Swept out of St. Louis, the Baltimore Orioles arrive in Chicago sporting a 29-18 record, trailing the New York Yankees by 3 games in the American League East.
It’s 82 degrees here in Charm City as a I write this. Memorial Day weekend has arrived.
The ’24 season is no longer young.
Here we review what we’ve seen so far, and broach some questions on what comes next for the Birds.
Quick Hits:
1) I don’t feel like the O’s have played their best ball yet this year, yet they are on a 100 win pace. Two months into this season, I think my prevailing thoughts on the O’s are, “The Birds are both simultaneously one of the small handful of true World Series contenders, and also a roster with some legitimate questions.”
2) Gunnar Henderson turns 23 next Month. He’s on a 55 homer pace. I thought he’d be above average but not elite at SS, but he’s exceeded my expectations there too. He’s a ridiculous all-around talent.
3) The next 4-6 weeks for Cedric Mullins is incredibly important for him individually and for the O’s overall I think. His ’21 season was terrific, but at this point we can call it an outlier. In ’22, and ’23 he had a .721 OPS each year. Nothing to write home about, but when coupled with his range in CF; still a very valuable player. Right now though, he’s got an OPS under .600. That includes a .242 on-base %. As much ground as he covers, the glove isn’t good enough to sustain that complete lack of production offensively. I’d give him the next month + to turn things on. Everything is a lot simpler if he does.
4) If Mullins has to be replaced in CF, what’s the move? Seemingly, the move would be Colton Cowser taking over in CF. The eye can lie, but I’ve felt Cowser has been average ish in LF. As an indication of how the eye can lie, the defensive metrics have loved Cowser. Of course in limited samples, metrics can lie too. In any event, the hope would be that Cowser can be at-least average defensively in CF. If Cowser is in CF, that creates an opportunity for Austin Hays to again get more ab’s in LF. Of course, the issue there is Hays has started this year 9 for 61. If you make the decision to go with Cowser in CF, is Hays going to get going to the point you are again comfortable with him regularly starting in LF? My take here on May 23rd, is that I think Mullins is likely closer to the .721 OPS of the last two years vs. the sub .600 OPS this year. I’m also of the opinion that Hays is the .739 OPS guy he’s been over 1,850+ ML at-bats vs. this .401 OPS guy (2 xbh’s in 61 ab’s) we’ve seen so far this year. Again, playing things out, if Cowser takes over CF, and Hays doesn’t get going this next month, is Kyle Stowers going to find himself in a position for regular ab’s? Or maybe Ryan O’Hearn gets more time in LF, with Coby Mayo (when healthy) promoted and getting time at DH? An OF defense that features Stowers or O’Hearn regularly in LF, and Cowser in CF – would be a downgrade from ’23 OF defense that regularly featured Hays and Mullins.
5) John Means is back on the IL, which is discouraging. I’m not going to immediately write him off. Let’s see what news comes out over the next week. Hopefully it’s a minimal issue, and he’s back shortly. But I certainly get anyone who is currently scared this IL stint might be a precursor to more alarming news. When we previewed this season, the exciting part was thinking of what the Birds could look like if Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, and Means could stay relatively healthy and consistently available. If you lose Means for any real length of time, that’s a blow.
6) If Means isn’t available going forward, the starting pitching depth is further diminished (given that the O’s previously lost Tyler Wells to injury). A healthy Burnes, Bradish, Rodriguez trio is excellent. But there would suddenly be a lot of pressure on Cole Irvin and Dean Kremer to both stay health, and usable. Irvin has had a very solid beginning to his ’24 season. He’s doing exactly what you’d hope to get out of your 4th or 5th starter. Keep you in games, and give you a chance. Now if you look at him and all you see is smoke and mirrors, you might not have confidence he can maintain the current production, and I get that. But I look at his ’21 and ’22 seasons with Oakland, and have some belief he can hold-up as a back end starter. What I’ve said about Kremer a lot of times is that if you solely look at him as a back end starter, you’ll like him well enough. If you expect anything more than that, you’ll be left wanting more. Generally still feel like that, but he’s got to get the homers allowed (10 in 50 innings) under control a bit. Overall he’s made 9 starts, and 7 times he’s given the O’s a reasonable chance to win. You will take that from a 5th starter any day of the week. If you lose one of Irvin or Kremer to injury; you can stop-gap a bit with existing internal options. If you lose one of Burnes / Bradish / Rodriguez to any significant injury; I think you’d have to go outside of the organization and get a starting pitcher of some significance to remain a legitimate World Series contender.
7) The Orioles are 10th overall in Runs Scored. They are an upper 1/3 run scoring offense, because they are sporting MLB’s best overall Slugging Percentage. The main issue for the offense is that they are just 26th overall in On-Base %. Mullins, Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, and Tony Santander; we’re looking at you here.
8) Adley Rutschman had a .806 OPS as a rookie, and a .809 OPS last year. He’s at .810 this year. He’s destroying LHP, and below average vs. RHP. As a Catcher, he’s currently 35th in Pop Time.
9) Nice start to ’24 for Jordan Westburg. At some point he’ll hit some adversity, but his fanbase has certainly grown since the season began. Had Mayo not gone on the IL recently at Norfolk, I think the O’s were probably close to promoting Mayo to get regular time at 3rd, which would have had Westburg at 2nd. With Mayo’s injury, and Jackson Holliday not grabbing 2nd base in his 10 game audition; the primary benefactor currently has been Jorge Mateo. Mateo is fun to watch, and you feel good for him; but it’s also pretty easy for me to envision Holliday back in the bigs soon at 2nd, with Westburg then getting the majority of his time at 3rd. Looking beyond ’24, I’m still envisioning that the O’s will have Mayo and Heston Kjerstad getting regular time at 1st and DH at some point in ’25.
10) Mike Baumann is now a Seattle Mariner. Individually, there are a number of useful arms in the O’s pen. Collectively I think it’s too much to call the group a liability; but it’s not an intimidating group. Felix Bautista was touching rarified air last year. Without him, it’s not a surprise that they aren’t as good. I’m still thinking that adding a high-leverage reliever (or two) is the acquisition that the O’s will need to make by the trade deadline. The Orioles have more than enough system depth to make that happen. Things get a bit murkier if the shopping list starts to include an OF, and a mid-rotation or better Starting Pitcher.
May ends with the Orioles playing 4 games in Chicago, coming home to face Boston for 3, and beginning a 3 game set vs. Tampa Bay.
The regular season streak of not being swept has ended, and that’s okay.
It’s also okay that not everything currently looks great for the O’s.
There are still many more answers vs. questions.
Overall I find it highly encouraging that the Birds are on that 100 win pace, when I still feel like they have reason to believe they can play better.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.