Previewing Week 12: Ravens at Steelers

The Ravens and Steelers were supposed to be the marquee match-up for the NFL on Thanksgiving Day, but due to a rash of COVID-19 positive tests in the Ravens facility, the game will now be played Sunday. We certainly hope that no one is seriously affected by the disease, but this outbreak, which was reportedly caused by a strength and conditioning coach that skirted the rules, feels analogous to a Ravens season that has not at all gone according to plan.

We will talk about the Ravens upcoming match-up with the Steelers, but first some discussion about what on earth has gone wrong with the team. You can discuss on our message board here, and our game thread is always a fun time too.

The Ravens were Super Bowl favorites for the 2020 season, coming off of a 14-2 campaign in which the team set numerous Franchise and NFL records as one of the most prolific and efficient offenses in recent memory. A lot has changed in 2020, but it is difficult to pinpoint what exactly is the root cause of this year’s team. Somehow one of the best offenses ever has fallen completely off the face of a cliff to become entirely un-remarkable and frankly painful to watch.

The offense has been challenged almost from the start of the season. A week 1 performance in which the Ravens easily handled the Browns seemed like business as usual, but almost everything has been difficult since then. The Ravens have hardly been able to string together back to back drives in which they look competent, much less two halves of a football game.

We all knew that Marshal Yanda would be missed, and injuries have also affected the offensive line with Matt Skura not playing at the same level and Ronnie Stanley being lost for the season in the Ravens first match-up with the Steelers. It’s hard to just blame the OL however, because even when Lamar Jackson has had time in the pocket, he has had trouble finding open receivers down field.

It’s almost hard to imagine this is the same offense that lit the league on fire in 2019. It seemed that half a dozen times a game there was a wide open receiver catching a pass or Jackson was darting through a hole in the defense that always seemed to appear exactly as it was designed.

Part of the problem might be that it pretty much is the same offense as what the Ravens showed last season. It wasn’t exactly a secret that the Ravens ran a pretty simple system that was dressed up with a wide and varied range of personnel packages and pre-snap motions. Greg Roman could put heavy personnel on the field or he could spread defenses out with 5 receivers – he was fantastic at keeping teams guessing.

Now that the Ravens are missing a few key players along the offensive line and two versatile TEs that helped fuel the offense, that deception has largely gone out the window. Roman still seems intent to run the football however, likely to a fault. The Ravens continue to the run the ball on 1^st & 10 at one of the highest rates in the league, but they are one of the least successful teams doing so.

Even if the Ravens were to turn to the passing game, it’s unlikely a great fix for all that is wrong with the offense. Jackson’s showing so far in 2020 has been a far cry from his MVP performance of just a year ago. He seemed to have all the answers playing behind a stalwart OL, but as the line faltered, so has Jackson’s confidence in the pocket. Too many times has he run himself into a sack or has been forced to throw the ball away when evading a rush that perhaps could have easily been avoided by maneuvering in the pocket – a skill he displayed quite well in 2019. Jackson’s accuracy has also declined while the number of turnover-worthy throws has significantly increased.

The issues do not all like with Jackson however, Ravens receivers have dropped the ball repeatedly in big moments and they have struggled to get open all season. Opposing defenses have been less wary of Jackson’s ability to scramble and have shown the Ravens more man coverage looks while often leaving a DB or LB to spy the QB. Greg Roman has yet to consistently find a solution to get open receivers on a regular basis.

A lot has gone wrong for the Ravens this year, but all is not lost yet. They are currently in a very difficult stretch of the season but it the final five games should be much easier. However, the Ravens still face a very daunting task this Sunday against a 10-0 Steelers team that is playing very good football. The Steelers have not always won pretty and have had plenty of inconsistency on both sides of the ball. The difference between the Ravens and the Steelers is that Pittsburgh has found ways to win the close games while the Ravens have faltered.

Consider the Ravens and Steelers first match-up. The Ravens nearly doubled the offensive yardage of the Steelers and had a chance to win the game driving the ball all the way down the field inside the 10, but couldn’t make the plays that mattered when it mattered.

Pittsburgh is still a very talented team and they are fortunate to be at near full-strength this season. They have been able to avoid the injuries and COVID-19 positives that have severely impacted the Ravens this year. It’s going to be hard for the Ravens to move the ball on offense if they try to take the same approach that worked in the previous game. I don’t think the Ravens will be able to run the ball effectively without multiple offensive lineman, Boyle, Ingram and Dobbins.

Greg Roman is going to have to get creative with his offensive gameplan and use Lamar Jackson’s mobility and athleticism to create opportunities in the passing game. This is going to have to be a game for Jackson’s playmakers like Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown to show up in a big way. The Ravens will also likely need significant contributions from role players like Justice Hill, Miles Boykin and Willie Snead. I want to see some bootlegs and moving the pocket to get Jackson some easy throws. The quick-hitting PA passing game and RPOs that worked against Indianapolis should also be a staple in this match-up.

On defense the Ravens are also going to be without several significant contributors with Calais Campbell, Brandon Williams and Pernell McPhee all likely out for this game. Jimmy Smith may also not be available which is a major blow to the Ravens depth at CB. Wink Martindale is going to have to scheme up the game-plan of this life for the Ravens to keep the Steelers off-guard. In the previous match-up, the Ravens played fairly conservatively on defense, but I could see that change in this one. The Ravens DBs are going to have to play aggressively against the Steelers talented WRs and knock them off their routes which will fluster Ben Roethlisberger. If the Ravens can make the Steelers’ QB question what he is seeing it should lead to some sacks and possibly turnovers as well.

The Ravens are significantly undermanned and are fighting a COVID outbreak. It’s going to be a challenge, but sometimes a situation like this allows a team to come together and gain focus and resolve. I’m hoping that to be the case for this Ravens team. If they can manage a win, it could propel them into a strong finish and set them up nicely for the playoffs. A loss would make their path to the playoffs much more daunting, but not impossible by any stretch. I think it is asking a little too much to expect the Ravens to come away with a win, but I do think they keep it close, let’s say a 20 – 24 loss.