It’s been a while since a Ravens – Steelers match-up has felt this important. I think we have to go back to the Christmas Day game in week 16 when Antonio Brown scored a last second TD to win a crazy back and forth game. That loss ended the Ravens postseason aspirations in yet another disappointing season where the Ravens came close, but couldn’t quite get it done.
Fast-forward to 2020 and these two teams look completely different. The Steelers no longer have Brown or fellow offensive star Le’Veon Bell. The Ravens have turned over almost their entire offense with Ronnie Stanley and Nick Boyle the only remaining players from that 2016 roster.
You can discuss the upcoming Ravens-Steelers match-up on our message board and follow along Sunday in our game thread.
The division standings have changed a lot since 2016 as well with the Ravens winning the past two Division titles while the Steelers struggled to achieve a .500 record last year, but in 2020 the Steelers and Ravens are both among the top teams in the AFC with their respective 6-0 and 5-1 records. The Steelers are the last unbeaten team in the conference, and they have some impressive wins including last week’s nail-biting 27-24 victory over the Titans.
Meanwhile, the Ravens are tied with the Chiefs for the best point differential in the AFC at +75, while the Steelers are just behind them at +65. The Ravens also sit just ahead of the Steelers in DVOA where they rank 2nd and 3rd in the NFL through 7 weeks of play, respectively. They are even remarkably similar in how they are winning according to DVOA with the Ravens ranking 3rd in defense and 19th in offense while the Steelers are 2nd in defense and 16th in offense. The difference is the Ravens impressive Special Teams which are far and away the best in the NFL ( the Steelers are a distant 5th).
The Steelers defense has really been the strength of their team this year, and while they have regressed a bit in coverage, their defensive front has been truly dominant. Edge T.J. Watt and DTs Stephon Tuitt and Cam Heyward might be the most talented three-some of any DL in the NFL, and they have made life miserable for every offense they have played so far this season. They have also taken a page out of the Ravens’ playbook and dialed up the blitz percentage to become one of the highest blitz-happy teams in the NFL. They lead the NFL in sacks and sack rate, and also lead the NFL in QB hits (the Ravens are 1 hit less for context).
Pittsburgh has also been nearly impossible to run on this season, allowing a mere 68.8 yards per game at a 3.4 YPC. Where they can be exposed is the back-end of their defense. The increased blitz rate has created more opportunities for opposing QBs if they can avoid the initial pressure. The Steelers have been good at forcing QBs into mistakes as they have 8 INTs on the year, but they will also allow big plays in 1 on 1 coverage or allow receivers to find soft spots in a zone.
The Ravens will have their hands full on offense as they try to find ways to attack the Steelers defense. Baltimore’s strength has been running the football, although they have yet to truly establish the same type of running game they had in 2019, especially early in games. Pittsburgh is going to be a hard opponent in which to get right, but I do think there are some areas that can be exploited, starting with OLB Bud Dupree who is the weak link of the Steelers defensive front.
Aggressive defenses like the Steelers can also be taken advantage of with misdirection and scheme, but it still requires a high level of execution by the blockers which is a point where the Ravens have struggled this season. One has to hope that the Ravens offense was able to work out some of the issues that had been plaguing them through the first 6 weeks, because the Steelers are not a team that will let you get away with poor execution up front. This may also be a game where the Ravens show a few new concepts that they have been waiting to unleash – both in the passing and run game. Finally, I’d like to see the Ravens lean heavily on play-action and RPOs to slow down the Steelers blitz. We saw the Ravens use some RPO concepts effectively against the Eagles and I think it could become a bigger part of the passing game moving forward.
When the Steelers have the ball, I think the Ravens game-plan should be fairly simple – take away the short passing game. Ben Roethlisberger has been getting the ball out of his hand faster than any QB in the NFL this year averaging only 2.29 seconds time to throw. He is also among the lowest in the league in average Intended Air Yards at 6.8 – meaning the average Roethlisberger pass is only intended to travel 6.8 yards past the line of scrimmage.
So how do the Ravens defend this approach? We saw the Ravens defend the Washington Football Team who similarly did not like to push the ball downfield in a very vanilla approach, but I don’t think that is going to work against the Steelers who have a much better QB and much better weapons. The Steelers have some talented receivers that can make plays if given the opportunity, so I think the key will be to press them at the line of scrimmage in order to disrupt the timing of these routes.
The Ravens will also have to be aware of the WR motion and jet action. The Steelers will give the ball to their receivers on those motions as well, so it is more than just misdirection. The good news for the Ravens is that they have the CBs to match up with the Steelers receivers in man coverage and they do a good job of mixing in zone coverages as well.
The other wrinkle the Ravens will be able to mix into this game is new acquisition Yannick Ngakoue. It’s impossible to know how big a part of the game-plan he will account for, but what his presence should allow for more diversity in the pass-rush. We might see more 4 man pass-rushes than Ravens fans have become accustomed to, but I don’t think Wink Martindale will shy away from dialing up the deceptive rushes. If the Ravens can consistently generate pressure while dropping 7 into coverage it should greatly benefit the defense.
In the end, I think these are two fairly evenly matched teams if we look at how they have performed so far in 2020. The Ravens have the advantage being the home team and also coming off the bye, so I think they are correctly favored to win the game. I think the wild card in this game is Lamar Jackson. He’s played well this season, but we have only seen flashes of MVP Lamar. If he plays to that level in this game, I think the Ravens win handily, but for Lamar to be great, we also need to see the supporting cast play well. That means the OL has to protect him and block well in the run game and the receivers have to get open and make plays when given the opportunity. The Steelers are undefeated for good reason – they have played very well this season, but they also have not played a team as talented as the Ravens. I think this game ends up being close, but the Ravens have the edge at home and win by a touchdown 27-20.
Ravens Analyst
Gabe is an avid fan of the NFL and Ravens football. He grew up in Westminster, MD, and attended college at Johns Hopkins University majoring in Biology. He earned his Ph.D. in Molecular Biology from the University of California, Los Angeles, and now works as a R&D Scientist developing Transplant Diagnostics assays. Gabe has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan.