After a 3-0 start, the Ravens have lost two straight home games and have fired their Offensive Coordinator after some head-scratching playcalling led to a sputtering and ineffectual offense. The Ravens will now go on the road to play another struggling team, the New York Giants. Similar to the Ravens, the Giants got off to a fast start, but did not look pretty in their wins, and are now mired in a losing streak. Which of these slumping teams will bounce back in week 6?
You can discuss this upcoming match-up on our message boards, and follow along in our game thread on Sunday.
The Giants spent a lot of money this past offseason to upgrade their defense, bringing in high priced free agent DE Olivier Vernon, CB Janoris Jenkins and DT Damon Harrison. While these additions have improved the unit to a respectable level, it’s still a mediocre defense overall. The Giants have a strong run-stuffing safety in Landon Collins and their secondary overall has talent, while the strength of their Front 7 lies in their edge rushers. Overall the Giants defense is middle of the pack against the run and against the pass, so there is no obvious weakness for the Ravens to exploit. The biggest concern for the Ravens may be finding a way to slow down the Giants’ two edge rushers, Jason Pierre-Paul and Vernon. Joe Flacco has been under pressure an awful lot this season and the Ravens were without both of their starting OTs in the second half of their week 5 match-up with the Redskins. Ronnie Stanley has missed two straight weeks and we likely won’t know until closer to game-time if he can go in week 6. If he can come back it should help the OL a great deal. The status of RT Ricky Wagner is also up in the air at this point, although Marshal Yanda has proven to be a very good option at RT if needed. It may be another difficult day for Flacco if both starting tackles are out against this talented duo.
The biggest question for the Ravens will be how does the offense look with Marty Mornhinweg taking over at OC? Mornhinweg and Harbaugh go back to their time working under Andy Reid in Philadelphia where Mornhinweg was OC from 2006-2012. The Eagles were a formidable offense for many years under Mornhinweg, and he comes from the Bill Walsh/ Mike Holmgren/Andy Reid coaching tree. His offensive coaching style is rooted in West Coast offense principles, but he has shown a willingness to adapt to his personnel, best personified by the re-birth of Michael Vick in Philadelphia from 2010-2011.
While his offenses have never been defined by running the ball, he hasn’t been prone to completely abandoning the run like we had seen at times with Marc Trestman. RB LeSean McCoy broke out as an elite running back with Mornhinweg at the helm, so expect the RBs to be highly involved both in the rushing attack and as pass-catchers out of the backfield. I would also expect Mornhinweg to take more shots downfield as WR DeSean Jackson, one of the elite deep threats of the past decade, made his mark in Mornhinweg’s offense. I don’t anticipate many schematic changes to the Ravens offensive attack, but I think there will be a better balance of run vs pass and a passing offense that features a lot less dink and dunk. Against the Giants, the Ravens should absolutely look to establish the run early with a heavy dose of RB Terrance West. Flacco should try attack Janoris Jenkins with some double moves, as he has always liked to gamble dating back to his days in college. Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman are both very capable of stretching the field and should open up room underneath for the quick passing attack. A balanced offensive attack will be key for the Ravens.
While the Ravens offense has been significantly underperforming this season, the defense has been very strong through 5 games. They are currently 2nd in the NFL in total defense and rate in the top 5 in both run and pass D while allowing only a 33.8% conversion rate on third down. The Ravens run D, anchored by DT Brandon Williams and LB C.J. Mosley, has been phenomenal all season with only one hiccup being Isaiah Crowell’s 85 yard TD run in week 2. Even with that rush they are allowing a very strong 3.6 YPC. If we remove that one play as an “outlier”, the Ravens run D has allowed 2.8 YPC. Teams just aren’t trying to run against them anymore and for good reason, and I expect no different when the Ravens go to New York on Sunday. Running the ball has been a struggle for the Giants all season, and I don’t expect that to change against the Ravens. With injuries to Rashad Jennings and Shane Vereen, their best RB right now is our old friend Bobby Rainey, although rookie Paul Perkins has made plays as a pass-catcher and might push for a larger role in the offense.
With a non-existent rushing attack, the Giants have been forced to lean on QB Eli Manning for any semblance of an offense, but unfortunately for them he has not played very well recently after a fast start to the season. Eli has never been a great QB, but he has seemingly regressed this season even though he has a decent OL and elite weapons to throw to. Perhaps playing at home will be a boon for Manning, but the Ravens pass defense has proven to be very stingy so far this season. The Giants best player is WR Odell Beckham Jr. who the Ravens will have to game-plan for. While Beckham has been lambasted for his “antics” this season, he is still an elite talent that can beat any team at any time. Look for the Ravens to double team Beckham and play physical with him in an attempt to get him off his game. Opposite of Beckham is rookie WR Sterling Shepard who has acquitted himself well early in his career. He definitely has the talent to hurt defenses if they focus too heavily on Beckham. The Ravens secondary led by Eric Weddle has been much improved from last season, and their ability to take away the Giants talented WRs will be key. Dean Pees should look to mix and disguise his coverages well in order to confuse Manning. Jimmy Smith may be asked to track Beckham in the secondary, although the Ravens have not employed this approach against opposing WRs recently. For the Ravens to succeed, they will need to be disciplined on the back end and make Manning uncomfortable in the pocket as he is very prone to making mistakes when pressured. I believe this might be a week where Pees will dial up some extra pressure packages as the Ravens 4 man pass-rush has been shaky as of late.
The Ravens have played better than the Giants this season, and have shown the ability to win on the road. While both teams have struggled as of late, at least the Ravens have a strong defense to lean on while the Giants are looking for answers across the board. The Ravens do have questions on offense with a new OC taking over, but this kind of change has provided a spark for teams in the past. I think the Ravens will go on the road and win this game behind a strong defensive effort and a re-vamped offensive attack.
Ravens 23 – Giants 16
Ravens Analyst
Gabe is an avid fan of the NFL and Ravens football. He grew up in Westminster, MD, and attended college at Johns Hopkins University majoring in Biology. He earned his Ph.D. in Molecular Biology from the University of California, Los Angeles, and now works as a R&D Scientist developing Transplant Diagnostics assays. Gabe has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan.