In last week’s loss on the road to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Ravens showed that they can compete with any team in the NFL. While the defense was stung by a late game TD that sent the game to overtime, they held the NFL’s best offense in check for much of the game. They confused and harassed one of the best QBs in the NFL into a very mediocre performance.
While the defense impressed, the offense carried on in its usual way with Lamar Jackson starting at QB. The Ravens run the ball more than any other team in the NFL, and while it has been effective enough over the past 4 games, there is going to have to be more of an impetus to push the ball down the field if the Ravens hope to make the playoffs and have any success in January.
The Ravens will have another golden opportunity to put a little bit more on Jackson’s plate as they have a home match-up with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who possess one of the worst pass-defenses in the NFL. Jackson has been wildly inconsistent through 4 games as the starting QB when it comes to passing the ball. He has made some spectacular plays, especially in situations where he can improvise as the play breaks down. He has also repeatedly shown an inability to make basic throws to open receivers.
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Jackson’s impact on the Ravens running game has been well documented, but is athleticism has a positive impact on the passing game as well. Opposing defenses are forced to account for his ability to run the ball at any time, and are very susceptible to play action. This makes scheming open receivers much easier for the coaching staff which was born out last week against Kansas City where Jackson had his best game as a passer.
The Bucs are not a good defense against the run (30th Run defense DVOA) or the pass (28th Pass defense DVOA), but they may decide to sell out against the run and force Jackson to beat them over the top. We saw Kansas City make some adjustments last week, which slowed down the Ravens rushing attack and it is likely that other teams will adopt a similar philosophy. How Jackson and the Ravens coaches respond to these adjustments will go a long way to determining the team’s fate.
While the Bucs have been an extremely poor defense all season, their offense has at times been extremely effective. They rank 2nd in the NFL in total offense, and first in passing yards per game. Their efficiency rankings per DVOA are more middle of the pack, largely due to their propensity to turn the ball over, but they are still a dangerous offense with talented playmakers.
The QB position for the Bucs has been extremely volatile this season as veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick and 4th year player Jameis Winston seemingly alternated as the starter for several weeks. Winston now appears to be the starter for the rest of the season, and the former #1 overall pick has the talent to justify that decision. Even though he has only started 6 games this season, he has over 2,000 yards passing at 8.0 YPA, a very impressive mark. His 14 TDs to 12 INTs is one of the major reasons why the Bucs have struggled at times this season, but even with all the turnovers the ability to put up points is there.
Winston is still a young and mistake-prone QB, so the Ravens would be wise to approach this game with a similar game-plan to what they used last week against Patrick Mahomes. They need to bring pressure and hope to force Winston into some bad throws. Last well the Ravens were able to notch their first interception in 8 games as Mahomes threw an ill-advised pass into the teeth of the Ravens coverage. The ability of the Ravens pass-rush to consistently pressure Winston will be one of the keys to the game.
The Bucs stable of pass-catchers headlined by WR Mike Evans have been a formidable bunch this season. DeSean Jackson, who is their primary deep threat, has been hampered by injuries, but 2nd year WR Chris Godwin has filled in admirably in his stead. Slot receiver Adam Humphries has also had a break-out season and has quickly earned the trust of Winston.
The Ravens will have a tough task matching up against these talented WRs, but fortunately Baltimore is also very talented at the CB position. Marlon Humphrey is having an extremely impressive season, but his status is questionable for Sunday as he has been out of practice all week and was limited last week against Kansas City as well. Fortunately, Jimmy Smith and Brandon Carr have been playing quite for the Ravens, and CB Tavon Young has done well in the slot where he will be matched up against Humphries. If Marlon Humphrey can’t play, I would expect Smith to shadow Mike Evans, as he has the size and physicality to match up with the Bucs receiver.
In the end, the Ravens match-up favorably with the Bucs on defense as they do a good job of limiting opposing passing offenses which is the bread and butter of the Bucs team. If the Ravens defense can get after Winston and force a couple of turnovers it will be a long day for Tampa Bay. The continued evolution of Lamar Jackson at QB will be interesting to watch, but he will also be in an advantageous position going up against a struggling defense. The Ravens are heavily favored to win this one, and I think it should be a fairly easy win for the home team, 27 – 17.
Ravens Analyst
Gabe is an avid fan of the NFL and Ravens football. He grew up in Westminster, MD, and attended college at Johns Hopkins University majoring in Biology. He earned his Ph.D. in Molecular Biology from the University of California, Los Angeles, and now works as a R&D Scientist developing Transplant Diagnostics assays. Gabe has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan.