A new regular season is upon us, which means it’s time for predictions. Here are mine for where the teams will finish in the AFC North during the 2022 season.
- Cincinnati
- Baltimore (wild card)
- Pittsburgh
- Cleveland
I think the Bengals and Ravens will fight it out for the division title while the Steelers and Browns will fight to stay out of the cellar. I think the restored and reinforced Ravens will bounce back from their last-place finish and be in the mix to win the AFC, and they have the advantage of a last-place schedule vs. the Bengals facing a first-place schedule. To me, though, Baltimore has to prove they can beat Cincinnati head-to-head, something they did not come close to last season.
Yes, I am well aware of how depleted the Ravens were last year when they faced the Bengals, especially the second time when they practically played a junior varsity secondary against Cincinnati’s explosive passing attack. I would also expect the Bengals to be better this season, though, unless they get bit hard by the injury bug.
They’ve already had some issues in camp with Joe Burrow’s emergency appendectomy and second-round pick CB Cam Taylor-Britt’s core-muscle surgery. Burrow will be ready for week one, however, and Taylor-Britt was filling in for unsigned veteran Jessie Bates III, who has since signed and reported to the team.
The Bengals addressed their biggest weakness from 2021, the offensive line, through free agency and the draft. QB Joe Burrow is entering only his third season, and star WR Ja’Marr Chase in starting his second. As good as they were last year, they should both be better this season-especially since Burrow is likely to stay upright more often and not suffer 70 sacks like he did in 2021.
The Ravens injury situation is still somewhat in question. RB Gus Edwards and LB Tyrus Bowser are starting the season on the reserve/PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list, meaning they will have to miss at least the first four games of the season. LT Ronnie Stanley just returned to practice for the first time in a year, while RB J. K. Dobbins has been practicing since early August. The status of both for the opener against the Jets is still a question.
Baltimore has recently signed reinforcements at RB (Kenyan Drake) and WR (Demarcus Robinson), and both may be needed week one since the wide receiver corps outside of Rashod Bateman has been nicked up during camp. They won’t be at full strength to start the season against their run of four straight AFC East opponents, but they’ll be closer to it than they have been since 2020. That should be enough to compete with, if not beat, Cincinnati. The Ravens will have their first shot at the Bengals in Baltimore on Sunday night, October 9 in what could be the biggest game within the AFC North this season.
Pittsburgh and Cleveland have been the teams in the division drawing the most attention during training camp. The Steelers did so for more traditional football reasons. The primary focus for Pittsburgh has been finding the successor to Ben Rothlisberger at quarterback, and it appears to be free agent veteran Mitch Trubisky. There has not been a formal announcement by Mike Tomlin, but Trubisky has been assumed to be the starter. I believe the jobs was Trubisky’s to lose in camp, and although rookie Kenny Pickett may have outplayed him, Trubisky was plenty good enough not to lose it.
More recently, the Steelers’ offensive line has received attention, and it’s not good. There were times during the preseason that Pittsburgh QBs seemed to be running for their lives. This was a disappointing development considering that, like Cincinnati, Pittsburgh had made revamping the OL an offseason priority. So far, not so good. The Steelers travel to Cincinnati to open the season, and the Bengals’ DE Trey Hendrickson, who had 14 sacks last season, will likely be licking his chops facing this shaky Pittsburgh line.
If the Steelers’ offensive line can at least be mediocre, they would be in position to take advantage of their outstanding skill position players. That assumes RB Najee Harris’ Lisfranc sprain in his foot is not serious and does not impede him this season. Their defense has some marquee players in T. J. Watt, Cam Hayward, and Minkah Fitzpatrick, but the middle of their defense was soft last year and still appears to be a question. Pittsburgh was unusually weak against the run last year, which would be a major problem for them again with all the quality RBs in the AFC North.
The Steelers will need to survive their difficult early schedule to stay competitive within the division. If things start out rocky for Trubisky, that could begin a revolving door at QB and mire Pittsburgh in mediocrity, if not worse, this season.
No team has been as closely watched as the Browns this summer for all the wrong reasons. With Deshaun Watson now out until Week 13, the offense is in the hands of QB Jacoby Brissett. He has been tagged with the often derisive label of game manager, which means he is perceived to not make many plays, either positive or negative. I believe if Baker Mayfield had been a game manager last season, Cleveland may have made the playoffs, but he made too many negative plays. If Brissett can avoid that, the Browns may be able to stay in the playoff hunt.
Cleveland has a team well set up for a game manager QB-they have a strong running game and a good defense. Like Pittsburgh, they also had issues with the middle of their defense last year. They have addressed that through free agency and the draft and need to see improvement to be as near an elite level as their fans seem to think they are.
The Browns could finish ahead of the Steelers if Brissett plays reasonably well and their running backs stay healthy. They won’t likely be exciting, but I think Cleveland fans have probably had enough excitement this off season to tide them over.
Coming up:
Steelers at Bengals, 1:00 PM Sunday
I don’t expect the debut of Pittsburgh QB Mitch Trubisky to go very well given the state of their offensive line and the Bengals’ strong pass rush. Joe Burrow will likely air it out against the Steelers’ secondary, and I expect their playmaking ability to carry Cincinnati to a comfortable opening day win.
Ravens at Jets, 1:00 PM Sunday
Ravens fans have been anticipating a matchup with former Super Bowl hero Joe Flacco starting at QB for the Jets. That may not happen as QB Zach Wilson could play despite a meniscus tear in his knee. New York is expected to finish at the bottom of the AFC East again this season, but they appear to be trending up. If J. K. Dobbins is limited or unavailable, Baltimore may have to rely on the legs and arm of QB Lamar Jackson. That should be more than enough to get the Ravens off to a wining start.
Browns as Panthers, 1:00 PM Sunday
Cleveland faces former QB Baker Mayfield, who won the starting job in Carolina after the Browns finally dealt him. Mayfield has, of course, been talking, but can he back it up? He does have weapons with RB Christian McCaffery healthy, at least for the moment, and former Terp D. J. Moore, one of the best WRs in the NFL. Cleveland’s star DE Myles Garrett will be matched up against a rookie T. and I would expect him to renew his acquaintance with Mayfield in the Panthers backfield several times during the game. I don’t think the Panthers are a very good team, and I expect the Browns to be able to squeak out an opening day win.
News From the North
A lot of stuff has happened since 2004, but one thing that hasn’t is the Cleveland Browns winning their opening game. There was a tie against Pittsburgh in 2018, but the last opener they won was against the Ravens, 20-3 in 2004. That is the ONLY opening game the Browns have won since their rebirth in 1999. The previous record was held by the Philadelphia Eagles, who lost nine straight openers from 1968-1976. Yes, this Browns streak is truly special.
For those of you keeping track of these things, Deshaun Watson’s suspension breaks down like this:
- October 10-Allowed to return to the team facility for limited activities
- November 14-Allowed to practice
- December 4-Eligible to play vs. Texans at Houston
Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @jimjfootball and read all of my work at jimjfootball.com. I’ve kept it simple so you (and I) can easily remember it.
Jim Johnson spent most of his life in Maryland, growing up with the Orioles, the Colts, Terps, and later Ravens. He started his sports writing career as “The Courtmaster,” covering the Terps and ACC hoops and was a frequent guest on Bob Haynie’s old WNST show and other sports talk across the region. He is currently in his second run at BSL. After previously covering Maryland and Big Ten Football, he now writes about the NFL, primarily the action in the AFC North. Jim covers both current and historic stories, seeking perspective and having fun in the process.