Previewing Today & 2011 for the Baltimore Ravens

In a few hours, the Baltimore Ravens will get to begin their 2011 season. After three successive trips to the playoffs, which have included two season ending losses at Pittsburgh; winning the AFC North and having the ability to host a home playoff game seems like the current key. Overall, I feel better about the Ravens heading into 2011 than I did heading into 2010, believing that the athleticism of the roster is superior and that both lines have been improved.

The Opening Roster:

QB: Flacco, Taylor (2)
Thoughts: There are areas Flacco can improve, but not enough focus on the good he brings to the table. For the 2nd consecutive year, he threw for 3,600+ yards. He had a QB Rating of 93.6%, and had 25 TD’s against just 10 picks. He has also now won 4 playoff games (all on the road). He is not in that elite group of P. Manning, Brady, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers and Roethlisberger; but I would argue he is in the discussion with anyone at the top of that next tier. If you are going to judge Flacco, do so after this season. He now has a greater ability to audible at the line, and to call his own plays. In his 4th year in the league, and 4th year in Cameron’s system, I do expect big things. Another under-rated aspect about Flacco is that he so far played in every game of his career. If he were to go down, there are plenty who believe Bulger would end his retirement to return. Right now that is hypothetical, and Taylor is the backup. For all of Taylor’s physical gifts, I like that his first inclination as a QB is to stay in the pocket. He showed plenty of things to like during the pre-season, and I certainly believe he can play in the league. My only question is he the right guy to be the backup, for a team trying to win a Super Bowl? If Flacco goes down for any length of time, we understand the season would likely be over regardless of any veteran brought in. If Flacco was unable to go in the 2nd half in Pittsburgh, it would probably be my preference to have a David Garrard getting the snaps as opposed to Taylor.

RB: Rice, Williams, Allen (3)
Thoughts: Rice still had a very productive season last year, but it was a step-back from the elite season of ’09. I think the primary reason for that was the loss of Gaither, and moving of Oher. This year, you want to see the Yards Per Carry back closer to the 5.3 he had two years ago, vs. the 4.0 from last season. Rice has been adamant about wanting to be an every down back and but up big numbers. With his pass catching ability, he will obviously be on the field for plenty of 3rd downs. I’d prefer him to have less than the 307 carries he received last year. I don’t believe Williams is an upgrade to McGahee, but I do believe Williams is another solid backup RB in his own right. He is a weapon that needs to be utilized, and capable of keeping Rice fresh. I like everything we have read about Allen since he was drafted, and what we saw in the exhibitions. I still think that coming from the triple option at Georgia Tech, that blitz pickup is probably the thing he has to work on the most right now. If Rice, and Williams stay healthy, Allen’s biggest impact in ’11 will be clearly be Special Teams.

FB: Leach (1)
Thoughts: The addition of 2010 All-Pro Vonta Leach will be fun to watch. He announced himself to Ravens fans in one of the Exhibitions where he was looking for contact on a carry, and his helmet popped loose. I’m sure he will be looking for a Steelers player to blow-up today. His blocking abilities in-front of Rice, and for Flacco against the blitz could be a vital improvement. It should be mentioned though that he is replacing a 2x All-Pro in McClain, and that while Leach appears to be a better blocker; is not as good of a runner or pass-catcher out of the backfield. If Leach were to go down to injury, there is nobody on the roster capable of replacing him.

WR: Boldin, Evans, T. Smith, D. Reed, Doss, L. Williams (6)
Thoughts: Boldin’s picture should have been on a milk carton after the Bye last year. I’ve hypothesizes previously of why his production dropped as the year wore on, but the bottom-line is that it did. He is still going to command a lot of attention, and I think it is imperative that he gets off to an early start. The addition of Evans during Training Camp was probably the most significant moment of the off-season. Prior to his addition, Flacco’s 2nd, 3rd, 4th WR’s and his top two TE’s had a combined 12 catches entering this year. With Evans, Flacco received another receiver who enters today with 377 previous grabs. Evans YPC, and YAC both went up last year. We’ve posted several times the comments of our October 2010 interview with Bob DiCesare of the Buffalo News, who stated that Evans still had his legs. Mason was a great possession receiver who often made plays while battling injuries. Evans is going to be an upgrade with his ability to make plays down the field, which will open up the underneath for Boldin. I think Doss enters the year as the 3rd best WR on the roster, and also has a chance to be a very good possession wideout. Both Doss and Smith had great success as Kick Returners at the College level. Smith is going to be a work in progress this year, and I think it would be a mistake to be using him on intricate timing plays where he needs to be running precision routes. That would be asking a lot of him this year. I do think that the Ravens should attempt to get the ball to him down the field on ‘Go Routes’ several times a game. When the Ravens go 4 and even 5 wide, his speed and athleticism will be hard for defenses to deal with in single coverage. If he becomes a weapon during the year, the offense will really be explosive. I would have liked to have seen more from Reed in the 4th Exhibition, and I’m sorry he is missing today. Like Smith, he has great vertical speed, and as a 2nd year player – seems currently ready to make more plays. Can’t say enough about what Williams achieved making this team. Yet another player who has improved the overall athleticism of the roster, and can contribute immediately via Special Teams.

TE: Dickson, Pitta, Wilson, (3)
Thoughts: I am forecasting a lot of 2 TE sets today, and during the year. Today, I see Wilson getting a lot of time because he is the best blocking TE on the roster. The former University of Pittsburgh player showed in the Exhibitions, he also has some hands. I’m really looking forward to watching the 2nd year players Dickson and Pitta. Heap had a great career in Baltimore, and also produced his highest yards per catch numbers ever last year. I think Dickson and Pitta can match, and possibly exceed, Heap’s offensive production. Defenses are going to have a very tough time dealing with Dickson. He is going to run away from LB’s, and be too strong for Safeties.

O-Line: McKinnie, Grubbs, Birk, Yanda, Oher, Gurode, Reid, LeVoir, Mattison (9)
Thoughts: The biggest worry to many of us early in camp, the Offensive Line looks like a strength as the season begins. I could see the line being a work in progress the first several weeks, but as the cohesion builds they will be a force. I don’t believe McKinnie has to be at  his 2009 Pro Bowl level for him to be an upgrade over Oher at LT. I do believe Oher is an upgrade over Yanda at RT, and I do believe Yanda is an upgrade over Chester at RG. Reid and LeVoir are solid tackle depth. Mattison showed some reserve ability, and received extended pre-season experience. The addition of Gurode was masterful, and really eliminates the worry I had about Birk lasting through the season. If anything, maybe the avoidance of wear and tear during the Exhibition season will help Birk stay a bit fresher. I do think we should see the return of more JUMBO package plays this year.

D-Line: Ngata, Cody, McKinney, Redding, Jones, McPhee, Kruger, McAdoo (8)
Thoughts: The only interior lineman in football who has a case for being better than Ngata is Suh. Cody is an obvious upgrade over Gregg, and should help control the running game. Kruger and Jones showed maturation in their play during the Exhibitions, and with the Rookie McPhee – have added depth to the line. It will be disappointing to me, if the Ravens are not regularly rotating bodies here. The talent exists to keep each of these lineman fresh, and overwhelm opposing offensive lines.

LB: Lewis, Johnson, Suggs, Kindle, McClain, Ellerbe, Ayanbadejo, McClellan, Phillips (9)
Thoughts: Suggs played the best ball of his career last year after the Bye, and was on of the primary reasons the Ravens again made the Playoffs. If Kindle can be on the field opposite of him on 3rd down, I think that will only help Suggs maintain that level of play. It would not shock me to see the Ravens ease Kindle into this season a bit though. Even when he does touch the field, I do not expect to see Kindle on the field outside of obvious 3rd down pass rushing situations. McClain and Ellerbe have both seen the field plenty at this point, with McClain starting all of last year. I’m interested to see if either can take their play to another level in ’11. Johnson has dealt with injuries lately, but is said to be healthier entering this year. It might be a good idea to not have him on the field for quite as many snaps. The biggest surprise on the roster to me is McClellan, and I look forward to seeing more of him. I do see that he was the 2006 Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year, and after tearing his ACL and missing ’07, returned to an All-Conference level in ’08, and ’09. I also see that he attended the same Kathleen HS in Lakeland, Florida as Ray Lewis. Lewis will be what he always is, one of the best LB’s in football. With Ngata and Cody in-front of him, Lewis will again be a monster in run-support. Lewis worked hard this off-season to regain a bit of quickness, we will see if that improves his play in pass defense which suffered a bit last year. As always, his will to succeed and pre-game preparation will have him ready to perform. Lewis has said he will retire if the Ravens win the Super Bowl this year. I’ll use that as a reminder to watch him every week and enjoy.

CB: Smith, Webb, Foxworth, Carr,  C. Williams, C. Brown (6)
Thoughts: I don’t care who the starters are, each of the first 5 are going to play plenty during this year. I think Foxworth will probably get burned early, and there will be lots of negativity pointed towards him. I think each week, he will get closer to being the player he was prior to the injury. That player was not an elite NFL CB, but a guy with good cover skills, and plus speed. Foxworth is also extremely intelligent, a true leader. Him being part of the Secondary is a good thing, and it will show at some point this year. There will be adjustments for Smith as a Rookie, but you can not teach his speed, size, and athleticism. The Ravens will ask him at some point this year to play on an Island and defend the best opposing WR’s. I loved Webb as a Rookie two years ago prior to the injury, and saw a guy that had Pro Bowl ability. We haven’t quite seen a return to that form yet, and we have seen him get turned around a bit in the slot. I think with consistent time on the field, this is another player who can raise his game as the year progresses. Like the rest of Baltimore, I’m excited to see what Williams can do. He has size, speed, long arms. He played great in the ’10 Exhibition season, but was Suspended for the first two games of last year and never seemed to get back into the mix. He has the look of a player about to emerge. Carr has been forgotten a bit, but he was very solid last year. Brown played a lot at Texas, and also has plus speed.

Safety: Reed, Pollard, Zbikowski, Nakamura (4)
Thoughts: Reed is not going to hit you like he once did, but his ball hawking abilities remain. The production he had last year after missing the initial 6 games was ridiculous. Nakamura was healthy last year, but has previously missed significant time. Zbikowski spend the last 8 weeks of ’10 on IR. Jeremy Conn from 105.7 The Fan stated recently that he believed Nakamura to be the best of the three Strong Safeties. He’s solid depth, but I don’t agree with that. I also do not agree with the commentary of Zbikowski being better than Pollard in coverage.In a January article reviewing the Texans 2010 defense, John McClain of of the Houston Chronicle said (http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/mcclain/7387410.html) that Pollard was outstanding. In August 2009, Baltimore Sports and Life interviewed Kent Babb who covers the Chiefs for the Kansas City Star. Babb stated the following about Pollard, “Pollard has had some issues with fundamentals and tackling, and the Chiefs brought in veteran safety Mike Brown this year to push Pollard and either make the youngster better or steal his job. So far, Pollard has responded, and he is likely to be the starting strong safety. He has plenty of things he could improve on, but he is good enough if not great.” I think Pollard is an upgrade over Landry, and a better option than the other two.

ST: Koch, Cundiff, Cox (3)
Thoughts: We are just listing a couple of the specialists here, but overall Special Teams should be strong. Again, the improved athleticism of the roster figures here. The new Kickoff rule is going to be a joke for Cundiff.

Schedule and Win / Loss Prediction:
Week 1: Pittsburgh  W (Obviously important to defend home, exercise demons, if you lose – you are basically forced to win at Pittsburgh later in the year)
Week 2: @ Tennessee W (Titans have a good home field, and some play makers, but Baltimore should win that game.)
Week 3: @ St. Louis  L (Another game Baltimore should win, but I’ll call for the loss on the back end of two road games.)
Week 4: New York Jets W (National audience will be watching a game with home-field playoff implications. Hopefully Ryan, Scott, and Mason receive nice ovations beforehand, and we hit them strong when the lights go on. Should be a game very similar to the Opener last year.)
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: Houston  W (I buy into Houston as a playoff team, but don’t buy into them coming into Baltimore and leaving with a win.)
Week 7: @ Jacksonville  W (A nice relaxing road trip for the Ravens.)
Week 8: Arizona  W (The calls of Heap will be loud, bit difficult to see the Cardinals coming East and getting that win.)
Week 9: @ Pittsburgh  L (At Pittsburgh should be an expected loss, but again a game that becomes almost a must win should the Steelers win today in Baltimore. Pittsburgh showed last year that a an early home loss to Baltimore could be overcome. Another National audience.)
Week 10: @ Seattle W (A West Coast road trip right after a trip to Pittsburgh won’t be easy. If the Seahawks looked a bit better, I might have picked the Ravens to lose here.)
Week 11: Cincinnati  W (Baltimore needs to go 4-0 against the Bengals, and Browns and 3-1 at the minimum. Absolutely can not lose the division games at home to those teams.)
Week 12: San Francisco W (The 49ers have plenty of skill position talent, but until otherwise proven, Smith does not scare anyone at QB. A good way to end Thanksgiving.)
Week 13: @ Cleveland  W (Of the four division games against Cleveland and Cincinnati, this is the one that ‘scares’ me the most.)
Week 14: Indianapolis  W (Would it surprise anyone if this is the game where Manning returns? If he is on the field, I will not pick the Ravens to win. Without him, Baltimore gets the victory.)
Week 15: @ San Diego L (Could home-field advantage be at stake in this game? Don’t think the Ravens would worry about returning to San Diego in January, but I don’t think the Chargers would like to have to play in Baltimore. I like the Chargers a lot, and at home they should be favored.)
Week 16: Cleveland  W
Week 17: @ Cincinnati  W (We will see who is on the field for this one, and what is at stake when the game is played.)

Projected Record = 13-3 AFC North Champions
Thoughts: I’m currently going on the assumption that Manning will not be available for the Colts in Week 14. There are some interesting games on the schedule. Tennessee, St. Louis, Houston, Arizona, Seattle, San Francisco are all games where the Ravens figure to be favored, but those teams have the ability to pull an upset. The Ravens need to win 5 of those 6 games if they want to be hosting Playoff games in January. The games against Pittsburgh, the Jets, and the Chargers figure to determine where Baltimore finishes within the Conference.

5 Thoughts on Today vs. Pittsburgh:
1) We talked about it with the TE’s above, but even though I would like to see the Ravens spread out the Steelers and attack their corners, I’m seeing a lot of 2 TE sets and play-action being called.
2) I do think the Ravens offensive line will be a strength during the year, but I’m concerned a bit about today. In addition to the extra blocking TE, Leach has to help pick up the blitz at FB, and using the JUMBO package might also be a good idea.
3) Number of Baltimore players experiencing this Pittsburgh / Ravens game for the first time. They say the speed of the game changes from Exhibitions to the Regular Season, and the Regular Season to the Playoffs. The animosity between these teams will have the hitting at Post-season levels from the opening bell. How do the new players respond?
4) The Steelers figure to try and spread out Baltimore and try and take some chances down the field. When Pittsburgh spreads out, will the Ravens sell out on the blitz?
5) For everyone that wants to point to Flacco and say it is on his shoulders to match Roethlisberger, I think there is also pressure on Coach Harbaugh and his staff to tactically match Coach Tomlin and the Steelers Coordinators.

Here are some links to some Q&A’s we conducted (or where we were interviewed) leading up to the season:

Ravens Q&A with National Analysts (National Football Authority, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders)
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=2837

Baltimore Sports and Life interviewed by The Baltimore Sun
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=2824

Ravens Q&A with Local Writers (John Eisenberg / CSN Baltimore, Dan Kolko / MASN, Tony Lombardi / Ravens 24×7, Bruce Raffel / Baltimore Beatdown, Kevin Van Valkenburg / Baltimore Sun)
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=2584

Clifton Brown, Sporting News
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=2571

Joe Hortiz, Ravens Director of College Scouting
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=1889

National Writers Discuss the Ravens: (Joe Posnanski / Sports Illustrated, Pete Schrager / Fox Sports, Pete Prisco / CBS Sports, Mike Wilkening / Pro Football Weekly)
https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=2104