Projecting The Orioles Rotation With Existing Options

With just under 2 months to go until the start of Spring Training, many questions remain about the Orioles’ 2022 starting rotation. When the MLB lockout ends, we will see if the Orioles add any additional external starting pitching options via Free Agency or Trade. With the MLB lockout lingering, and free agent negotiations paused – we assess the Orioles existing internal options.

There’s no doubt that 2021 was a rough year for Orioles starters, who posted a league worst 5.99 ERA, 0.46 runs per game above the 29th ranked Pittsburgh Pirates. Giving up runs at a clip that high leads to short starts, something that plagued the Orioles all season long. With a league-lowest 4.5 innings pitched per start, and a 29th ranked Quality Start percentage (19%), the Orioles bullpen quickly found itself overworked, unsurprisingly leading to a league highest 5.70 ERA.

Matt Harvey led the Orioles in starts last season with 28, followed by John Means (26), Jorge Lopez (25), Keegan Akin (17), and Dean Kremer (13). Other pitchers including Bruce Zimmerman, Spenser Watkins, Alexander Wells, Chris Ellis,Tom Eshelman, and Zac Lowther all had opportunities of their own and largely fluctuated between moments of promise and inconsistency.

With Harvey gone, the Orioles have many vacated starts to fill, leading to plenty of opportunity for the young and exciting pitching prospects to make an impact at the big league level.

Let’s get into it.

Projected #1 Starter: John Means

This is the easy one. Means has been the one bright spot in the Orioles’ rotation for the better part of the past 3 seasons and figures to have the #1 spot locked up assuming he is still with the team come Opening Day. Means pitched to a 3.62 ERA over 146.2 innings, striking out 134 batters while walking just 26. Above average fastball location sets up Means’ best pitch, his change-up. Among pitchers who faced at least 150 batters in 2021, Means’ change-up ranks top 15 in Statcast’s ‘Run Value’ and ‘Whiff%’ metrics. This pitch is consistently missing bats and throwing off hitters’ timing. Means’ curveball has also improved each of the last 3 seasons and has turned into a second viable out-pitch. And finally, let’s not forget his absolutely incredible no-hitter against the Mariners, ranked by ESPN as the best pitching performance of the entire 2021 season. Means looks to lead this rotation and vie for another all-star appearance.

Projected #2 Starter: Jordan Lyles

After signing a 1 year/$7M contract with the Orioles just before the lockout, Lyles figures to take the second spot in the Orioles’ starting rotation to start the season. Is Lyles an exciting signing by the Orioles? No, not really. Lyles does, however, provide the Orioles rotation with much needed innings. Lyles’ 180 innings pitched ranked 18th in the 2021 MLB season. For an Orioles pitcher, 180 innings would feel like 280. Ok, maybe not quite, but the last Orioles pitcher to pitch 180 innings in a season was Kevin Gausman back in 2017. The Orioles have not had great success signing veteran pitchers in the past few seasons, see Ubaldo Jimenez, but there is something to be said for a veteran presence in this otherwise very young and inexperienced rotation.

Projected #3 Starter: Bruce Zimmermann

The rest of the rotation is really up in the air, but Zimmerman fits nicely in the third spot. Acquired by the Orioles as part of the Kevin Gausman trade with the Atlanta Braves back in 2018, Zimmerman has yet to truly provide value to the Orioles. With that being said, Zimmerman showed potential in 2021. Despite a lackluster final season statline of a 5.04 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 56 K over 64.1 IP,  these numbers should improve as Zimmermann gains more MLB experience and improves his pitch efficiency.

Projected #4 Starter: Keegan Akin

Akin was one of the bigger disappointments among Orioles pitchers in 2021, pitching to a 2-10 record along with a 6.63 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over 95 innings. Akin was a second round draft pick in the 2016 MLB draft, and was a highly touted Orioles prospect ever since. Similar to Zimmerman, Akin had trouble pitching deep into ball games and often found himself getting in trouble with walks. Akin’s fastball, averaging 92MPH, has a top 30th percentile spin rate often causing hitters to underestimate its speed. The Orioles will likely give Akin a long look in the starting rotation with the hopes that the draft capital they spent on him years ago will finally pay off.

Projected #5 Starter: Zac Lowther

Another former second round pick by the Orioles, this time in the 2017 MLB draft, Lowther struggled in his first taste of big league action, pitching to a 1-3 record with a 6.67 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over 29.2 innings in 2021. Lowther’s stats don’t tell the entire story of his season, as he pitched fairly well outside of two 7 earned run performances lasting 2 and 2.1 innings in each respectively. Lowther also demonstrated high strikeout upside, averaging 9.1 SO/9 in 2021. Lowther’s curveball has above league-average spin-rate and has solid put-away pitch potential. As Lowther continues to develop, he has clear back-of-the-rotation potential.

Other Players to Consider:

Chris Ellis:

Signed off waivers in late August, Ellis pitched great for the Orioles down the stretch with a 2.15 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over 29.1 innings. Ellis could certainly earn a spot in the rotation if other starters begin to struggle or deal with injury, but could also serve as a valuable bullpen piece to eat up innings.

Mike Baumann:

A third-round draft pick by the Orioles in the 2017 MLB draft, Baumann is another pitcher looking to make a significant impact on the 2022 season. Baumann was dominant in the minors, pitching to a career 2.94 ERA. Expect Baumann to have a substantial role with the Orioles throughout the season even if he isn’t in the starting 5 from Opening Day.

Grayson Rodriguez:

At this point, it feels like Rodriguez needs to be mentioned whenever Orioles pitching is discussed. Now the top-ranked pitching prospect in the MLB, Rodriguez has done nothing but dominate the minor leagues, pitching to a career 19-7 record with a 2.41 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and an impressive 12.9 SO/9. Even if service time games are corrected in the forthcoming CBA, Rodriguez likely won’t have a spot in the starting rotation when the season begins. That said, he is simply too good to not earn a spot sooner rather than later.

While the inexperience and youth of the Orioles 2022 starting rotation will give fans some ups and downs throughout this season, the talent in the system is undeniable. May this season mark the beginning of the end to what has felt like a never-ending rebuild.