Random Orioles Thoughts Before Opening Day

The Orioles begin their 2025 season Thursday in Toronto.
As the year starts, I think the O’s are the best team in the East, and probably the best team in the AL.
I think they go 92-70, and steadily look increasingly more formidable as the year progresses.

I’m not worried about Henderson starting the year on the IL.  The O’s are just being cautious with their best player.

I’m not worried about Bautista’s ‘health’, but I think his performance may be a bit up and down at-least the first few months.
Hopefully he goes from 95-97, to back to 100, and knows where it’s going.
Also hopefully by June the O’s are comfortable with using him back-to-back nights if necessary.
Though I’m not opposed to trying to have a set of basically A Day, and B Day relievers.

I am anxious about Rodriguez.
The upside of the O’s is diminished if he misses significant time in my opinion.
Hopefully he’s back soon, and regularly posts up.

You hope / expect Eflin holds up all year and ideally he pitches like a league average 3rd.
You hope that Rodriguez is back soon, and holds up.

You hope that out of Gibson, Morton, Sugano, Kremer, Povich; that 2-3 of them are regularly taking the ball every 5th day, and giving you a chance.

If that happens, the O’s will win a lot of games.
And maybe / probably at the deadline the O’s will go and find another starter that slots in with Eflin and Rodriguez at the top of the rotation.

Having these guys – Gibson, Morton, Sugano, Kremer – is not a bad thing.
What often cripples teams is when they get 30-50 starts over a season from guys who aren’t a realistic league average 4th or 5th starter.
That’s when teams get taken out of games early, and your pen gets extended.

If these guys take the ball every 5th (Gibson and Morton have a long history of that… Kremer has made 56 starts the last two seasons), I think most of the time they’ll give you a chance.
And if age catches up to Gibson or Morton, or Sugano struggles with the transition (or tires out), it’s a little bit easier because you aren’t as dependent on any one of them.
I think many O’s fans will hate on these guys during the year for pitching like league average 4th and 5th starters.

I expect my favorite Oriole to watch his year will be Sugano.

It’s a lot to be 35 and making this transition.
Different ball. More travel. More heat, less domes.
More ML power.
But I’m expecting a pro’s pro.
He’s accomplished so much at a level that I don’t think gets enough respect.
I think he’ll give up more homers this year as he faces more power, but I also think his k’s go up against more free swingers.
The control should be excellent.
The pitchability should be excellent.
If he keeps his velo in the 92-93 range, I think he’ll be very useful in the innings he does provide.
I am concerned about how many innings he can give.
149 in 2022, 86 in 2023, 156.2 in 2024.

Kittredge will be back in a few months, and that will lift the pen.
If Cano is locked in to the start the year, that will make me feel better about the pen early on.

I go into the season expecting nothing from Bradish, and Wells; but there is potential that they do contribute towards the end of the year.

The O’s finished 4th overall in runs scored last year.
3rd in slugging %, 11th in on-base %.

They were one of the best offenses in baseball, even with the 2nd half often being a struggle.

I think the offense will again be very productive.

When O’Neill plays, he will replace most of the power that Santander took to Toronto.
When he doesn’t, Kjerstad should help.

Mountcastle will enjoy the wall moving in.
I’d like to see Holliday hit the ground running.

I don’t know that Mountcastle and O’Hearn hold off Mayo and Kjerstad all year, but multiple options is not a problem.

This could be Mullins last year with the O’s.
Would be nice to see him finish his tenure strong.

I’ll really enjoy watching a lineup that features Henderson, Rutschman, Cowser, Westburg, and Holliday.

There is some pressure on Rutschman to rebound from his atrocious 2nd half.
The offense finishing 4th in runs last year, means it was a good offense; but it did look a bit thin once he went so cold.
His numbers through June were largely in-line (maybe a little better) with his ’22, and ’23 seasons.
Would expect a return to his previous output.

The Orioles have the necessary depth to make a move in-season if they need to.
They’ve got flexibility with the roster overall (maybe less so in the pen with the lack of options).

If the O’s got to Memorial Day and were under water, I could see Hyde being in trouble at that point.
But I think the O’s play well, and he gets through the season.
Hyde is more likely to be judged by if the O’s get to the playoffs and don’t advance.
If the O’s get to the trade deadline and they look like a contender that needs a bit more; Elias will take a beating from fans if they don’t obtain some help.
Of course, Elias might look at Kittredge, and Bradish as the ‘additions.’
If you believe in the ’25 O’s capabilities like me, or you are skeptical; it doesn’t matter.
They don’t get to play last year’s Wild Card series loss to KC over.
They don’t get to replay 2023’s ALDS series loss to Texas.
The ’25 O’s have to earn their way back to October to get a chance to try again.

Starting with the Jays in a couple of days, it’s on the O’s (the guys in the uniform) to show up each night and start accumulating wins with whoever is available.
That means not looking over their shoulders and waiting for Henderson, Rodriguez, Kittredge, Bradish to save them.

The vibes in Birdland aren’t great to start the year.
Lots of worry to be found about the current injuries, and belief the rotation isn’t good enough.
People upset the O’s didn’t do more in the off-season.

I think they win the East, and make the playoffs.
While I think the post-season is largely short-sample randomness, I believe the O’s have as a good a chance as any to represent the AL in the World Series.

The mindset needs to be, “Win tonight, win this series, have a winning week, have a winning month.”
Start stacking wins.
Play winning baseball.
Improve each month.

Earn your way back to October.