The first half of the week 9 win over the Indianapolis Colts was one of the ugliest halves of offensive football the Ravens have played in years. Fortunately, the Ravens defense gave one of their best efforts of the season, scoring a TD on a fumble recovery while limiting the Colts to just 10 points despite playing without Marlon Humphrey and losing Calais Campbell to a calf injury on the first drive of the game.
The Ravens offense came alive in the second half and the defense continued stifling the Colts as the Ravens outscored their opponent 17-0 after halftime. This game was important for a number of reasons aside from just coming away with a win over an AFC contender; my two biggest takeaways were the offense looking like a completely different unit in the second half and the emergence of rookie defenders Justin Madubuike and Malik Harrison.
(You can talk about the Ravens on our message board and follow along Sunday night in our game thread.)
I want to start with the two rookies because their contributions cannot be overlooked. These two players were both 3rd round draft picks that have had relatively minor roles coming into this game, but they stepped up when called upon in a big way. Harrison started next to Partick Queen for the first time this year with L.J. Fort out with an injury and he played a big role in containing the Colts run game. His size and tackling ability really showed up on film. It’s unclear how long he will continue to be a starter, but he could see his role expand in the second half of the year.
Justin Madubuike has been a part of the defensive line rotation since returning from a pre-season injury, but he played a bigger role against the Colts after Campbell went out in the Colts first drive of the game. Madubuike proved to be solid against the run and he had one of the plays of the game where he sniffed out a screen and made what could have been a TD saving shoe-string tackle. Campbell could be out for a while so having a player like Madubuike to jump into the starting defense is a luxury that not many teams have.
Onto the Ravens offense which looked like a completely different unit in the second half of the game. Greg Roman has demonstrated the ability to make important adjustments on the fly the past 2 weeks as he unleashed the QB option with J.K. Dobbins with highly effective results against the Pittsburgh Steelers and then came out in the second half of the Colts game with an up-tempo pass-first attack that completely took the Colts by surprise.
The Ravens have been one of the run-heaviest teams over the past two seasons and with good reason – they have been extremely effective running the ball. While this has still held true on the macro level this year, the Ravens are still very good at running the ball, they have not been as effective running the ball on 1st & 10 averaging only 3.7 YPC with a success rate of just 45%. That means more than half the time, the offense is going to be in a disadvantaged position for that set of downs. In 2019, the Ravens averaged 5.9YPC in the same situations with a 55% success rate. This put the Ravens in great position to pick up a first down and string together long drives, but in 2020 it’s been much more of a struggle.
There are a number of reasons why the Ravens have struggled on first down runs in 2020 compared to last year with the loss of Marshal Yanda being a major factor. Without Yanda there seems to be a trickle down effect that has mostly impacted the interior of the offensive line – they just don’t have the same talent up front to consistently win in run blocking. Defenses have also adjusted to the Lamar Jackson-led rushing attack, often sending an extra defender to take away his ability to gain the edge. These things have been apparent in stretches throughout the 2020 season, but it perhaps became most apparent in the first half against the Colts. The Ravens just could not run the ball, and it stalled the offense fairly dramatically.
When the Ravens came out in the second half, two things stood out: the Ravens used tempo which is something they have not employed very often this season and they started passing more on first down. The quick passing game attacked the middle of the field with slants and crossing routes to a number of different receivers including Willie Snead, Marquise Brown and Nick Boyle. It’s hard to say for sure if this is something the Ravens will do more of moving forward, but it is very promising that they are capable of moving the ball this way. Lamar Jackson was 10 for 10 passing in the second half and having him get the ball out quickly on defined reads may be an elixir to the Ravens offensive woes. Once the passing game started to click it also opened up the ability to run the ball as the offense became less predictable.
Looking ahead to week 10 and the Ravens match-up with the New England Patriots I will be interested in seeing if Greg Roman uses this performance as a lesson learned. Will he adapt to what works against a specific defense or will he try to force an offensive gameplan that may or may not work?
The Patriots may not have the same quality of defense they showed last year or even the same quality that the Colts possess, but they do have a defensive mastermind in Bill Belichick, and we have to expect that he will have a gameplan that will slow down Lamar Jackson. In the Patriots last game in which they barely eked out a win over the winless Jets, they struggled to effectively pressure the QB and were repeatedly beaten deep by Joe Flacco. The Pats were playing without All-Pro CB Stephon Gilmore whose status is up in the air for the match-up with the Ravens. If Gilmore can’t go, this could be a good game in which the Ravens try pushing the ball downfield a bit more.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Patriots have struggled this season, ranking 24th in offensive DVOA while posting the 5th worst scoring offense in the NFL. Cam Newton has been extremely inconsistent at QB although his ability to run the ball has kept them in several games. The Patriots have been one of the better running teams in the NFL and that starts with Newton and a solid offensive line. While the Ravens will be without Calais Campbell they still match up well against the Patriots and should be able to limit their running game. If the Ravens can put the Patriots in a lot of 3rd & long situations, Wink Martindale’s defense should give Newton more pressure than has shown to be capable of handling.
When the schedule came out in the offseason this game looked like it could be one of the better games of the year, but with Tom Brady leaving New England their overall level of play has severely fallen off. The Ravens may not be playing at quite the level that would be expected, especially on the offensive side of the ball, but they remain one of the better teams in the NFL. I think the Ravens will fairly easily take care of business against the Patriots, but I will be watching what they do on offense very carefully. Will they be able to carry over the success they found in the second half against the Colts? If they can maintain that level of play, this game could very easily turn into a laugher. Regardless, I expect the Ravens to come away with a victory, let’s say 31 – 17.
Ravens Analyst
Gabe is an avid fan of the NFL and Ravens football. He grew up in Westminster, MD, and attended college at Johns Hopkins University majoring in Biology. He earned his Ph.D. in Molecular Biology from the University of California, Los Angeles, and now works as a R&D Scientist developing Transplant Diagnostics assays. Gabe has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan.