotics.
20-Country House: 30-1, Improving colt for sure, but I just don’t see it against these. Check back on him in a few months. I see a big future here, but not in this race.
21-Bodexpress: 30-1, Gets into the field as the first Also Eligible. He’s still a maiden, though he did run second in the Florida Derby, but was no real threat to the winner. He shouldn’t be a threat in here either.
So i just wrote a ton of stuff and it would probably be wise to use the two Baffert horses I like on top and be happy with that. But of course, this is the Derby, and I’m looking/hoping for a bigger score.
That Being Said:
1st-Win Win Win
2nd-Improbable
3rd-Game Winner
4th-By My Standards
Probably a win bet on the top horse, and a 4 horse Exacta Box and 4 horse Trifecta box with all 4 choices. Good luck and enjoy the greatest two minutes in sports!
Seth, a die hard fan of Orioles Baseball and Tar Heel Basketball has been in the gambling industry for 20 plus years. He’s been trying to find the secret to picking winners even longer than that. Seth lives in Eldersburg Maryland with his wife and two children.