Previewing Wild Card Weekend

The 2024 NFL Regular Season has ended, and Wild Card Weekend is upon us.

Kansas City and Detroit are the respective 1 seeds and have a bye.
Each of the other 12 Playoff teams will be in action.

All percentages mentioned below are from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.
All DVOA numbers from FTN Fantasy.  You can find the final 2024 season DVOA numbers at FTN Fantasy here.

Saturday January 11th

LA Chargers at Houston

The Chargers finished 11-6 and in 2nd place in the AFC West in Jim Harbaugh’s first year as LA’s Head Coach.  LA has felt like Baltimore West with Joe Hortiz as their General Manager, and a number of former Ravens on the roster. LA became a more physical team this year, no surprise with Harbaugh’s influence. If the four best QB’s in football are Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow; Justin Herbert is in the immediate next tier. After all of the injuries he suffered with the Ravens, I was happy to see JK Dobbins have the success he had this year. He did miss sometime (limited to 13 games), but him getting back active the last two weeks before the playoffs begin is a positive step for the Chargers. For the season, Dobbins averaged 4.6 yards per carry, with 9 rushing TD’s, and also had 32 receptions. 2024 2nd round pick Ladd McConkey had a big rookie season. The Georgia Bulldog product had 82 receptions, with 7 TD’s. 2023 1st rounder Quentin Johnston had 55 grabs, and 8 TD’s. Former Ravens Gus Edwards is apparently questionable for Saturday. In his first four NFL seasons, Edwards averaged at-least 5 yards per carry each year. Last year that dropped to 4.1.  This year with LA, that dropped again to 3.6.  Offensive Tackle Rashawn Slater was named to the Pro Bowl. Slater’s defensive teammates DE Khalil Mack, and SS Derwin James were also named as Pro Bowlers. Joey Bosa had 5 sacks this year, and has not hit double digits in sacks since 21. The 14 games he played this year, equal his 14 game total over ’22 and ’23 combined.

The Texans are the AFC South champ at 10-7.  This was year 2 for Head Coach DeMeco Ryans, and QB CJ Stroud.  Last year the Texans were league’s darlings entering the post-season. This year, it feels like people have generally been down on them. Their roster has been depleted a bit, as they’ve lost WR’s Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell along with Safeties Jalen Pitre, and Jimmie Ward to season ending injuries. Houston still has some talent, with Nico Collins (WR), Laremy Tunsil (OT), Joe Mixon (RB), and Derek Stingley (CB) each making the Pro Bowl. The aforementioned Stroud finished the year with 3,722 passing yards, 20 TD’s, and 12 picks. His yards per attempt dropped from 8.2 last year to 7 this year.

LA won their last 3 regular season games, and 4 of their last 6.
Houston won their last game, and was .500 over their last 6.

LA was 6-3 on the road this year, and outscored all opponents by 101 points (402 to 301).
Houston was 5-3 at home, and finished the season with a 0 point differential (372 to 372) vs. their opponents.

DVOA Rankings:
LA Chargers – 9th overall, 12th rated offense, 9th rated defense, 16th rated special teams
Houston – 16th overall, 26th rated offense, 3rd rate defense, 8th rated special teams

LA was 2-5 against other playoff teams.
Houston was 1-5 against other playoff teams.

The Chargers are a 3 point favorite, and given a 52.8% chance to win.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Pittsburgh’s chances of winning this game are the Ravens making multiple errors (turnovers, missed kicks, penalties), and riding the emotion of the rivalry.  The Steelers know they aren’t built to go win multiple playoff games.  This is their Super Bowl. Nothing takes the emotion out of a team like being physically dominated at the line of scrimmage.

Seems likely that Zay Flowers will miss this game.
If there is no Flowers that definitely impacts the ability to regularly move the chains.
Hopefully Justice Hill is back, as he spent most of the year as a nice security blanket on 3rd.
If Hill is not available, one positive is that Keaton Mitchell was moving better on Sunday.
If Flowers is not available, maybe lots of 2 TE sets with Mark Andrews, and Charlie Kolar; and you split Isaiah Likely out more?

Feeding Derrick Henry of course has to happen.
We know the Steelers know that, and he will be their focus.
Due to that, I think you’d normally say, maybe the Ravens should come out passing some to pull some defenders from the box.
I’m thinking just go JUMBO, tell Pittsburgh you are running, and make them show they can stop you.
Just keep running at them with the big uglies until they’re tired of tackling.

My expectation is that Russell Wilson starts, but that Justin Fields is used in multiple packages.

The Ravens of course are the 3rd seed after winning the AFC North.
Pittsburgh is the 6tth seed.

The Ravens opened as a 8.5 point favorite.
Baltimore lost 18-16 in Pittsburgh Nov. 17th. 
The Ravens beat the Steelers 34-17 Dec. 21st. 

Baltimore finished the regular season 12-5, outscoring the opposition by 157 points.
Pittsburgh finished the regular season 10-7, with a plus 33 point differential.

The Ravens won their last 4 games, while the Steelers lost their last 4 games.
The Ravens were 6-3 away, while Pittsburg was 5-3 at home.

DVOA Rankings:
Pittsburgh – 15th overall, 19th rated offense, 8th rated defense, 2nd rated special teams
Baltimore – 1st overall, 1st rated offense, 6th rated defense, 23rd rated special teams

The 2024 Ravens had the 7th highest DVOA season ever.
The ’23 Ravens had the 5th highest, and the ’19 Ravens had the 12th highest.

The Ravens were 5-2 against the other AFC Playoff teams, with wins against everyone (Buffalo, Houston, LA, Pittsburgh, Denver) but Kansas City.
The Ravens were 2-1 against the NFC Playoff teams (wins vs. Tampa Bay, and Washington, a loss vs. Philadelphia).
The Steelers were 4-3 against other playoff teams (wins over LAC, Denver, Washington, Baltimore, losses to Baltimore, Philadelphia, KC).

The Ravens have been given a 72.2% chance of winning.

Sunday January 12th 

Denver at Buffalo 

In his second year with Denver, Sean Payton and the Broncos improved to 10-7, finishing 3rd in the AFC West.
A nice rookie season for QB Bo Nix.  Nix got slightly dinged in the draft evaluations last year for being older (he turns 25 next month) but still went 12th overall.
In his first NFL year, he passed for 3,775 yards, with 29 TD’s against 12 picks. He averaged 6.7 yards per attempt, and he also ran for 430 yards and 4 additional scores.

2018 2nd round pick Courtland Sutton had his first 1,000 yard season since ’19, and finished with 81 receptions, and 8 TD’s.
2023 2nd round pick Marvin Mims had 39 catches, and two 100 yard games over the last 5 weeks.
Javonte Williams led Denver with 513 rushing yards, but just 3.7 yards per attempt.
Defensively, LB Nik Bonitto had 13.5 sacks, and fellow LB Jonathan Cooper had 10.5 more.
CB Pat Surtain had 4 picks, and is in the running for Defensive Player of the Year.
Bonitto, and Surtain were named to the Pro Bowl, as was Mims as a Return Specialist.

The Bills finished the year 13-4, and won the AFC East.
A popular narrative to prop up Allen’s MVP candidacy is that there isn’t a ton of surrounding offensive talent.
That seems odd to me as James Cook and Ray Davis is a strong duo at RB, and Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid is a quality group of pass catchers.
Seems clear that Allen was more comfortable this year not having to look for Diggs on every possession.
Defensively the Bills recently got back LB Matt Milano.  That certainly helps a run defense which has struggled this year.
Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, and AJ Epenesa are other quality defensive pieces.
In addition to Allen, the Bills sent OT Dion Dawkins to the Pro Bowl.

Denver was 4-5 on the road, while Buffalo was 8-0 at home.
The Broncos outscored opponents by 114 points (425-311), while the Bills outscored their opponents by 157 points (525-368).

Denver was 2-5 against other playoff teams, while Buffalo was 2-3.

DVOA Rankings:
Denver – 6th overall, 16th offense, 4th defense, 4th special teams
Buffalo – 4th overall, 2nd offense, 11th defense, 28th special teams

The Bills are a 9 point favorite, and have been given a 68.1% chance of winning.

Green Bay at Philadelphia

The Packers finished 11-6, 3rd in the NFC North.
This was year 2 for Jordan Love as the starting QB. He’ll enter Sunday’s game dealing with a hand injury.
This year he played in 15 of Green Bay’s 17 games, throwing 3,389 yards, 25 TD’s, and 11 picks. I like watching Love, and like everyone else that sees him, I see a highly talented guy,
He’s got the skill set to be elite. He reminds me of former Packers QB Brett Favre in a way, because sometimes his talent can get him in trouble. He thinks he’s capable of every play, so sometimes he forces things.
His job will be that much harder Sunday as WR Christian Watson (21.4 yards per catch) was lost to an ACL injury yesterday.
All is not lost though, as Love does have other options. RB Josh Jacobs had a big year in his first season with Green Bay, with 1,329 yards and 15 TD’s. He also had 43 receptions.
WR’s Jayden Reed, and Romeo Doubs combined for 101 catches, and 10 TD’s.
DE Rashan Gary led the Packers with 7.5 sacks, and Xavier McKinney had 8 picks.
Jacobs, Gary, and McKinney were named to the Pro Bowl.

The Eagles won the NFC East, finishing 14-3. After losing 33-16 at Tampa Bay on September 29th, the Eagles were 2-2, and there was lots of National talk about organizational dysfunction.
Conjecture that QB Jalen Hurts and HC Nick Sirianni couldn’t coexist.
Then Philadelphia rolled off a 10 game winning streak.
Obviously Saquan Barkley turned in an all-time great season.
Hurts is currently in concussion protocol, and his status for Sunday is unknown.
Two years ago Hurts was in the MVP discussion.  The last two years he hasn’t been ‘that guy’, but I think he shown you can win plenty of games with him.
In addition to having Barkley, Hurts has a fantastic set of pass catchers with AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert.
Defensively LB Josh Sweat had 8 sacks, and S CJ Gardner-Johnson had 6 picks.
The Eagles best defensive players are Pro Bowl DT Jalen Carter, and LB Zack Baun.

Green Bay was 5-3 on the road, while the Eagles were 8-1 at home.
The Packers outscored the opposition by 122 points (460-338), while the Eagles outscored their opposition by 160 points (463-303).

Green Bay was 2-5 against the other playoff teams, while Philadelphia was 5-2.

DVOA Rankings:
Green Bay – 3rd overall, 4th offense, 7th defense, 15th special teams
Philadelphia – 5th overall, 13th offense, 1st defense, 14th special teams

Green Bay lost to Philadelphia 34-29 in Week 1 in Brazil.

The Eagles are a 4 point favorite, and given a 51.2% chance of winning.

Washington at Tampa Bay

Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are one of the better NFL stories of the year. With Daniel Snyder in the rearview, this team went 12-5, good for 2nd place in the NFC East.
Daniels was the 2nd pick in the draft, so him being good wasn’t a surprise. But by any measure, he exceeded expectations. 3,568 yards passing, with 25 td’s, against 9 picks. A team leading 891 yards rushing with another 6 scores. He completed 69% of his attempts, and had a yard per attempt average of 7.4. Just a fantastic season.  Washington’s second leading rusher was Brian Robinson who contributed 799 yards, and 4 scores. DC’s top pass catcher is Terry McLaurin who hauled in 82 catches for 1,096 yards and 15 scores! TE Zach Ertz was the second option with 66 catches, 654 yards, and 7 TD’s.  Daniels and McLaurin both made the Pro Bowl.

In his first year with Washington, Dante Fowler posted the second double-digit sack (10.5) season of his career. A nice year for the former #3 overall pick (2015 draft). Frankie Luvu was second on the team with 8 sacks. 2024 2nd pick Mike Sainristil led the Commanders with 2 picks.

Washington was out in the wild for so long as a franchise, it’s easy to feel good for their fanbase.

Tampa Bay finished 10-7 and won the NFC South.
Baker Mayfield completed his second year with the Bucs, and had a monster year.
Mayfield finished with 4,500 yards, 41 td’s, against 16 picks. His yards per attempt average was 7.9.

2024 Rookie 4th rounder Bucky Irvin had 1,122 yards on the ground, with 8 td’s, and also had 47 receptions.
2022 3rd rounder Rachaad White added another 613 yards with a 4.3 yard per carry average.

Mike Evans was limited to 14 games, but posted yet another 1,000 yard season.
2024 3rd rounder Jalen McMillan came on after Chris Godwin was lost to injury, and finished the year with 37 catches, 461 yards, and 8 TD’s.
Tampa Bay also got nice production from TE Cade Otton who had 59 catches.
Defensively, TB’s DT’s Calijah Kancey and Vita Vea combined for 14.5 sacks.
Vea made the Pro Bowl team.

Washington finished 5-3 on the road, while Tampa Bay was 5-4 at home.
The Commanders outscored their opponents by 94 points (485-391), while the Bucs outscored their opposition by 117 points (502-385).

Washington was 1-4 against the other playoff teams, while Tampa Bay was 4-3.

DVOA Rankings
Washington – 10th overall, 6th offense, 23rd defense, 9th special teams
Tampa Bay – 11th overall, 7th offense, 16th defense, 26th special teams

Tampa Bay beat Washington 37-20 in the season opener. 

Tampa Bay is a 3 point favorite, and given a 58.3% chance of winning.

Monday January 13th

Minnesota at LA Rams 

After losing the season final vs. Detroit, the Vikings fell to the 5th seed in the NFC.
That disappointing performance ended their 9 game winning streak, but shouldn’t put too large of a damper on what Minnesota (14-3, 2nd in the NFC North) accomplished this season.
When JJ McCarthy was drafted, the general consensus on the Vikings was that maybe they could be an annoying team to play this year. Possibly flirt with .500.
Nobody expected a contender. When McCarthy was lost to injury for the season with a torn meniscus, there were those thought all was not lost. There was talk that maybe Sam Darnold was ready to step in and keep the Vikings competitive. I’m doubtful anyone had Darnold throwing for 4,300 yards and 35 TD’s. He was fantastic. Of course he was helped having Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to throw too. He also got a boost when TE TJ Hockenson returned to action in November.  I think one of the more overlooked aspects of why the Vikings offense clicked as it did, was the arrival of Aaron Jones. After 7 years in Green Bay, Jones put up 1,138 yards rushing, and a 4.5 yard per carry average in his first season with Minnesota. He also had 51 receptions.  A nice balanced offense, with real weapons everywhere.

Linebackers Jonathan Greenard, and Andrew van Ginkel combined for 23.5 sacks, and CB Bryon Murphy had 6 picks.
Darnold, Jefferson, Greenard, van Ginkel, and Murphy were all named to the Pro Bowl team.

The Rams finished the year 10-7 and won the NFC West.
I’d be surprised to see LA go on a multiple game run, but a team led by HC Sean McVay, and QB Matthew Stafford deserves some respect.
Wasn’t a huge year for Stafford (turning 37 next month), but he’s still got his arm, and has some weapons.

RB Kryen Williams had 1,299 yards rushing with 14 TD’s. He also had 34 receptions.
Former Michigan star (and St. Frances alum) Blake Corum won’t be available though, as he fractured his forearm and is out for the postseason.
WR’s Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp were limited to 23 total games between them, but still had a combined 146 catches for 1,709 yards and 9 TD’s.
Demarcus Robinson averaged 16.3 yards per catch on his 34 grabs. Tutu Atwell had 562 yards.

DT Brandon Fiske had 8.5 sacks, DT Kobie Turner had 8 sacks, LB Bryon Young had 7.5 sacks.
Rookie 1st round pick LB Jared Verse had 4.5 sacks.
Safeties Jaylen McCollough, and Kamren Kinchens both had 4 picks.

Minnesota finished 6-2 on the road, while LA was 5-4 at home.
The Vikings outscored the opposition by 100 points (432-332), while LA was outscored by opponents by 19 points (367-385).

The Vikings were 3-3 against Playoff teams, while the Rams were 2-3.

DVOA Ratings
Minnesota – 7th overall, 15th offense, 2nd defense, 27th special teams
LA – 17th overall, 10th offense, 26th defense, 19th special teams

The Rams beat the Vikings 30-20 in October. 

Minnesota is a 1.5 point favorite on the road, and given a 53.9% chance of winning.